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By Ray Hickson

An in depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 3 $250,000 ACY Securities Ming Dynasty Quality (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. It's an interesting bunch of three-year-olds, some of which who could progress to the top level later in the spring.

1. Tannhauser (Chris Waller): Took a little while to find himself as a two-year-old and responded when the blinkers went on. It saw him start favourite in the Group 1 JJ Atkins in June where he charged home from well back into third. The win prior was at 1400m off a seven week break so he reacts okay fresh. No jockey booking (as at Thursday 11am) is a concern and he did trial nicely on Tuesday. If he’s here he’ll be competitive.

2. Townsend (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Possibly a forgotten three-year-old given he finished ahead of Tannhauser when placed in the Fernhill and notched a Group 1 placing in the Champagne Stakes behind Militarize. Would have liked to see a bit more from him in his trials but the blinkers go on for the first time on race day and the 1400m fresh suits with his on pace pattern. Wouldn’t be a shock if he features.

3. Tom Kitten (James Cummings): Was expected to find the 1300m a bit sharp for him in the Up & Coming but it wasn’t and he carried the penalty to a strong win. Meets them better at the weights this time around for winning that race so he’s well treated. The barrier could be a plus or a minus for him and that’s something we’ll have to keep an eye on through the first half of the day but certainly giving him a lot more respect here. Feel he’s perhaps a little short in the market though.

4. Infatuation (Bjorn Baker): Showed something of a return to form with an improved third at Warwick Farm in a Benchmark 64 third-up but you’d have to say on its merits that’s not good enough to win this. She may have had excuses in the Rosebud prior to that but can’t entertain her as a winning chance.

Encap (Pic: Grant Guy)

5. Encap (Gary Portelli): Remains a maiden after four starts but he’s had the flashing light on in all his runs this time around. Arguably should have won the Up & Coming but for a checkered passage in the straight. Has barrier one this time and if that’s something he can take some advantage of, and get into the clear at the right time, then he looks to have what it takes to turn the tables even with a 2.5kg swing against him. Hard to beat.

6. Ceolwulf (Joseph Pride): Straight from a midweek maiden into a Group 3 but this colt looks to have something about him. Whether he takes the leap straight away remains to be seen, and he’s entitled to be double figure odds, but he could well do it. Worked to the line well on debut then in his win he was particularly strong at the end of the 1400m. Down 4kg will help and he’s one to keep an eye on and include in the exotics at least.

7. Griff (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Mini-D Day for him after two runs back that have been pass marks. Received 6kg off Tom Kitten and seemed to find the spot outside the leader without too much trouble. Momentarily hit the front but was swamped as soon as he did to be beaten under two lengths. Imagine he may have to go forward again, regardless he finds himself in a tricky spot. Talented but will need all the breaks.

8. Extreme Spirit (Gary Portelli): Not seen for over a month since an even effort from the back at Flemington over 1410m as a $13 chance. Looked good in his debut win but prefer his chances in the Midway at the start of the program.

9. Vomo Island (Peter & Paul Snowden): Maiden after four starts but the form around him is pretty solid with placings behind Inhibitions, Tannhauser and Kandinsky Abstract as favourite each time. Headed the market again first-up at Newcastle and while beaten he did hit the line okay late. Fitter for it and well drawn, needs a breakthrough but can’t leave him out just yet at the juicy odds.

10. Steel Blaze (Brett Lazzarini): Improving type who did a good job to weave through and score a maiden win at Kembla Grange over this trip a couple of weeks back. Drops in weight but did start $91 in a two-year-old race here in June won by Tutta La Vita and finished last. Prefer in something easier.

11. Zardozi (James Cummings): Have to mark her disappointing first-up in the Silver Shadow where she only beat one home as an $11 chance. Sure she didn’t have the greatest of runs and the trip was likely below where she’ll end up this spring but would have liked to see her hitting the line. Goes back from the wide gate and look for her to stoke up late.

12. Congregation (Chris Waller): Well bred and expensive colt who appears to be trialling quite well leading into this preparation. Earned a shot at the Group 1 JJ Atkins with wins at Canterbury and Rosehill at his first two starts and he wasn’t disgraced in that defeat in Brisbane. Down on 53kg and at 1400m first-up looks a good formula to give him his chance and if he has come on he could find himself in the finish.

13. Kintyre (Gary Portelli): Looked the winner of the Up & Coming only to be ambushed by Tom Kitten late and meets that horse worse at the weights for his trouble. The half-brother to Fireburn has gone up a notch this time in and while he barrier is very much against him if he does find some luck in running he won’t be too far away.

Kintyre (left) and Tom Kitten. (Pic: Steve Hart).

14. Café Millenium (John O’Shea): Warmed up a bit late when resuming in the Up & Coming but didn’t exactly scream back me next time. Add to that another draw that will likely see him go back and rely on being able to swoop home. Looked smart on debut but has so far not replicated anything like that performance, perhaps he’s a stayer in the making but until he turns it around happy to watch him again.

15. Ducasse (Michael Freedman): Also an acceptor for Kembla Grange on Saturday. Hasn’t been afforded a whole lot of luck in his three starts to date and that was the case in the Up & Coming where he had a checkered passage in the last 200m before running a closing fourth. His problem is the outside barrier but if he’s here and he has any luck he could be a knockout.

16. Cap Ferrat (Chris Waller): Yet to win in five starts though did place at stakes level second-up last time around in Brisbane. At this point he hasn’t done enough to entertain at Group 3 level. Drawn to have every chance and might be worth keeping an eye on what he does as he could be a horse looking for a bit more ground.

17. Raf Attack (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Gave nothing else a chance in an all the way maiden win at Kensington last month and comes here off a freshen and a close second to Tropical Squall, a winner midweek, in a trial. Probably rolls forward onto the pace and it’s a matter of whether he measures up.

18. Ashfall (Chris Waller): Looks a promising type who should excel over a little further and has been accepted for easier races and scratched so it’s interesting he turns up here. Has the soft draw and a jockey who knows him and if he is a Spring Champion sort he could run a cheeky race fresh, and it seems that’s expected with his place in the market.

19E. Missile Defence (Anthony Cummings): Dispensed with his maiden at Newcastle a few weeks ago and it was a deserved win after a solid debut in a small but handy field then a close up effort in another handy two-year-old group at the end of last season. Whether he’s up to this remains to be seen but he seems to be the type that always puts in.

SELECTIONS:
5 ENCAP
6 Ceolwulf
3 Tom Kitten
12 Congregation

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting