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By Nick Berney.

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday’s Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a good to soft track with rain forecast.

5. Monfelicity is lightly raced with an improver’s ratings profile over the middle-long distance range. She led and was suited last start but will have the tactical map/starting price advantage over her main danger.

Dangers: 1. Aquileon is an import third-up into his second Australian preparation. He gets a significant jockey change in Hugh Bowman, and the step out to 2300m looks ideal. 6. Kingdom Of Gold drops 3kg and is rock-hard fit and will run the trip. 2. Oakfield Pinto has been consistent and maps as the other likely leader.

How to play it: Monfelicity WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Monfelicity runs second at Newcastle on February 12

1. Barney Rabble has been racing well and consistently all preparation. He is coming out of time/sectional merit races and was a winner at this track and distance three starts ago. The Allan Kehoe colt is on a 9-day backup and has proven he can handle the speed/pressure of the squib distance.

Dangers: 4. Greenheart is back in distance and maps to settle worse than mid-field. However, with plenty of race tempo engaged, expect him to race with cover and be storming down the outside late. 6. Tempestas raced fresh first-up and will improve from the run. 3. Zalini broke through for her maiden win at this track and distance 12 days ago and draws barrier one.

How to play it: Barney Rabble WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Barney Rabble runs second at Wyong on February 15

The raw two-year-old colt 5. To His Credit was a nice hidden run when on debut at Warwick Farm over 1300m. He was not suited after settling last in a very slow pace and ran on ok with building sectional splits. The prospect of more speed engaged and the bigger Newcastle track suits. Look for him storming home late.

Dangers: 4. Standing Order is a first-starter who has trialled well enough for this and has been well backed on early betting. Forget 1. Affidavit’s first two runs after being slow to recover on both occasions. It’s worth mentioning he was well-fancied in the market late in betting when racing at Warwick Farm last start. 7. Pathos trialled ok but was strong past the post and the 1300m on debut suits. 6. Williamsburg is honest and receives key gear changes.

How to play it: To His Credit WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

To His Credit on debut at Warwick Farm February 9

1. Sabino will have to overcome a tricky draw with a short run to the first turn from the 1200m start. He was brave first-up last preparation at Gosford when racing wide on a fast pace, and the form out of that race has since been proven. The gelding has had no official trial, but the stable is renowned for having its runners fit and ready to run well first-up. In addition, the G Ryan & S Alexiou training partnership is in form, striking at 8.5% profit on turnover from their last 100 runners.

Dangers: 3. Beholder was checked and blocked at a critical stage in a time race at this track and distance last start. 7. Latin Lyric is crying out for a win after being consistently unlucky and has dominant rating figures over these. However, some query on her Newcastle form. 4. I Am Mighty is the map horse and has been racing well on the country circuit.

How to play it: Sabino ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Sabino first-up last preparation on July 25

7. Dalchini has returned well this prep after producing a career peak figure first-up with a slashing run at Warwick Farm over 1200m. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when comparing time, class and additional factors historically. After being restrained early in a big field, the three-year-old filly had too much to do and got too far back. Although, having an interrupted passage, punters intelligence recorded her final 600m/400m/200m sectionals in 34.01/22.33/11.39, which were the fastest individual closing sectionals of the entire meeting. She has an improver’s profile and expect her to roll forward from the softer draw and be hard to hold out.

Dangers: The Chris Waller-trained 4. Hollywood North ran fourth in the same race as Dalchini last start but rises 2kg. However, the combination of fitness, extra distance, map favours and a bigger track may give him the chance to turn the tables. 10. Nullify should’ve won last start after having no luck in the straight. After getting clear, she hit the line well, and all her peak figures have come on soft tracks. D-Day 11. Ruinart who always promised potential and receives the blinkers for the first time. 2. Devil Racer is fit now and will go forward.

How to play it: Dalchini WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Dalchini runs third at Warwick Farm on February 9

Open maiden and multiple potential improvers/first starters engaged. 12. Typhoon Taavi ran strong sustained sectionals at Hawkesbury over 1100m first up in a fast time race. When asked, the lightly-raced filly sprinted well and tried hard running second with a gap to third. She brings a race experience edge and the best last start individual rating figure relative to the opposition.

Dangers: 10. Why Doubt who has been restrained early in both starts this prep from wide gates. She ran the fastest last 200m split of the entire meeting at Nowra over 1100 last start in a sizzling 10.83. The Mark Newnham trained filly has multiple winning ratings and expect an aggressive ride with a significant barrier change. 3. Endorsement is a first starter for Chris Waller and has trialled three times in preparation for his first-up assignment. Hugh Bowman has ridden the gelding in each of his trials, and the latest heat produced the fastest last overall 600m sectional in 34.35 of the morning. 5. Pyramid Of Fire and 8. Super Freds are knockout hopes.

How to play it: Typhoon Tavi WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Why Doubt WIN ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Odds & Evens: EVEN.

Typhoon Taavi first-up at Hawkesbury on February 8

The first of the Polytrack Provincial-midway Championship heats and 3. Rustic Steel is the early favourite after an impressive return first-up over 1200m at Randwick in a high rating race. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when comparing time, class and additional factors historically with decisive margins throughout. The four-year-old gelding gets in well at the weights under the race conditions and has key factors in his favour. The step-up in distance suits which follows his strong second-up profile and all career peak figures have come on rain-affected ground. Additionally, Hugh Bowman sticks and last time he raced at his home track, he won dominantly.

Dangers: 2. Petronius mixes his form but drops sharply in grade and gets in well at the weights. He has trialled well between runs and represents value. 7. Astero, ticking over well, is ready to peak back onto a wet track. 8. Secretively and 15. Oakfield Arrow have been racing consistently lately and will both roll forward. 16. Syzygy Stars maps well and is fitter for this assignment.

How to play it: Rustic Steel ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Rustic Steel runs third at Randwick on February 5

Tricky race to finish and leaning towards the three-year-old 5. Sing A Love Song after finally breaking through for his well-deserved maiden win. He has had strong form-lines throughout his career and now has the chance to go on with it. Multiple key chances are first-up here, and the Gary Moore trained colt can use fitness to his advantage on a 9-day backup. Tim Clark takes the ride with a 19.9% strike rate at Newcastle and a 16.7% profit on turnover.

Dangers: 2. Black Bolt should’ve won first-up last preparation when racing in the inferior ground and having no luck over the final stages. Expect him to be in the finish if he can overcome the wide draw. 4. Dark Rebel has been gelded and may have last shot with any rain to his benefit. Peter and Paul Snowden have taken over the training duties of 6. Game Theory and watch for late betting moves. Add 12. Stellar Performer to exotics who has a knockout profile.

How to play it: Sing A Love Song ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Sing A Love Song winning at Wyong on February 15

Best Bet: Race 5 # 7 – Dalchini

Next Best: Race 7 # 3 – Rustic Steel

Value Bet: Race 6 # 12 – Typhoon Taavi

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday’s Newcastle meeting