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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1.5 million Kia Tancred Stakes (2400m) at Rosehill on Tuesday.

1. Dubai Honour (William Haggas): Hard to believe it’s been two years since he arrived and romped away with a Ranvet Stakes on a good track and a Queen Elizabeth Stakes on a soft 7. In those two years he’s continued to perform at the highest level internationally and at 2400m, the distance of his most recent win in France last June on soft ground. Enormous in the Hong Kong Vase to run second in December. Ground doesn’t seem to bother him, reports are that he’s settled in as well as ever and he’s earned the right to be considered the benchmark.

Dubai Honour (Pic: Steve Hart)

2. Vauban (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Didn’t really appreciate the warm conditions on the day but it didn’t affect his performance as he showed a glimpse of what he can do with a last stride win in the Sky High at 2000m, running very quick sectionals to score. Different set up this time, with likely cooler conditions which he’ll probably relish and the 2400m. That can only be a plus too. It’s been a while since he’s struck a soft track, and largely when he has they’ve been in hurdle races, but there’s nothing to say he won’t be fine. See this as a harder race but commands respect.

3. Arapaho (Bjorn Baker): Won this race two years ago and is tracking toward a peak performance after three runs back since his Sandown Classic win in November on a heavy track. Just got the better of Lindermann when he was grabbed by Vauban in the Sky High two weeks ago but the prospect of a wet track gives him a big chance to turn the tables. He’s one from 16 on good but eight from 26 on soft and heavy. Interestingly his past two wins have been fourth-up at 2400m so he can’t be discounted.

4. Duke De Sessa (Ciaron Maher): Very interesting addition to this race, his last 2400m attempt was an easy win in the Caulfield Cup on a soft 6 in October. Both runs back have been excellent and you could make a case that he was unlucky not to win the Australian Cup Prelude three weeks ago, getting clear when the winner had already built up the revs. No problems with the sting out of the track and has a racing pattern that will see him make some use of the gate. Peaks here and should be hard to beat.

5. Zarir (Chris Waller): Yulong purchase first-up for Chris Waller and his form can be tied in to Dubai Honour through their meeting at St Cloud in June where he started favourite and was beaten four lengths by his rival who won the Group 1 race comfortably. Only run since he was second to Iresene, who also beat him home at St Cloud, in a 2400m Group 2 at Longchamps. Seems a horse that takes a while to wind up, handles soft ground in Europe but is a yard and market watch.

6. Circle Of Fire (Ciaron Maher): Last year’s Sydney Cup winner fitter for two runs back from a spell and while he was outsprinted in the Sky High last time his work in the last 100m was solid as he pulled back a bit of ground on the first three. At this stage it would say he’s on target for the Cup again. Has to be a plus going to 2400m and some give in the track probably helps. Perhaps he’ll be better under the handicap conditions next time but could run a race.

7. Land Legend (Chris Waller): This is shaping as a big race for him as he’s not done anything of great significance in two runs back this autumn following an excellent spring. Beaten 11 lengths in the Sky High so there’s some work to be done to improve on that but getting to 2400m on slower ground is a good platform for him to improve. Couldn’t see him winning this at weight-for-age but worth keeping an eye on how he performs.

8. Asterix (Chris Waller): He’s been solid in three runs since arriving from New Zealand but they have been in much lesser company and certainly not at weight-for-age. Jumped from an even fifth in the Randwick City Stakes to a Group 1 and has to carry 1kg more. No doubt he’s effective at the trip and perhaps a heavy track would give him a fluker’s hope but on face value watch for a Sydney Cup pointer from him.

9. Zecharaiah (Chris Waller): Improved effort at his second run back and was a little unlucky in a close finish behind Alalcance who has confirmed the form from the race. But, again, that was handicap conditions and we’re talking Group 1 weight-for-age. Yet to win in Australia and we’re some 959 days since his last win when they jump.

10. Waltham (Matthew Smith): Another handicapper who was placed in the St Leger in the spring and showed he’d come back well with a second-up win but that was at the Gold Coast in a Benchmark 85. Massive class hike for him and he’s another who will be using this race to get him to something longer under handicap conditions.

11. Warmonger (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Ran his best race for the season when second to Alalcance at Randwick three weeks ago suggesting he’s on target for a Sydney Cup. What could bring him into this race is if we’re on a testing track. He did win the Queensland Derby by some 10 lengths on a soft 6 last year and he ran well in the Makybe Diva and the Caulfield Cup on forgiving tracks in the spring. Definitely worth considering if he strikes suitable ground.

Warmonger (Pic: Trackside)

12. Kinesiology (Chris Waller): First two runs back were handy including a nice third in the Parramatta Cup but was no match behind Vauban in the Sky High. Some theory the track may have been too firm but it’s hard to be definitive as 10 of his 11 starts have been on good tracks. Regardless, he should be outclassed at this level. But he could run well and be a lightweight chance if he can get into the Sydney Cup with 50kg.

13. La Crique (Simon & Katrina Alexander): Classy Kiwi mare who hasn’t missed a top two finish at home for over 13 months. Has four Group 1 seconds on end since her win back in November. She’s only been to 2400m once and that was as a three-year-old running second to Asterix in the NZ Derby of 2022. Safe to say she handles all ground, never runs a bad race and it’s a matter of if she can measure up here.

14. River Of Stars (Chris Waller): Imported mare purchased by Yulong and first-up since October where she ran second in a 2800m Group 1 in France. She started $18 and jumped from the outside barrier there, working home through the middle to grab the silver. Only had the two starts in her career below 2400m so is an experienced stayer. Does she have the speed for 2400m in Australia? Or could a wet track offset that query? She does have James McDonald. Market early could be misleading given the hoop but late will likely be more significant. Wary.

SPEED MAP: There is no established leader in this race which is a little concern. Duke De Sessa did lead in the Turnbull and was on speed in the Caulfield Cup so he's most likely to be prominent. Where James McDonald wants to go with River Of Stars from a wide gate may become clearer on race morning as she did settle back at her last start from an outside alley. Imagine Arapaho isn't far away and Dubai Honour has the gate to be in a stalking position.

SELECTIONS:
1 DUBAI HONOUR
4 Duke De Sessa
3 Arapaho
2 Vauban

All the fields, form and replays for Stakes day at Rosehill