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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Kembla Grange.

The rail is out 4m from the 1100m to the winning post and 2m the remainder. The form has been done for a soft/heavy track.

9. The Storm In Me gets in well at the weights as a three-year-old filly. She has plenty of upside too. Having shown ability as a two-year-old she knocked off her maiden on a heavy track first up this preparation before two starts later winning again, this time emphatically at Muswellbrook having parked outside of the leader. The race was moderately run in the early stages, with the leader holding on for second at $21, so she was entitled to quicken but she put her rivals away to win by 2.5 lengths with her ears pricked. Being a daughter of Press Statement, the step out to 1400m looks to suit now fourth up and with Tim Clark engaged, expect her to settle down in the first four again. Stick with her.

Dangers: 12. Kelvedon Road is the most lightly-raced horse in the field with just four starts to his name. He got his dues last start at Albury when $1.30 favourite so he was expected to win but it won’t be the last time for this three-year-old. Will just need the race run to suit with his barrier dictating that he’ll be out the back. Former Kiwi 3. Foodie King won first up for Michael Mulholland over 1300m before running over 1000m and 1100m. His runs were good too, if not a little hidden. Imagine this has been a target race. 4. Hurn Court has hit a purple patch of form and sprinted quickly to win on the same day as The Storm In Me at Muswellbrook. 5. Danzadel maps well and handles the wet.

How to play it: The Storm In Me WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

The Storm In Me winning last start

6. Royalzel is the highest-rated runner here and he wouldn’t have been out of place against his own age in the G3 Ming Dynasty. The three-year-old has spent eight weeks on the sidelines since we saw him trounce his rivals at Flemington over the mile in a Listed race. Very few horses from that race have run since so there is little guide there and he was perhaps flattered by the three length winning margin but that’s now three wins from five starts with two of them coming on heavy tracks. Two back at Rosehill, when pairing with James McDonald, who jumps back on here, he swept past his rivals over 1500m. The low draw should see McDonald position up much closer and he trialled well at Warwick Farm when you consider Eduardo and Gytrash were in the same heat.

Dangers: 5. Bowery Breeze handles good tracks but she’s better again on wet ground. This is a perfect race for her. There is a query over 2. Exceltic on a heavy track but there’s no doubting how well he has returned this preparation. Knocked of Irish Angel first up before running fourth in a leader dominated Midway, where Bowery Breeze ran second. His 32.91s last 600m split was only bettered by King Of Sparta across the entire meeting. All five of 4. Lord Zoulander’s wins have come on soft and heavy tracks.

How to play it: Royalzel WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Royalzel and McDonald combining two starts ago

The majority of these mares come through some pretty moderate affairs. Enter 1. Celestial Falls bringing different, and superior, form lines. The five-year-old hasn’t been sighted at the races since June last year so she’s spent a lengthy stint on the sidelines but she has three black type placings to her name from her nine starts. Kicking off her spring over 1500m, the blinkers on, with three trials under her belt, the latest of them over 1200m, suggests that Mark Newnham has her as forward as he can get her ahead of her return. In her two previous first up runs she has been touched off by Subpoenaed and Soldier Of Love, who was flying at the time. Imagine she rolls forward for Tom Sherry from the draw. Don’t think she has to be at her top to get away with this BM78.

Dangers: Is 5. Steel Diamond better on top of the ground? Last start suggests so but she had previously been pegged as a wet tracker. She bounced back to form last start in a race that the early market is putting a lot of faith in with 11. Rock My Wand and 12. Pensato also priced as single figure chances. 4. Hastobegood could be the improver from that race but she can’t draw a barrier. 2. Signora Nera’s form around the likes of Duais, Hungry Heart and Grace And Harmony reads well for this. Would be surprised if she doesn’t sprint well fresh over 1500m in this company. 10. Centimental continues to race well.

How to play it: Celestial Falls WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Celestial Falls first up last preparation

More was expected from 3. La Chevalee last start when sent out a $2.90 favourite but she failed to let down on the firmer track having raced so well prior to that on wet tracks through the winter. The five-year-old mare gets back onto a rain affected surface and although there is more depth to this BM78, her win over 1800m two starts ago stacks right up in this. Like her drawn wide out in trip too as it’ll afford plenty of time to roll across into a prominent position giving her room to click through her gears. She boasts a 5:3-1-0 record on heavy tracks and the miss was a fast finishing fourth having given away an impossible start over 1500m from a wide draw. Doubt the 2000m will pull her up either. Nicely placed back onto her preferred surface.

Dangers: 2. Mankayan had the flashing light on his head first up coming from last over 1600m at Flemington. That was despite a moderate tempo up front. He looks an import with more ability than BM78 level but he’s going to be giving away a big start to his rivals from the widest draw. 13. Onemore Sapphire produced a big finish to run third behind Crystal Pegasus last start, with a last 600m two lengths quicker than the next best. He continues to race well and handles wet tracks. 1. Great House found the line dropping back to 1500m last start off a freshen. Just has to overcome another awkward draw. 11. Our Intrigue loomed like the winner the last time we saw her at the races before stopping badly. It was too bad to be true and James McDonald sticks.

How to play it: La Chevalee WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

La Chevalee winning two starts ago

6. Military Expert looks to own this race from in front. Annabel Neasham elected to send the colt to Newcastle last start to chalk off the maiden win and despite the 0.8L margin, he was never losing. He was left in front a long way from home. Prior to that he ran fourth behind Silent Impact, going to the line with 2. Coastwatch. Admittedly, Coastwatch was first up and covered ground but Military Expert jumped $3.20 vs $9.50. One start on, that has flipped. On what Military Expert has done in his three starts, where his strength through the line has been evident, he gives the impression he’ll relish the step out to 1400m. Drops to 53.5kg and handled the soft 7 surface on debut when second to King Of Sparta.

Dangers: While Military Expert was scoring his maiden win, Coastwatch was touched off by Tiger Of Malay in the G3 Up And Coming, albeit getting 8kg off the winner. He looks set to peak now third up out to 1400m and James McDonald jumps back on. 1. Subterranean was chopped out late in that same feature race and probably finishes right alongside Coastwatch with clear air. 3. Arnaqueur has strong two-year-old form lines and resumed a winner four weeks ago. Big watch on 9. Yulong Turbo having his first start for the Waller stable. Flight Stakes hopeful 7. Chill maps to get on speed favours too.

How to play it: Military Expert WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Military Expert chalking off his maiden win

Very tricky race to predict with any great conviction but 8. In The Congo is the one that the market looks to have underestimated. He is worse off at the weights from the Rosebud but he was just as inconvenienced in the run as Remarque. Like the way he picked himself up to hit the line the last 200m behind runaway winner 4. Paulele despite never being able to build his momentum. From his two previous runs he didn’t look a sit-sprint style of horse either. Expect more aggressive tactics this time from Tim Clark with intent to find the front. In the Rosebud, In The Congo SP’d $4.20. The Snitzel colt has some wet track exposure having run second to Verne at Randwick on a Soft 7.

Dangers: Where does 1. Stay Inside fit in? It’s tricky enough lining up the Rosebud form let alone throwing the Golden Slipper winner into the mix and as the short-priced favourite. The wet isn’t a concern and he has trialled up nicely. He also improved every time we saw him at two. Am I excited to see him back? You betcha! Could I take $2.30? No. Paulele set the early three-year-old benchmark in the Rosebud as he lumped 59kg and he won the Kindergarten on a soft track. He was flattered by the margin first up but still suspect he wins. No knock. 9. Maotai is the other forgotten horse.

How to play it: In The Congo WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Replay of the Rosebud

Bjorn Baker’s stayer 12. Harpo Marx comes back from two 2400m races but the wet track nullifies that query somewhat. The six-year-old presents here as a very fit horse and is right down in the weights. Three weeks ago a perfectly timed James McDonald ride got him home despite lumping 62.5kg on a firm track. Harpo Marx reunites with Rachel King given he plummets to 53kg, with King having ridden him 11 times in the past already, including three back on a wet track over 2000m. He showed an exceptional turn of foot to win from last on that occasion defying the pattern of the day at Randwick. Jumps from BM78 company into Group racing but the timing is right to have a crack and he gets an ideal set up. One of the many chances in an open race.

Dangers: There’s a bit of Jekyll and Hyde about 3. Quick Thinker but his wet track form speaks for itself. The ever-improving 13. Heart Of Puissance is on a Metropolitan path with the stable chasing wet tracks for him. 1. Spirit Ridge will roll forward to sit outside of 5. Inverloch to give a sight but might feel the pinch late. 14. Criminal Code continues to knock on the door, as does 9. Mubariz. Then there’s swimmer 10. No Compromise.

How to play it: Harpo Marx EACH WAY ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Harpo Marx winning last start

After the scratching of King of Sparta this race looks to have fallen into the lap of 7. Tycoonist. He was brave having covered ground last start when third behind Kingsheir, with the winner dashing home in particularly fast time. Reunites with James McDonald and should park on the shoulder of the leader 10. Peyton Place. Goes up in grade but down in weight. Has been up for a long time but continues to race well and only has to hold his form to fight out the finish again.

Dangers: 3. Madam Legend’s stop-start preparation doesn’t instil a huge degree of confidence, nor does the wide draw, but there’s no doubt she has the ability to win this. She produced a stunning turn of foot to win over 1100m first up before five weeks later reappearing over 1400m, where she loomed but understandably knocked up. After another four weeks off and she is back to 1200m. 4. Zakat and 5. Animate both ran well in the Big Parade race first up. 12. Promotions and 2. Triple Ace are in the mix too.

How to play it: Tycoonist WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

King Of Sparta smashing the track record

The only knock on 4. Majestic Shot is the barrier. However, a wide draw might be no disadvantage come the latter half of the Kembla meeting on a rain-affected track? Time will tell. Outside of where might she gets to in the run, this is a lovely set up for the four-year-old mare with five wins from seven starts to her name. Majestic Shot is four from four over 1000m, handles the wet and looked very sharp in a Muswellbrook trial recently. At the backend of last preparation she ran a fast-finishing second to Ballistic Lover, an impressive winner at Moonee Valley last Saturday, in a very fast race at Rosehill. That was before controlling a 1200m BM78, beating Expat, a winner of her two subsequent starts.

Dangers: David Payne has Group One aspirations for 14. Gleaneagles with the Run To The Rose his second up target. If that’s the case, he’d want to be giving this a nudge. Especially given that he should get a lovely run from the draw and carries just 52kg. 6. Andermatt resumes a gelding and is 2:1-1-0 on heavy tracks with the second behind Anders. Started last preparation which a bang before his form tapered off. 1. Perigord raced too keenly outside of Spaceboy last start. Has been freshened since and has won three from four on heavy tracks. Knockout hope.

How to play it: Majestic Shot WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Majestic Shot winning back in June last start

Track conditions look set to play a huge role in this race with 13. Yiyi the beneficiary of a rain-affected surface. The half-brother to Unforgotten has returned a far better horse this preparation backing up a dominant first up Newcastle win with an exceptional Rosehill victory. The three length romp was just as impressive on the clock as it was to the eye too. Of the four 1500m races across that Rosehill meeting, his was comfortably the quickest. Last start he ran second when back to midweek company as a $1.50 pop but that was on a good track. His two starts prior to that were on soft and heavy tracks. It’s becoming evident 11 starts into his career that he is a far superior wet tracker.

Dangers: On the other side of the coin is 8. Kingsheir . His first run as a gelding was a dominant victory, where although everything that could have gone right, did, he put his rivals to the sword. Punters Intelligence reveals a last 600m of 32.88s. That was on a very firm track. The import did not look at all comfortable in his one previous heavy track run, failing at $1.50 before bouncing straight back next start back on top of the ground. 17. Toomuchtobear beat Mr Brightside at Bendigo to break his maiden, with that horse winning three since, before Toomuchtobear gapped his rivals at Newcastle despite a six week break. This is harder again but he looks up to this grade.

How to play it: Yiyi WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"James McDonald, Chris Waller, perfect draw..."

📹BEST BET: It all comes down to the track conditions for @BradJGray's best bet at @kemblaraces on Saturday @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/DPNKhvtYH4

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 26, 2021

All the fields, form and replays for Kembla on Saturday