By Neil Evans
Track Good 4 and rail true:
Race 1 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1000m): |
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The opening sprint for the three-year-olds sees most on debut, but Godolphin filly 3. Homecoming with a solid debut run under her belt and first use of the inside, emerges as the one to beat. Worked home okay as a rock solid favourite at Newcastle, and positions up again right behind the speed over 100m further.
Dangers: 2. Agenda Setter was outclassed in carnival two-year-old company last season, but looks destined for a much bigger prep here returning as a gelding with the blinkers off behind a smart trial win. Track the betting on 5. Chilli Sunday, a Zoustar filly on debut after trialling behind a very impressive debut winner at Rosehill last Saturday. Another first starter 8. Zing To Me, a filly by 2016 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist, won the second of two trials; while Hellbent filly 4. Ahellbenda is the best of the rest on debut behind two improving trials.
How to play it: Homecoming to win
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1500m): |
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Plenty of value chances in this headed by provincial four-year-old 5. Chentileeno who looks well placed on the map to strike third-up. Did his best work late resuming at Kembla before again running home from behind the speed in a handy country maiden. Yearning for more ground now, gets a senior metropolitan jockey on board, and carries 1kg less.
Dangers: Trained on the track and hard fit fifth-up, 12. Torie's Rose is also right in the hunt over further from a low draw after hitting the line late in her last couple. Despite drawing wide, another local 3. Noises can improve sharply second-up over more ground; while 7. Literature Tycoon is also an improver at her second start. Gap to the rest headed by 2. Equilibrist third-up with weight relief.
How to play it: Chentileeno to win
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1300m): |
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An open maiden awaits with the early favorite preferred at Wednesday's Warwick Farm meeting. That opens the way for progressive four-year-old 7. Spanish Fox to open his account second-up, significantly with blinkers back on. Tough on-speed type who beat all but the winner in three straight runs up to provincial Super Maiden level earlier in the year when always solid in the market. Chased hard at Wyong resuming off two trials, and that form reads well for this staying at the distance.
Dangers: Big watch on 11. Rasp, resuming for a second prep behind two quieter trials, and was scratched from Warwick Farm on Wednesday to be saved for this. At bigger odds, keep safe 4. Listentozou who can improve sharply second-up getting on to a bigger track. Both 1. Beauty Edge who draws very wide, but hasn't missed a place in three runs so far; and 3. Le Chocolat second-up over further; can run into the minor money.
How to play it: Spanish Fox to win
Race 4 SUPER MAIDEN PLATE (1100m): |
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Well-bred and emerging filly 14. Wave Breaker resumes off a smart trial win for her third start. Tackled Group 2 company back in early March, has been given time to mature, and the task made easier by one of her early market rivals being preferred at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.
Dangers: 12. Mother Goose is a big market watch for Godolphin on debut after a steady trial. Gap to the rest headed by 7. Tautou, resuming behind two progressive trials with the blinkers coming off.
How to play it: Wave Breaker to win
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1100m): |
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Progressive provincial filly 10. Sneaky Sofia can make it two straight this prep stepping up a furlong in trip. Was strong through the line first-up at Newcastle when easily beating Homecoming who is the on top selection in the opening race. Drawn to stay off the fence, and a stronger jockey has been booked.
Dangers: Lightly raced mare 5. Explosive Torpido improved to win a Midway provincial maiden second-up, and the extra furlong is a plus. The market will tell a story with resuming home track colt 2. Alabama State who won his maiden here before spelling, and has been fitted with two trials. Expecting a big first-up run at good odds from lightly raced 7. Picksix behind two trials; while 8. Sunrise, an ex-Kiwi filly having her first run in NSW, can also figure in the money.
How to play it: Sneaky Sofia to win
Race 6 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1800m): |
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Typical wide and tough battle at this level over a testing distance. Well over the odds is tough six-year-old 1. Fleet Commander coming back in grade second-up from a softer draw, and suitably over a longer trip. Was preferred here to Wednesday's Warwick Farm meeting.
Dangers: Must include 7. Naval Seal who draws to sit closer in the run second-up after hitting the line fresh at Newcastle; while 6. Highborn Harry is another second-up improver over significantly more ground, and dropping back from superior city company. 2. Doraskaya, off a narrow second-up win at the provincials, is clear best of the rest.
How to play it: Fleet Commander to win
Race 7 ROWLEY MILE (1600m): |
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Now for the Listed feature, and can't go past tough five-year-old 5. Williamsburg who can make it two straight wins this prep. Was in and around the money up to Saturday Listed level last prep before returning with a gallant front-running Open Hcp win at Rosehill 19 days ago. Normally holds form, and he looks well treated carrying only half kilo more.
Dangers: 1. Cepheus is much better placed here fifth-up with weight relief, coming back from that same open handicap won by the top selection. Keep safe 3. Lion's Roar who made late ground behind the top selection when resuming, and carries 2kg less here. 6. Robusto can be hard to catch, but swept home to win a BM 88 first-up before failing behind the top selection; and a senior jockey goes on. Include both 8. Junipal who also comes through that same formline; and 11. Raf Attack second-up; in wider exotic bets.
How to play it: Williamsburg to win
Race 8 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1300m): |
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Lightly raced local mare 9. Audrey's Lane can resume with a bang, and claim her third win from four starts. Won two straight from on speed to launch her career earlier in the year, and tuned up for this return with two progressive trials. Drawn to get cover right behind the speed, and will carry only 1kg over the limit after the jockeys claim.
Dangers: Progressive Godolphin mare 12. Rip Off is a serious threat second-up from a soft draw after finishing hard to claim her maiden fresh at Wyong. 7. Magnucat has to tuck in from a tough draw, but he's tracking to peak third-up back from deeper metro company. Watch the betting on 1. True To Form reloading five weeks after a narrow first-up CL1 provincial win; while lightly raced 11. Fortingall improving at his third start can run into the minor money.
How to play it: Audrey's Lane to win
BEST BETS:
R3 7. SPANISH FOX
R7 5. WILLIAMSBURG
BEST VALUE:
R6 1. FLEET COMMANDER
All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting