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By Ray Hickson

An in depth look at the chances of every runner in the $10 million James Squire Golden Eagle (1500m) run at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. The horse's charity partner is listed next to the trainer, 10 per cent of the prizemoney earned from this race goes to that charity partner.

1. Southport Tycoon (Ciaron Maher/Camp Quality): Two time Group 1 winner whose three runs at 1200m, even though one of them is his Manikato win, suggest he’s crying out to get back over a bit more ground. He was an Australian Guineas winner at the mile in March. That makes him a little hard to line up because while he was making ground in the Sydney Stakes he wasn’t dashing. Craig Williams has won the Everest and Kosciuszko this spring and we know he’s a big race rider so that’s a tick for the horse. The gate’s not too bad as there’s some speed drawn close to him, have to give him a good chance now he’s finally up in trip.

2. Veight (Tony & Calvin McEvoy/Fordham Foundation): Winner of the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes over this track and distance back in March beating a strong weight-for-age field. His two runs back have been a little mystifying, probably moreso the first-up run because he had no chance in the Silver Eagle after getting chopped out at the start. He still made some ground but that’s not his style to settle back. From the barrier they have no choice but to press forward and look to lead or get on top of the speed as he did in the Ryder. If he finds that form he’s in the mix.

3. Tom Kitten (James Cummings/Humpty Dumpty Foundation): Hard to fault him really in his four runs this spring since being gelded and the barrier draw might be in his favour. He’s drawn 11 of 12, 19 of 20 and 11 of 11 in his last three starts and been game in each, and you’d have to think Ceolwulf is a good form reference for this race. He’d likely be the favourite if he was here. Godolphin produced second and third in this race last year and Tom’s probably a notch above them form wise – Golden Mile ran third in an Epsom and ninth in the King Charles while Pericles came through the Silver Eagle. If he stays out of the early jostling and can land better than midfield he’d be a big chance.

Encap (Pic: Steve Hart)

4. Ostraka (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald/Royce Simmons Foundation): Four straight wins in varying racing styles stand him in good stead for a race that could require adaptability. Came from near last to win first-up and led all the way to win the Silver Eagle after drawing the outside gate and he looked to be holding them. No doubt he will need to take another step up but he’s done it so well to date there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be competitive.

5. Griff (Ciaron Maher/Redkite): It’d be easy to look at his form and dismiss him but on the evidence of his last start he might be on the way back to some form. Sure he beat four horses home but he was negatively ridden from a wide gate and was last on the fence on the turn. Under 60kg he went looking for runs that weren’t there and may have went to the line wondering if it was just a track gallop and not a race. Led all the way in his Caulfield Guineas win last year. He’s a big price but the draw favours his racing style and if it wasn’t the Golden Eagle you’d probably want to back him next start. One for trifectas.

6. Encap (Gary Portelli/Police Citizens Youth Club NSW): Just about as honest as they come and each run back has suggested he’s on target to peak in this race. Impressive winner of the Theo Marks second-up and he warmed to the task late to finish just behind the placings in the Alan Brown. He has a win over Tom Kitten and Ceolwulf from last spring and split Militarize and Cylinder in a Golden Rose. Barrier one suits this horse if he can stay out of any early trouble and his best form has been at Rosehill so he’s not to be overlooked.

7. Xidaki (Peter Snowden/Youngcare): Another under the radar type of horse who is building a good record though it’s also by far and away his biggest challenge. Big win in the Winx Guineas at the Sunshine Coast in the winter and earned his place here with a solid second in the Silver Eagle. Whether that’s the strongest formline remains to be seen, last year the race produced a minor placegetter, but he’s still on the way up this preparation therefore open to some improvement.

8. Chrysaor (Chris Waller/Australian Lions Childhood & Cancer Research Foundation): Hit and miss type who had his chance in the Epsom last start with 52kg and didn’t finish the race off. Big winner on a heavy track first-up but taking a line through the Epsom you’d have to say he’s making up the numbers in this race.

9. Kintyre (Gary Portelli/The Sony Foundation): Has an honest record and fair to say his first two runs back were solid enough. He was weak late in the Epsom and started favourite in an open handicap last weekend, just battling into fourth and unable to get past the leader. Perhaps he needs to be held up a bit more in the run. His best form ties in okay with the likes of Tom Kitten and his stablemate Encap, he’s drawn well but needs plenty of breaks and a big PB.

10. War Machine (Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson/Exodus Foundation (Rev. Bill Crews Foundation)): Promising type who managed to sneak into the field with his third in the Silver Eagle a couple of weeks ago. He raced handy and was holding his ground okay. Beaten by a smart one prior to that at 1200m. Another horse whose best is likely still ahead and whether this is coming up a bit too soon class wise is a strong possibility. Imagine he can only run well but probably just a place hope.

11. Port Lockroy (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald/Ronald McDonald House): Often has the bad end of the luck in his races as he did first-up when closing late behind Ostraka. Hit the line well behind that horse in the Silver Eagle and he’s definitely looking for the 1500m. His rating says this isn’t the right race but he is tracking toward a peak performance so if he runs well here he can be followed in something easier.

12. Lazzat (Jerome Reynier/Alzheimer’s Research Australia): Always beware the unbeaten horse! A strong looking on pacer, he’s put some decent margins on his opposition in France and the form seems to be stacking up (over there) around him. In his last start Group 1 win in August he sat just off the leader and powered away with a three length margin at the finish. Of the internationals he’s probably drawn the best to suit his style of racing which would be to roll forward, wouldn’t be shocked if he led, and sit up handy. It’d probably help him get around Rosehill too. Imagine if he hits the front it’ll take a good performance to run him down.

13. Craig (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young/Muscular Dystrophy Foundation NSW): Yet to finish out of the top three and has climbed the ladder quickly since arriving in Australia. Wasn’t quite as nimble as Antino in the Toorak but found the line well from last into second place there. He might be able to make some use of the barrier and put himself around midfield, the Toorak has proven to be a handy form reference for this race so far and he’s not without an each-way chance.

Joliestar (Pic: Bradley Photos)

14. Lake Forest (William Haggas/Ricky Stuart Foundation): Arguably the most mysterious runner in the race, he’s from a stable that knows what’s required to bring a horse to Sydney and be competitive but he’s only ever raced over 1207m in his seven starts. He’s been strong at the finish, particularly his last two at Ascot at Group 1 level and at Newbury, and that Ascot 1200m is testing so you’d think 1500m around Rosehill would be within reach. He’s a horse that will settle off the pace and run on, would be keeping him in quaddie contention at least.

15. Stefi Magnetica (Bjorn Baker/Sporting Chance Cancer Foundation): A little disappointing in the Everest second-up, she did keep coming and perhaps it was a run of a horse who needed more ground after sprinting so well fresh to gain that Everest berth. Stradbroke winner in the winter and the draw will see her do no work early and have the chance to wind up. If she does produce her best form then she’s capable of a top half finish or better.

16. Joliestar (Chris Waller/Sydney Children’s Hospital Foundation): Missed a place for the first time in the Everest but it was also a run of a horse now looking for a bit more ground having raced three times at 1200m this spring. Whether she has the depth of form to beat this field is the question mark. She beat Our Kobison and Phearson in the Show County and could only manage third in the Sheraco. The barrier is probably a help for her, allowing her to wind up and she’ll appreciate a fast run race so she’ll likely get her chance. Feel she’s unders though.

17. Makarena (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes/McGrath Foundation): Nothing to be gained from being negative from the outside gate with a horse who produces her best on the speed, and she has a designated go-forward horse drawn two to her inside. Good effort without looking a winning hope in the Invitation last week and she’s a place chance if she can get into the race early and have some luck.

18. Skybird (Mitchell Freedman/Mark Hughes Foundation): Beaten favourite second-up in what was a plodding performance at Caulfield two weeks ago. Perhaps a case of second-up syndrome as she did hit the line nicely when resuming to just miss. This is the first time she’s been out past 1400m since she ran third behind Joliestar in the Thousand Guineas last year, likely gets back from the wide gate and runs on but would need to put in a big performance.

19. Ascoli Piceno (Yoichi Kuroiwa/Save Our Sons Duchenne Foundation): It’s said she’s in the top two or three fillies in Japan at the moment and clearly a better horse than last year’s winner of this race, her compatriot Obamburumai. A look at her last start win at Nakayama shows she has a dazzling burst off a good tempo, which you’d imagine she will want here. What does barrier 17 do for her? Given her style it probably doesn’t make a great deal of difference so long as she doesn’t find some early trouble. Are we running scared because a lesser credentialed Japanese horse won this race last year? Probably to a degree but if she turns up in her best form it’s hard to imagine her not making an impact.

20. Corazon Beat (Shizuya Kato/Multiple Sclerosis Australia): Was regarded as at least equal to if not better than Ascoli Piceno as a two-year-old, and started favourite in the Group 1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies won by that horse in December last year. She ran third beaten 1-3/4 lengths. Her last couple haven’t been up to scratch and she hasn’t been competitive with Ascoli Piceno. That and barrier 19 makes it hard to mount a case she can beat that filly but stranger things have happened in races. That said she’s entitled to be a big price.

SPEED MAP: Veight from out wide will look to go forward, Makarena might look to tag him across and Lazzat has shown tactical speed in France and from his gate you'd imagine he wants to land on speed somewhere. Griff was ridden back last time but he's drawn to be much handier, Tom Kitten lands better than midfield. Where does the Japanese filly Ascoli Piceno end up? Second half most likely. The big field will generate some tempo but it could be a little less furious than expected.

SELECTIONS:
12 LAZZAT
19 Ascoli Piceno
3 Tom Kitten
1 Southport Tycoon

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Golden Eagle meeting at Rosehill