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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Thursday's $150,000 Polytrack Provincial-Midway Championships Qualifier (1400m) at Newcastle.

1. Northern Eyes (Kim Waugh, Wyong): Fair to say he had every chance when resuming in the previous qualifier held here at the start of the month, he was under pressure early in the straight and wasn’t pressured when he was beaten. But he’s never been a real first-up horse. He was a winner second-up last prep then won another three on end after that including a 1400m Midway at Randwick. So expect he’s fitter and with a handy draw he could be a sharp improver.

2. Overriding (Nathan Doyle, Newcastle): She’s been a bit disappointing in some respects this time in, have to forgive her Hawkesbury failure as she didn’t get a shot at them but last time out couldn’t offer any excuses. She ran up to go straight past them about 200m out and just battled from there to be beaten two lengths. That was her first unplaced effort on her home track. She’s better than that, draw doesn’t really matter though connections would probably like a bit softer. On her best she’s in it, on latest she’s a place hope.

Northern Eyes (Pic: Steve Hart).

3. Matcha Latte (Sara Ryan, Wyong): Put the writing on the wall with a big first-up effort off an almost six month break where he sat on the speed, hit the front early in the straight and was only collared in the last couple of strides. Solid favourite in betting there and was gallant. Classy gelding who was placed in the Cameron at Group 3 level at this track in September. He’s sure to be fitter and draws to get every advantage. Clearly the horse to beat and will be hard to get past.

4. Valimi (Kris Lees, Newcastle): We haven’t seen the best of this import in his three Australian starts to date but he does have the sort of set up to show something. Started right in the market last time out at the Sunshine Coast in January and sat handy before conceding a couple of lengths in fifth. Comes through a sharp 900m trial won by Private Harry, and we’ve seen Harlem Queen run well out of this heat, where the trip was always going to be too short for him but he was sound. Draws nicely and is entitled to find some form.

5. French Ruler (John Sargent, Randwick): Lightly raced three-year-old who has shown a good deal of promise and was placed in the Spring Stakes over the mile at this track back in November. Caught the eye first-up at Rosehill then just bumped into a smart filly when denied by Snow In May in the Canberra Guineas. Potentially will give away a start from the draw but he’s third-up now so close to a peak performance.

6. Flying Argyle (Paul Perry, Newcastle): In-form local who broke through for his maiden win on his home track in February before heading to Scone and repeating the dose despite a betting drift. He is on the way up so that’s in his favour and being an on pacer the draw is a plus for him but have to raise doubts about the depth of what he’s beaten compared to his opposition in this race. Can see him running a cheeky race but likely to be outclassed.

7. Wooloowin (Nathan Doyle, Newcastle): Highly promising mare with a great record and will be fresh since scoring at the Sunshine Coast in early January. Generally she’s a backmarker, or at least off pace, so the barrier might not be a factor with her. Tempo and whether you can run on will be more significant for her. She breezed home well in a recent trial behind a runaway leader so she’s in good spirits heading into this race. If it’s a down the outside day he’s an enormous chance but keep safe regardless.

8. Harlow Mist (John Sargent, Randwick): Bit of a hit and miss type of mare but if she’s on she’s capable of putting herself into the finish. Shade unlucky not to win in a 1600m Midway two starts back then we’ll never know where she would have finished in the qualifier at Hawkesbury a month ago. She’s still not out. Had a tickover trial and if she gets the right flow into the race it wouldn’t shock if she goes close.

9. Art Volant (Richard & Will Freedman, Rosehill): Attacked the line nicely into third at Hawkesbury in the first qualifier then ran right up to it to win comfortably at Warwick Farm against the mares. She’s won at this track, she draws well, jockey knows her, and she’s racing right at the top of her game at the moment. She’d only have to hold her form, and have even luck, and she can be in the finish.

10. Gold Pattern (John Thompson, Randwick): Drifter in betting and started big odds when safely held first-up at Canterbury a few weeks ago. That said it was a nice run in the context of she’s never won first-up and closed the race off to be beaten just over two lengths. She was never going to be in the placings but that was 1250m fresh and she’s now up to her preferred distance range. Won twice at this track and had she not drawn the outside barrier she’d be right among the major chances. Will need luck but not out of it.

11. Lounerse (David Atkins, Newcastle): Narrow winner of a BM66 on the Beaumont track two starts ago then led them up and was reeled in on the main course two weeks back. This is much harder than what she’s been meeting of late and she’ll either have to work to push forward or concede ground to get some cover. Couldn’t make a strong case in this field.

12. Kind Words (Kris Lees, Newcastle): Handy mare on her day but the question will be whether 1400m is just too sharp for her. Ran fourth in a Queensland Oaks last year and her best effort last prep was when she got to 2000m and right back to a Class 1 and she cantered in as the market expected. Midfield in a G2 mares races at Flemington before a break. Given her first-up record and the trip she’s looking up against it but suppose the stable shouldn’t be underestimated.

Art Volant (Pic: Bradley Photos)

13. Pleasure Artist (Richard & Will Freedman, Rosehill): Quite an interesting runner first-up since contesting the VRC Oaks where she ran a respectable fifth. Got within a couple of lengths of Swiftfalcon over a mile earlier in the spring. She’s had the two trials and poked through to edge out Movin Out in the latest of them. With the wide gate she’ll have to be going back, be looking for her to be running on but she should find this sharp in this company.

14. Bestower (Kris Lees, Newcastle): Something of a professional placegetter last time in three seconds and a third from five starts in the prep. Arguably should have won the last run before a spell where she blew the start by 8-10 lengths and went down half a length, albeit over 1800m on a heavy. She has a good record overall without being exposed to the level of some of her opposition in this race. Has run well fresh in the past though second-up is stronger, a place wouldn’t shock.

15. Rubi’s Serve (Mark Minervini, Newcastle): Consistent mare who showed she could be up to this level with a closing fourth in the previous qualifier at this track, finishing not far from Matcha Latte on the line. She did start $41 as it was a step up for her and given the wide gate and the amount of head start she’s likely to be generous odds again. Will need some luck but if she gets the right run she could match last start.

16. Imposant (Kris Lees, Newcastle): Freshened up going into the qualifier at Hawkesbury on March 8 which turned into a sit and sprint with the first two home dominating on the speed. Loomed a bit but ultimately couldn’t go on with it. Fitter given the six week gap between runs there and back on her home track. She has run some handy races and won’t have to do any work from the inside gate so she’s another who could place without surprising.

SPEED MAP: Matcha Latte has drawn to find the fence first and could hold the lead, wouldn't surprise if he looks to take the spot third on the fence either. Northern Eyes can race handy and the likes Valimi and Lounerse will look to be in the first four or five. Flying Argyle is the other who has shown a liking for being in a forward spot. Doesn't look a fast race on paper.

SELECTIONS:
3 MATCHA LATTE
5 French Ruler
7 Wooloowin
9 Art Volant

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's meeting at Newcastle