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Neil Evans' Tips For Hawkesbury (Thursday)

By Neil Evans

Good 4 and the rail true:

Race 1 SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1600m):

The maiden milers kick off the traditional Ladies Day Cup meeting, and progressive 5. Squeezebox is primed to break through third-up over a furlong further. Did some work from the wide gate at Kembla, but still ran home okay behind a smart and dominant winner.

Dangers: 1. Blacklist can improve sharply third-up, with the blinkers off after fading late here over this trip behind Powers Of Opal who is a leading chance in Thursday's Group 1 Oaks. 6. Telecom got home well from near the back on debut at Scone. 7. The Beast caught the eye charging late to miss by a neck on debut in a weaker country maiden; while 2. My Shalom is looking for this longer trip after running home okay here third-up.

How to play it: Squeezebox to win

Race 2 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Shapes as a head-to-head match race here, with talented and lightly raced colt 7. Superhero the one to beat second-up. Was given plenty of time after tackling strong two-year-old company through early winter, and signalled the best is ahead by flashing home first-up to miss by a whisker at Warwick farm. Carries only 1kg more back to provincial level over 100m further, and will relish the bigger track.

Dangers: 5. Gorbachev is the logical and clear threat after finishing close-up in two tough efforts to start his career, but is still a shade under the odds from a tricky draw. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Neviim who worked home okay on debut at Scone.

How to play it: Superhero to win

Race 3 FILLIES & MARES MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):

Tough and progressive filly 7. Diddle Dumpling has stifled early betting here, and with good reason. Worked home impressively to beat all bar the winner first-up off a four week break at Rosehill before again hitting the line late in the Group 3 Reginald Allen to finish just over a length from Aleiana who then thrashed Group 3 opposition last Saturday at Flemington.

Dangers: Doubt there are any all being equal, but 8. Starphistocated can run the quinella from the inside draw after running home well at Newcastle on debut. Include improving mare 3. I Am Wild third-up off a freshening; 4. Isla Negra and 9. Suvathi on debut; in wider trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Diddle Dumpling to win

Race 4 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (2100m):

Not much between a few of these. Despite mixed form this prep, 7. Whatadilemma can claim an overdue second career win. Worked home well in consecutive provincial races at BM 64 and CL1 level before failing to run home here in a strong BM 64 field two weeks back. Didn't get the breaks that day after being backed from $5.00 into $3.70, and while this is a shade tougher, he gets a significant weight drop

Dangers: 3. So Sleek twice hit the line from well back up to BM 72+ metro company before failing to finish off here a fortnight ago when ridden way too close. 1. Cheval Savant comes back in grade over more ground third-up. From the inside draw, 5. Seething Seb will be hard to hold out after finishing less than two lengths from Flying Bandit who then won convincingly again at Randwick on Tuesday; while country-based 2. Knights Armour will find this much easier third-up.

How to play it: Whatadilemma to win

Race 5 4YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1100m):

Capable four-year-old 7. Royalify resumes with the blinkers coming off in an ideal and moderate race behind two forward and spaced trials at this track, the latest tracking the speed and sitting wide, but strong through the line. Hasn't lived up to his potential yet, tailing off against deeper opposition last prep, but he can come to hand quickly from a low draw.

Dangers: 6. Monte Braveheart ran home hard late first-up at Kembla as a well fancied favorite, and kept ticking over via that same recent trial as the top selection. Keep safe 1. Kazotsky coming back sharply in distance fourth-up off a four week freshening; while 4. Montigo Bay resumes having come through a steady effort in that same trial here.

How to play it: Royalify to win

Race 6 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1500m):

Lightly raced three-year-old 3. Strong Trade can make it two straight this prep, stepping up from a fast finishing Super Maiden win at Warwick Farm where he finished in front of Superhero who is a serious chance in an earlier race. Normally holds form, and the extra furlong is right up his alley, with the Big Dance-winning jockey keeping the ride.

Dangers: Home track mare 5. Leandra is banging on the door for a third career win having missed narrowly in a deeper Midway BM 68 here three weeks ago. Big watch on 1. La Vesuvius who resumes off two progressive country trials up to 1100m. Big weight off-set by a 3kg claimer, and he has a tidy fresh record. Include both 3. Verbek and 4. Star Legacy in exotic plays.

How to play it: Strong Trade to win

Race 7 LADIES DAY CUP (1500m):

An open feature race run at Listed level presents nicely for 10. Raf Attack who's the best weighted runner in the race down on the 54kg limit. Was close-up in the placings in consecutive metro BM 88 races before a very weak performance as a hot favorite in the Port Macquarie Cup. Prepared to forgive coming back sharply to the preferred shorter trip, and he's drawn to get a lovely run on speed.

Dangers: 6. Felix Majestic stuck on bravely from the front in Group 3 company third-up, and since won a city trial in heavy going. Tough and honest 2. Bandersnatch has been holding his own in much deeper Group and carnival races, although covering three states in seven weeks, including the latest run for a new provincial stable. Draws to get a handy trail off speed, but hasn't won since March last year. Over the odds is 3. Berkshire Shadow down in weight from the inside draw. Both 5. Robusto second-up and 9. City Of Lights freshened via an easy trial can add value into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Raf Attack to win

Race 8 MIDWAY BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m):

Not much separates the leading contenders in the closer, but talented mare 2. Monte Supreme emerges clear on top at the value over a bit further. Roared home to be beaten under three lengths in a deeper metro Midway BM 72 only 12 days ago, and importantly draws to settle a bit closer this time.

Dangers: Progressive 3. One Last Shot has been given four weeks since a comfortable maiden win here, and draws to get a similar close trail. Keep very safe too 1. Bindi's Choice fourth-up from a sound trailing draw; while 10. Flying Embers comes off an eye-catching and fast-finishing maiden win at Newcastle, but under the odds in this line-up. Debut winner at Canberra, 11. Miss Spacegirl heads the rest.

How to play it: Monte Supreme to win

BEST BETS:
R2 7. SUPERHERO
R8 2. MONTE SUPREME

BEST VALUE:
R5 7. ROYALIFY

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting

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