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Neil Evans' Tips For Hawkesbury (Thursday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail out 2m from 1100m to WP & True the remainder:

Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1800m):

Tricky middle distance opener, but local mare 3. Suay Mam'selle returns home very fit over more ground, and is banging on the door. Missed out narrowly driving home late in a handy maiden here three starts back before a similar effort next start, then again close-up back in country Super Maiden company. Ready for the longer trp now, and advantaged at the weights after the jockey's 3kg allowance.

Dangers: 4. Bluebird Bay, a provincial-based colt by The Autumn Sun, naturally has plenty to offer stepping up sharply in distance behind a solid debut at Scone. Must keep safe 7. Geronimo third-up over a bit further in a race with less depth; while both 6. Okami Star third-up coming through that same race as the former; and 10. Placid Pearl also over more ground with a significant jockey change at her third start; are both in the each way hunt.

How to play it: Suay Mam'selle to win

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):

Plenty of chances here, including long-priced filly 12. Let's Fly who presents well over the odds progressing into her second start. Worked home late at Newcastle on debut, buty can settle closer here from a softer draw, and finish hard over a shade further.

Dangers: 14. Twin Island, a filly by Per Incanto, is a threat on debut for the Chris Waller stable. Fitted with two progressive trials, and drawn to find a handy trail. Was scratched from the Kensington meeting on Wednesday to be saved for this. 3. One Last Shot resumes without the blinkers behind two metro trials, winning the latest in smart fashion. Another first starter over the odds early is 2. Space Ace, a four-year-old by Pierro for the Waterhouse-Bott stable, starting from a low draw off two steady and improving trials. 1. Maracaibo Sun deep into his prep; and lightly raced 13. Micro Magic, who resumes off two improving trials with blinkers going on; can both add plenty of value into trifecta and first four plays.

How to play it: Let's Fly each way

Race 3 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN PLATE (1100m):

In a wide race, with several debutants on show; one of them 10. Emery can hit the ground running for the Sara Ryan stable at Wyong. Northern Hemisphere-bred by Alamanzor, draws to get the right sort of run, and there was enough to like about two lead-up trials.

Dangers: Improving 2. Dressed in Gray steps up to a deeper race after hitting the line hard first-up in a Canberra maiden. At bigger odds, home track filly 12. Now You've Done it by Zoustar can run a race on debut behind two trials; while 4. Leantothemoon five weeks after a fair closing debut run here; 13. Shoutaboutit second-up; and lightly raced 17. Noble Ruby if she gains an unlikely start; all go into exotic plays.

How to play it: Emery to win

Race 4 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1800m):

Progressive 4. Hooligan Tommy almost has a mortgage on making it three straight after a dominant fourth-up win at Canberra from well off speed. Finds a weak race for this level, with one of the early market rivals being preferred at the Kensington meeting on Wednesday.

Dangers: 1. Fleet Commander is honest, and draws to get a nice trail fourth-up, but struggles to attack the line; while 5. Jurisprudence comes back in grade, and draws the fence. Gap to the rest.

How to play it: Hooligan Tommy to win

Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1600m):

Progressive 3. Lugarno is well placed and drawn to go back-to-back staying over the mile trip and 12 days between runs. Twice found the line well behind two more than handy winners at Kembla before rubber-stamping that form with a dominant win in heavy going over the same distance. Drawn to find another handy trail and couldn't be fitter in a race that lacks depth.

Dangers: Improving 2. Whatadilemma is screaming out for a second career win third-up after charging home to miss by under a length in a handy provincial BM 64. Has placed nine times in 16 starts. Must keep safe last start provincial maiden winner 1. Rolling Magic third-up from a low draw; while locally-trained 6. Lady Gold is the clear best of the rest drawn the fence.

How to play it: Lugarno to win

Race 6 SUPER MAIDEN HCP (1000m):

Testing maiden here, but one of several first starters, 9. Circle Of Love can make a bold statement on debut for the Annabel Neasham yard. Showed plenty of that customary tactical speed of her prolific sire Exceed And Excel in sailing clear to win the second of two metro trials, and starts with key gear additions.

Dangers: Lightly raced mare 6. Rainbow Goddess resumes for a second prep with a 2kg claim having won both trials. Alsdo first-up and trained on the track, 13. Tequila Baby has trialled well and drawn to get a soft run behind the speed. Watch the betting closely on Godolphin filly 8. Anticipation who debuts behind two improving trials. Included in all trifecta and first four plays Sunshine Coast-based 2. Benzou on debut, 5. Power Smash who drew inside and went close on debut in a weaker country race; and 11. Idolised who plugged away fairly on debut at Kembla after being heavily backed.

How to play it: Circle Of Love to win

Race 7 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1100m):

Improving provincial mare 5. River Pat is well placed to strike second-up. Liked the way she finished off when resuming in a similar race at Newcastle, and with blinkers being added, she drew to get the right trail and finish over the top.

Dangers: Watch the betting on capable 1. Mad Darcey, resuming from the inside draw behind two forward trials. 4. Lyrical Beauty was very disappointing last prep, twice being beaten in weaker races as a short-priced favourite, but normally comes to hand early in the prep; while 2. Jet Empress fourth-up; and 8. Useapin third-up head the rest.

How to play it: River Pat to win

Race 8 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1100m):

Deeper boys' edition to close out the meeting. Godolphin three-year-old 4. Mellifluent returns as a gelding for just his third start from a handy cover draw. Won on debut as a hot favorite at Canterbury back in February, and fitted with two steady trials.

Dangers: Consistent 10. Mogul Monarch has missed narrowly in his last two at Kembla from just off the speed, and comes back 100m in distance with blinkers added. 12. Here Comes Hogan has been in the money all prep, and while this is tougher, still looms over the odds from a low on-speed draw. Expect a big first-up run from 3. Hydrometer at good odds; while 1. Kiribati heads the rest coming back in grade.

How to play it: Mellifluent to win

BEST BETS:
R5 3. LUGARNO
R8 4. MELLIFLUENT

BEST VALUE:
R7 5. RIVER PAT

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting

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