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By Neil Evans

Track likely improving Heavy 9 and rail out 2m

We open with a small field over the mile on a heavy surface. Ultra consistent four-year-old 3. Satness is very fit deep into his prep, and suited on a heavy track back at home where he's only missed a place once in five runs. Won his maiden here four starts back, and has been in the money in three runs since. Was due to go around in last Thursday's cancelled Gosford meeting, yet shapes up even better here.

Dangers: Big watch on rival local mare 5. Nautical Miss who has trialled since a narrow maiden win here five weeks ago; while last start maiden winner 6. Mehajir heads the rest fourth-up.

How to play it: Satness to win
Odds and Evens: Split a special

Tough five-year-old 3. Bak Da Man hasn't always lived up to his ability, but remains lightly raced with a handy record in rain-affected ground. Was well backed when missing narrowly from just off the speed in the Pt Macquarie Cup, and ready to strike now fourth-up.

Dangers: Home track three-year-old 7. Extreme Freedom will relish a sharp drop in class from metro Listed company, and can be ridden quieter here from a wide draw. Metro mare 2. Credit Crunch is a pure wet tracker who surged home late to win a country CL3 five weeks ago on a Soft 7, and boasts an even better record in these conditions. Gap to the rest headed by 5. Lady Redwood at bigger odds.

How to play it: Bak Da Man to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Very open and testing affair in these conditions over this journey. Really taken by the fast-finishing effort of three-year-old Iffraaj colt 8. Natural Nine at only his second start. Suited over a bit more ground again settling back from the wide draw, bred to thrive in the wet, and is in very capable metro hands.

Dangers: Well bred 2. Long Tycoon will take great improvement from that honest first-up effort at Warwick Farm, although has to get over from the wide gate here. Included in exotics 12. Pierossa second-up and a stablemate of the top selection; and Godolphin-trained 14. Tradition reloading off a five week freshen-up.

How to play it: Natural Nine each way
Odds and Evens: Evens

Like metro filly 11. On The Beach who draws wide, but reloads for only her second start off a dominant soft track trial win.

Dangers: Resuming filly 18. Frontenac has produced two progressive trials; and Rubick three-year-old 1. Bokeem debuts as a gelding in blinkers off two forward trials.

How to play it: On The Beach to win
Odds and Evens: Split

Progressive mare 9. Principessa is a good wet tracker who found the line well first-up in a handy metro maiden. Carries 1kg less here, and drawn to get ideal cover around midfield before launching late.

Dangers: Capable mare 5. Argentado is a big threat, resuming off two smart trials in ground he thrives in, drawn to get to the middle. Expecting 7. Definitely Maybe to return a much stronger mare for her second prep behind two soft track trials; while UK-bred and lightly raced 4. Shrill Whistle resuming off two trials is a market watch.

How to play it: Principessa to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

Keen on five-year-old mare 3. Russbuss who peaks fourth-up in suitable going as long as the inside section is not a no-go zone. Charged home to miss by a whisker in deeper metro class, and the eight day back-up returning to a bigger track is a further plus, and this is a weakened affair.

Dangers: Must keep safe too tough country mare 11. Girls Are Ready who has been given eight weeks since charging home from a mile back in weaker company, but she drops in weight and grows a leg in heavy going. Include both 7. Wilful Spirit fourth-up; and 10. Desi Girl resuming; in exotic bets.

How to play it: Russbuss to win
Odds and Evens: Odds

The boys' edition is almost as open, although in raptures about the big value of provincial five-year-old 7. Da Nang Star third-up and six weeks between runs. Was swamped late behind a smart sprinter at Newcastle last time, but has since trialled well, and will get through the ground big time.

Dangers: : Keep safe 8. Kayobi who comes to hand quickly although drawn off the track; while 12. Lohnraki who draws the fence; and 15. Man Of Reign off a dominant heavy track maiden win; both go through trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Da Nang Star each way
Odds and Evens: Split

Provincial mare 4. Sebrenco is ready to win, dropping back from deeper metro class fourth-up.

Dangers: Improving five-year-old 5. Dom Tycoon held his ground okay in very trying conditions first-up, and this is weak for the class; while 2. All Machiavellian heads the rest third-up

How to play it: Sebrenco to win
Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS:
R1 3. SATNESS
R5 9. PRINCIPESSA

BEST VALUE:
R8 4. SEBRENCO

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Kembla Grange meeting