By Neil Evans
Track likely Soft 5 and rail True
Race 1 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1550m): |
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A middle distance battle for the maidens to start, with the Chris Waller stable serving up nearly half the field. One of them, progressive gelding 2. Aton Of Delight made a strong return at the Farm on Australia Day hitting the line from well back behind a smart one, and any amount of rain won't harm his chances.
Dangers: Expect further improvement fourth-up from 10. Edgewise who stuck on okay in that same race as the top selection; while 7. Spitfire is best of the rest fourth-up.
How to play it: Aton Of Delight to win. Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 2 3YO BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1200m): |
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Still with the three-year-olds, and there's a couple here headed for bigger targets. Promising filly 4. California Surreal sat back off the speed resuming, but put them to the sword in a heartbeat with an impressive burst of acceleration. That was her first run in four months, and while this is a testing jump in grade, no reason she can't go back-to-back in similar fashion.
Dangers: From the inside draw and dropping back from a strong finishing effort in metro BM 72 grade, smart 2. Spellcatcher is the immediate threat second-up. Just needs to get clear in time. Gap to the rest headed by first-up provincial maiden winner 10. Ringarosa who was heavily backed that day on a heavy surface; while another fresh maiden winner 8. Chief Conductor can run into a place from a good draw.
How to play it: California Surreal to win and quinella 2 and 4. Odds and Evens: Evens a special
Race 3 3YO & UP BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1900m): |
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Not much between a few of these over this distance. Progressive four-year-old 6. Rock The Bells is headed for better races. Surged home from off the speed to win a weaker CL1 at Bathurst as a hot favourite, and the second horse from that race has since won easily. Naturally, taking on some better ones here, but he gets a 4kg weight drop coming back to town, and his prior provincial form was very solid for a race like this. Only missed a place three times in 13 starts.
Dangers: Provincial seven-year-old 4. White Boots broke a long run of outs finishing hard third-up, and still well placed after the claim. Handles all ground. Tough 3. Jungle Book is overdue for a win and will need good speed on, but can peak here after hitting the line late in his last three. Watch the betting on Victorian five-year-old 1. Nordic Prince who didn't fire a shot third-up, but has been tackling deeper Saturday fields.
How to play it: Rock The Bells to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 4YO & UP MARES BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1250m): |
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Another very evenly graded battle for the older girls, and early tempo will be crucial. Lightly raced provincial four-year-old 8. Syzygy Stars returns off a lengthy break for her second prep. Won two from three last time, and while this is a tougher test, she's unbeaten on soft ground, and has had two forward trials up to 1000m for a stable who loves to get them ready.
Dangers: Two sound trials suggest talented four-year-old 1. Ita is ready frist-up. Strung three wins together up to this grade last prep, but the handicapper hasn't missed her with 61kg. Improving 3. Sweet Angeline did her best work late over this trip fresh, and she's already a second-up winner. Provincial mare 4. Ciccina draws well, and resumes behind two quiet trials after winning four from five last prep in two states; while no doubting 6. Russbuss has the ability at this level, and is hard fit, but draws wide and her starting price profile is not great.
How to play it: Syzygy Stars each way and box trifecta 1,8/1,3,4,6,8/1,3,4,6,8. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 5YO & UP BENCHMARK 78 HCP (1250m): |
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Another typical wide and even race for this level. Tough eight-year-old 9. Accelerato chased home the topweight third-up carrying 2.5kg more despite drifting in betting, and from a soft draw can produce a superior final 300m. Over the odds.
Dangers: Lightly raced six-year-old 1. Bergan has built a better than 25 percent winning strike rate from only 23 starts. Was dominant first-up from the front carrying a hefty 61kg, but it was a hot leader bias that night in slightly weaker grade, although he normally carries that form into the next run. Include last-start winner 6. Bugalugs third-up; and 11. Sessions Road fourth-up in exotics for a race where trifectas and first fours could be easier to find than the winner.
How to play it: Accelerato each way. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 6 3YO & UP BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1100m): |
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Very keen on progressive mare 3. Star Cherie who led all the way second-up at Warwick Farm, and boasts a 50 percent win rate from only eight starts. Draws to get a good run on-speed, and has the superior turn of foot over this trip.
Dangers: Talented mare 1. Salina Dreaming didn't get much luck when it counted first-up in Saturday grade, and the winner of that race has since exploded home to score again. Her second-up form is sound and she likes it soft, but as is the case for many provincial gallopers racing in metro company, poorly off at the weights; while 2. Sixgun was only a length behind the top selection second-up.
How to play it: Star Cherie to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 7 3YO & UP BENCHMARK 72 HCP (1550m): |
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On-speed six-year-old 1. Off Shaw hasn't been far away in two runs back, and top jockey takes over, but there's little or no margin for error over further under 62.5kg.
Dangers: Lightly raced three-year-old 7. Zoumon resumes behind two improving trials; while 3. Zell and 8. Glamour Fox can run into a place.
How to play it: Off Shaw to win. Odds and Evens: Odds
BEST BETS:
R2 4. CALIFORNIA SURREAL
R6 3. STAR CHERIE
BEST VALUE:
R5 9. ACCELERATO
All the fields, form and replays for Friday night's Canterbury meeting