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By Nick Berney.

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Tuesday's Hawkesbury meeting. Selections based on a soft to heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

8. Have Mercy is coming out of time/sectional merit races all preparation and she had no luck last start at Warwick Farm. The three-year-old filly was checked/blocked at a critical stage losing her momentum and proceeded to battle home ok. She has trialled well in-between runs at this track with the nose roll off and looks well placed back to the provincial level. It’s worth noting local trainer Edward Cummings has had 11 winners from his past 100 runners with a profit on turnover of 13.6%.

Dangers: Market watch 7. Pitavago who hasn’t had an official trial but was too far back in a strong form-race first-up last preparation and returns at her home track. 3. Falreine has trialled ok and rain-affected ground suits. 8. She's Super should've finished closer after having no luck at all in the straight last start at Mudgee. She is rock-hard fit and can roll forward with an anticipated slow/even pace.

How to play it: Have Mercy WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Have Mercy’s latest trial at Hawkesbury on February 18

2. Chief Conductor has been racing well for his new trainer Gary Moore this preparation after breaking through for his maiden win first-up at Wyong and then an honest second-up effort to place at Canterbury 32 days ago. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. Further, there have been three subsequent winners and two placegetters to confirm the form. He should lead from the soft draw, drops in grade, and the step back in distance suits off a freshen.

Dangers: 8. Your Too Good can bounce back with a gear change, and all her peak figures have come on wet ground. The three-year-old fillies last win was at this track and her regular rider Josh Parr jumps back on. 5. Zalini should’ve won last start and the step-up in distance suits.

How to play it: Chief Conductor WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Chief Conductor runs third at Canterbury on February 11

2. Semeco has had factors against all preparation and is coming out of time/sectional merit races at the metropolitan level. The three-year-old gelding raced keen last start at Kensington 27 days ago and receives a key gear change with the blinkers coming off. He has a string of dominant figures relative to his opposition and is ready to peak fourth-up with a positive map.

Dangers: 7. Yggdrasil was outpaced when the tempo quickened last start at Kembla and finished well. She will improve with fitness and the step up in distance suits. 5. Rangitikei started a $2.60 favourite on debut at Goulburn and was solid running fourth. 6. So Incisive is fitter and the likely leader.

How to play it: Semeco WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Semeco’s last start at Kensington on February 16

7. Short Shorts is still learning and racing on pure raw ability. She was solid in her first campaign, running fast time on debut and then brave after sitting wide second-up before being spelled. The three-year-old filly raced keen and didn’t have much luck when resuming 21 days ago at Kembla after losing momentum at a critical stage when checked/blocked and once clear hit the line hard. She is proven on wet ground, has a gear change, maps well, and any improvement on her first-up figure will put her in the finish.

Dangers: 5. Extreme Gem had all favours on debut at Goulburn when box seating then sprinting away to victory. Punter’s Intelligence recorded she ran the fastest 400m/200m sectionals of the meeting in 22.47/11.55 and 1400m suits. 6. Kouklara can be hard to catch but was not suited and had to make a long-wide sustained run last start at Kembla. The four-year-old mare ran the second-fastest 400m-200m split in 10.66 and is rock-hard fit for this assignment. 3. Stay Wealthy was run to suit first-up at Wyong and ran on well. 4. Eyes To Eye hit the front too early at Goulburn and battled away ok.

How to play it: Short Shorts WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Short Shorts first-up at Kembla on February 22

Forgiving of 6. Hollywood North’s second-up effort at Newcastle, where he was heavily backed late in betting from $4.80-$3.60 favourite and raced flat. He was solid prior in a high-pressure fast time race at Warwick Farm that has produced multiple winners and placegetters since. The three-year-old gelding has dominant rating figures relative to his opposition, and if he can repeat his first-up effort from the kind draw, he will be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 9. Gymnastics hit the line hard when resuming at Newcastle and ran the second-fastest final 200m split of the race in 11.81. She will undoubtedly improve with the step-up in distance. 5. Amathuba is the likely leader and fit, but some query with her running out a strong 1300m. 7. California Zim Zim resumes with a gear change and has trialled well enough.

How to play it: Hollywood North WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Hollywood North first-up this preparation running fourth at Warwick Farm on February 24

9. Altimeter hasn’t won in a long-time but gets conditions to suit here, and his last start at Canterbury had merit. The five-year-old gelding got too far back in a very slowly run race and ran on well in the race’s fastest closing sectionals, which also aligned well relative to the meeting. He is rock-hard fit with the 2000m being ideal now, and all peak figures have come on rain-affected ground. Each Way.

Dangers: 11. Bob will have to overcome the wide draw but is rock-hard fit and has an impressive record at this track. 8. Outahand was a dominant winner last start at Albury over this distance, and he can be in the finish if able to reproduce that effort. Apprentice Amy Lucas is in fantastic form, winning on 16 out of her past 100 rides at a profit on turnover of 16.3%. 6. Tinnie Winnie chased a fast tempo and had the bias against her ten days ago at Newcastle in a fast time race. The four-year-old mare receives the blinkers for the first time, and Tommy Berry jumps on. 4. Akahata won well last start at Mudgee and has strong form-lines. 15. Zarafah goes into all exotics.

How to play it: Altimeter E/W ($11.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Altimeter runs fourth at Canterbury on February 25

14. Sneaky Island was every chance in the run last start at Newcastle when smothered away behind the leaders in a slow pace. However, the three-year-old filly was outpaced when the tempo quickened, and once she built up her momentum, she hit the line hard, running the race’s fastest last 200m sectional in 11.49. She indicated that she is ready to run a peak figure up in distance and third-up with optimal fitness. The filly draws barrier one and should be given every hope to win.

Dangers: Forgive 3. Big Short last start when he was plain but sweated up badly pre-race and overraced throughout. 9. Chenin has been solid in her first two career starts, and her figures line up. She has trialled fairly recently, albeit on the Polytrack and is a key market watch late in betting. 13. Mikasa was wide throughout and was checked/blocked, losing all momentum in the final stages at Newcastle last start. 12. Madibas Queen is fit and improving throughout her prep. 10. Facetime may have last shot.

How to play it: Sneaky Island E/W ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Sneaky Island runs second at Newcastle on February 26

Dangers: 6. Devils Throat has been ultra-consistent since his gelding operation and has run strong figures/sectionals relative to most of his opposition. He was heavily backed first-up from $6.5-$3.5 in the Magic Millions Maiden Plate (1200m), where he just got too far back from an awkward barrier to miss in the final few bounds. He then was just nosed out second-up and ran fast closing sectionals at Kensington with a big gap to third. The three-year-old gelding made amends after having all favours at Canterbury 25 days ago and sprinted away to victory. He may be able to go on with it now and expect a quieter ride from the wide draw with him running on strongly.

13. All But Gone represents value who has rating figures that line up and can sprint well fresh off one soft trial. Market watch 2. Maranoa who returns after a progressive first preparation and then was spelled after failing in the Group 1 QLD Derby (2400m). 4. Zoo Station was perfectly ridden last start at Mudgee and will be running on again strongly. 8. Huzzah can bounce back on an improving track.

How to play it: Devil's Throat WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Devil's Throat wins at Canterbury on February 18

Best Bet: Race 8 # 6 – Devil's Throat.

Next Best: Race 5 # 6 – Hollywood North.

Best Value: Race 7 # 14 – Sneaky Island.

Quaddie

Leg 1: 6,9
Leg 2: 4,6,8,9,11,15
Leg 3: 3,9,10,12,13,14
Leg 4: 6,13

Combinations = 144.

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday’s Hawkesbury meeting