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By Ray Hickson

Ciaron Maher is confident he has the best horse in Saturday’s Group 1 $2m Bentley Australian Derby (2400m) in classy colt Hitotsu but he says it’s impossible to predict how he’ll cope with the heavy ground at Royal Randwick.

On the plus side, Hitotsu won the Australian Guineas over a mile first-up on a soft 6 surface.

But Maher, who along with co-trainer David Eustace is shooting for back-to-back Derby wins after Explosive Jack’s victory in 2021, suspects Randwick will be akin to the tough American conditions and he simply doesn’t know how it will affect Hitotsu.

“As we’ve seen a lot of horses on the back up have the advantage because it’s conditions you don’t strike very often so it’s all stamina,’’ Maher said.

“It’s a bit like American racing. Horses on the back up have that match fitness you need in these conditions.

“He’s an unknown in the wet but his fitness is very good and he’s a proper good horse.”

Aside from the conditions, Hitotsu has to handle tackling the tough 2400m with just one run under his belt though that doesn’t bother Maher as much.

In the spring he handled the step up from a first-up 1600m run in the Caulfield Guineas to win the Victoria Derby at 2500m three weeks later and while it’s a somewhat similar task the conditions are an added hurdle.

HITOTSU WINS THE AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS! pic.twitter.com/XBAuFUb9hD

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 5, 2022

“I couldn’t be happier with his prep, he hasn’t missed a day’s work. He’s done a couple of reverse gallops,’’ Maher said.

“Explosive Jack was a bigger, stronger, more furnished horse whereas Hitotsu has made really good improvement from the spring. He’s a more athletic type, more scopey, whereas Jack was very strong physically.”

Jockey John Allen is also chasing back-to-back Derby wins having partnered Explosive Jack a year ago.

Hitotsu, $3.70 favourite with TAB on Friday, had his final gallop at Ballarat before heading to Sydney where he’s aiming to be the first horse to claim the Victoria-ATC Derby double since Mahogany in 1994.

Maher said stablemates Can’t Go Wong and Elzamee have similar wet track queries but they earned their places with solid performances in the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) two weeks ago.

They finished second and fourth respectively at double figure odds and of the duo Maher said Can’t Go Wong’s Kiwi pedigree might suggest he’s a good chance of handling the ground.

“There’s not a lot between them. The Alister Clark has been a good stepping stone for our horses in the past,’’ he said.

“We put the blinkers on Can’t Go Wong for the first time and we thought he’d improve which he did.

“Elzamee is a Deep Impact from a good family. He’s had a very solid preparation and he couldn’t have worked any better his last piece of work so it was a bit of a PB for him.

“Again he’s an unknown (in the wet) but fit and well.”

All the fields, form and replays for Day 1 of The Star Championships at Randwick