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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Friday’s Newcastle meeting. Selections based on a soft to heavy track and monitor for any bias with rain forecast.

The three-year-old colt 5. Circling stepped up in trip at Goulburn last start and relished the challenge to hit the line hard and win. He has always promised potential coming out of time/sectional merit races and gets his chance to go on with it now. Further, he maps well with a soft draw and is one of the only two last start winners engaged. It’s worth noting the trainer/jockey combination of G Ryan/S Alexiou, and jockey Jay Ford is striking at 14% with a 7.7% POT when teaming up together.

Dangers: 2. Sound Of Cannons and 8. Flying Witness are well suited at the weights under the race conditions. Although Sound Of Cannons hasn’t won in a long-time, he was strong last start to the line where he ran the race’s fastest closing splits albeit run to suit. The drop from a Benchmark 72 to a class one on the rain-affected ground will give him his chance to break through. Flying Witness has been up for a long-time this prep but maps to get all favours and Tommy Berry rides for the first time. 1. Singapura is a knockout chance whose career peak figure is at this track/distance.

How to play it: Circling WIN ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Circling wins his maiden at Goulburn on February 17

A tricky two-year-old event. 5. Victorine was well backed last start at Wyong when was $2.25 to $1.90 late in betting and proceeded to run second after being not suited. She made an early move at the 600m and Punters Intelligence recorded her running the fifth-fastest final 200m of the entire meeting in 11.52 with a gap to third. The James Cummings-trained filly has improved throughout the preparation and is ready to peak third-up over 1400m.

Dangers: 3. Okataina was disappointing first-up but will be fitter and looks the likely leader. 7. A Lot More Love has been honest and will be thereabouts again.4. Affogato Girl was a dominant winner at the Gold Coast 14 days ago on a heavy track, and that figure lines up relative to her rivals.

How to play it: Victorine WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Victorine runs second at Wyong on February 15

4. Unwritten is unlucky to be a maiden with multiple factors against last preparation that cost him winning. He resumed 19 days ago at Nowra in a fast pace/time race and ran on strongly, posting the second-fastest last 600m of the entire meeting in 32.82. Additionally, there was a gap to third, and the winner was subsequently well fancied in the market at Goulburn to be narrowly beaten, which confirmed the form. Rachel King may have the option to roll forward and the three-year-old gelding is ready to win.

Dangers: The English import 1. Gwan So was every possible chance first-up on Australian debut to run second at Goulburn. He does look to map to get complete control and will be fitter. 9. Legal Choice always promised to come back an improved filly in her second preparation and her first-up run at Canterbury had hidden merit. She was unsuited by the pace and tight-turning track, however she still managed to run the sixth fastest final 400m of the night in 23.07. Expect her to be running on strongly out to 1400m. 2. Naval Seal has trialled well with Hugh Bowman riding, and breeding suggests he’ll handle the conditions.

How to play it: Unwritten WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Unwritten first-up at Nowra on February 13

No genuine speed is engaged, and any tactic changes will be critical. 3. Barrichello is a consistent type and proven on soft/heavy going. He returned a career peak figure first-up in a high rating race at Canterbury after being restrained from a wide-draw and getting too far back in a moderate pace. The four-year-old gelding sprinted strongly, recording the fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting in 11.31. Tommy Berry may have the option to roll forward with the lack of pace or the wide barrier may be to his advantage if there is evidence of bias.

Dangers: 7. Loch Eagle resumes after trialling well without blinkers and is well-placed back to maiden grade at set weights. He improved each run last preparation before being tested in the Group 3 Spring Stakes, where he had every chance battling on ok. That form has held up well since on the metropolitan scale, and this looks like an ideal starting point back on the provincial circuit. Expect Hugh Bowman to be aggressive early and try and control the race. 11. Dubai Showgirl has had two quiet trials and can sprint fresh. 6. Givara is on debut and has trialled well enough in preparation.

How to play it: Barrichello WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Barrichello first-up at Canterbury on December 18

The undefeated 6. Fleet Air Arm returned with another dominant win at this track and distance 27 days ago on a soft 7. Although only one turn, he raced wide and showed acceleration sprinting the fastest 400m-200m split of the entire meeting in 10.88. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. The four-year-old gelding is a lightly raced improver on an upward ratings spiral and has key attributes to make the step up in grade.

Dangers: 2. Delexo was checked/blocked at a critical stage and savaged the line once clear last start at Randwick. He arguably should’ve won that race and will roll forward with a positive map over the squib distance. 5. Athelric is first-up after a gelding operation and trialling well. He raced in group company last preparation and a late market watch with Nash Rawiller to ride. Rawiller, from his last 100 rides, is striking at a monstrous 24.5% profit on turnover. 1. Remlaps Gem has an outstanding record and is coming off a peak performance last start at the Gold Coast over 900m in heavy conditions. 4. Jerle is suited over further but is proven on rain-affected going.

How to play it: Fleet Air Arm WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Fleet Air Arm wins first-up at Newcastle on February 5

8. Wolfburn sat outside the leader in a fast pace/time race last start at Wyong and stuck on bravely. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors with two subsequent placegetters. He has been gelded this preparation and has improved in each run and looks ready to peak fourth-up. The three-year-old, who is rock-hard fit, will roll forward from the middle draw and be hard to get past if he can repeat his last start figure.

Dangers: 14. We’ve Got Tonight missed the start first-up at Goulburn and just got too far back running the race’s fastest closing sectionals. The rise in distance, rain-affected ground and a significant jockey change put her into calculations. The Chris Waller-trained 2. Big Short is ready to peak third-up and the bigger track suits. 6. Sonic The Hedgehog and 11. Facetime have knockout profiles and must be included.

How to play it: Wolfburn E/W ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Wolfburn's last start at Wyong on February 15

The English import 12. Dajraan was impressive, winning and running a very fast time in style on his Australian debut when carrying 61kg. He was honest second-up running third but raced slightly flat after the high-pressure first-up effort. The four-year-old’s profile and overseas figures suggest he is ready to peak third-up and brings one of the highest last start rating figures relative to the field. Expect him to roll forward, dropping 6kg and should be suited with only an even pace anticipated. Each-way.

Dangers: 10. Through The Cracks has been slowly away and caught too far back in the run his last two starts. Additionally, he was not suited and had the bias against when running on ok at Randwick last start. Some query back in distance but is fit and ready to win. 3. Riodini was locked in a speed duel first-up and faded. He has the starting price advantage over some of his rivals, and bouncing back into the winner’s circle won’t shock. 2. Nimalee and 9. Wandabaa will excel on the rain-affected going and must go into all exotics.

How to play it: Dajraan E/W ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Dajraan runs third at Randwick on February 19

14. Zelady Luck looked smart when winning on debut at Goulburn last preparation and ran fast time. The three-year-old filly showed key racing attributes and ran strong sustained sectionals throughout beating the promising Mayrose. Some query over the 1200 first-up, but she returns after three solid trials without blinkers. She gets key factors in her favour with a positive map, rain-affected ground, and blinkers go on for the first time.

Dangers: 7. Shanjomi is down in grade, maps well and will take fitness benefit from her solid first-up effort at Warwick Farm. Add 9. Flash Point's past figures line up who has had no luck her last few runs. She gets a significant jockey change in Hugh Bowman and barrier 1. 13. What A Peach was wide in a form race and receives blinkers for the first time.

How to play it: Zelady Luck WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Zelady Luck's debut win at Goulburn on August 9

Best Bet: Race 5 # 6 – Fleet Air Arm.

Next Best: Race 6 # 8 – Wolfburn E/W.

All the fields, form and replays for Friday’s Newcastle meeting