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By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail out 3m from 1100m to 450m & true the remainder.

Seemingly a race in two to kick us off on a track that might slip back into soft range if the predicted rain arrives. Improving four-year-old 2. Impunity is the clear value deep into the prep. Has worked home into a place in three runs up to metro BM 65 grade, and drawn to park right behind the speed, he's ready to win again coming back in distance 23 days between runs, and was preferred here to a tougher race at Wednesday's Newcastle meeting.

Dangers: Early hot favourite 1. Hiawatha was scratched from that same winnable BM 68 at Newcastle to be saved for this. Comes back from an even tougher grade at Rosehill over further where he ran home okay after being backed from $4.40 into $3.70. Advantaged by the set weight conditions as well at this lower level three weeks between runs, and blinkers being added makes him the obvious and clear threat. Gap to the rest headed by 8. That's Outstanding who draws inside and can run into the minor money.

How to play it: Impunity to win

Lightly raced and progressive 7. The Grey is trained on the track, and well placed to break through second-up. Came off a 12 week break to chase home a smart winner here 16 days ago after being well supported in betting, and stays at the distance with a more senior jockey taking over.

Dangers: 6. Kingsland, a three-year-old by Dundeel, is a big watch on debut behind two progressive trials bolting in the latest at this track, and can run the quinella. Included in all exotic plays, 4. Donwon who draws the fence fourth-up with winkers going on.

How to play it: The Grey to win

This looks an ideal maiden for honest and improving mare 9. Al Flores who is over the odds deep into the prep, especially if the forecast thunderstorm arrives, being supremely bred for rain-affected going. Placed in her last couple at this track from just off the speed, and suited coming back a furlong in trip.

Dangers: Naturally, debutant 2. Shambretta, a four-year-old by Sham Express from the John O'Shea & Tom Charlton yard at Randwick, will be hard to hold out from a low draw, and having looked strong winning the most recent of three progressive trials after being challenged in the lead a long way from home. 4. Reasonable is tracking to peak third-up, with blinkers being added. Debutant mare 5. Capilana was even through the line in the second of two trials; while lightly raced 7. Isla Negra can run into the minor money from the inside gate, with winkers added.

How to play it: Al Flores to win

Tough and wide race, with a couple of first starters in the mix. That said, progressive 1. Carnegie Hill has the benefit of race experience, and can go one better here after running home late here first-up to miss by a whisker. That was only his third start, and staying at the trip, with a leading jockey taking over, he's well placed to break through especially if the track is downgraded.

Dangers: Big watch on well bred colt 3. First Mission, improving into his third start after chasing gamely at Wyong 19 days ago. 7. Lone Artist resumes for only his second start off two progressive trials. Watch the betting too on 8. Rampazetto, resuming as a gelding with blinkers going on behind two quiet trials. Included in trifecta and first four bets locally trained 9. Swift Gun who has been freshened via a trial; and 10. Tomba, a colt by Hellbent on debut for the Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald stable, who won the second of two recent trials.

How to play it: Carnegie Hill to win

Not much between the leading contenders over a mile here, but settled on improving four-year-old 2. How Much Better who is tracking nicely to peak third-up over a bit more ground. Has stalked the speed & run home okay in two runs back at this level, and hits full fitness now in a race with a shade less depth.

Dangers: Home track mare 5. Mahogany Girl hasn't missed a place in five career starts, including a dominant maiden win here two runs ago. Again rolls forward to park just off the speed and off the fence, and will be strong late. 3. Lucky Bay will relish a drop back from metro company fifth-up; while 1. Jacobs Time with a much-needed 3kg claim; and 6. Nantucket Island also back in class third-up; head the rest.

How to play it: How Much Better to win

In what is now a very thin race for this level, honest mare 6. Opal Fields can pounce dropping back from metropolitan opposition, and from a handy trailing draw.

Dangers: 4. Glorioso likes this track and is well capable of running into the money late; while 3. Impulsivity can run into the money first-up off a handy trial.

How to play it: Opal Fields to win

The boys' edition over the same trip offers a little more depth, and best suited to lightly raced 2. Cassiel coming back a shade in distance third-up with winkers going on and 23 days between runs. Has hit the line impressively into a place without much luck in both runs back, and drawn to do no work back on the inside, only needs clear air from the 350m.

Dangers: Locally trained 4. Cryptonic won his maiden impressively first-up; and 5. Missile Seeker resumes off an easy trial.

How to play it: Cassiel to win

In another weaker affair, 6. Sarrismo can make it two from two, 16 days after digging in hard from the front to claim his maiden here on debut. Again drawn to dictate over the same distance, and bred to handle any rain-affected ground if the downgrades arrive.

Dangers: Watch the betting closely on 4. Tuned who went within a whisker of making it two straight to start her career at Kembla 23 days ago. 5. Magic Shadow is over the odds coming back in grade from a handy trailing draw.

How to play it: Sarrismo to win

BEST BETS:
R2 7. THE GREY
R4 1. CARNEGIE HILL

BEST VALUE:
R7 2. CASSIEL

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting