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By Nick Berney

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting. Selections based on a good track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

Leaning towards 6. Jared who has a strong platform and is ready to peak third-up. The three-year-old wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape last start at this track 11 days ago and got too far back. Further, he made up significant ground and sprinted some of the fastest closing splits of the meeting. The gelding will appreciate the rise in trip, has a fitness edge over some of his key rivals and maps to have all favours.

Dangers: 7. Brave Agenda resumes and has trialled well enough in preparation for this assignment. The filly brings strong metropolitan form lines and will roll forward from the inside gate. 8. Lozen, a knockout chance, is coming through a high-rating race and returning to her home track. 3. Highland Eightree can only improve up in distance and add 5. Hard Pick to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Jared WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds).

Jared runs third at Hawkesbury on October 8

8. Narrative is on a quick nine-day backup after racing well last start at Newcastle, and she started hard in the market. The mare had all favours leading at a slow pace but sprinted hard, and the race produced a high-rating last section relative to the day. Expect her to be ridden with cover from a favourable draw, and she has multiple winning figures for this event.

Dangers: Debutant 3. Smart Action has trialled well and looks wound up for this assignment. He went through the line full of energy in his latest heat and has been well-supported in early markets. 9. Star Legacy raced in the inferior ground first-up and will improve with fitness. 4. Struff is 35 days between runs but is an honest on-pace type.

How to play it: Narrative WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds).

Narrative runs second at Newcastle on October 10

3. Seneschal brings a dominant ratings profile to this event and has a positive race setup here. The gelding was an alarming drifter first-up at Kensington but was honest running third in a strong rating race relative to the day. He will undoubtedly be fitter for that event, and all key indicators suggest he can only improve off that effort. In addition, he is well suited to the race conditions and hard to hold out with even luck.

Dangers: 1. Avonview is a key market watch after having 43 days between runs, but he brings a competitive profile. He has started hard in the market throughout his career, and with the lack of anticipated tempo, he can roll forward. 5. Stand In Line is coming through a high-rating race and ran home ok last start at Goulburn. The rise in trip suits, and he can settle closer from the soft draw. 7. Criminal Act has raced consistently at this distance and will be thereabouts again.

How to play it: Seneschal WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds).

Seneschal runs third last start at Kensington on October 4

11. Sweet Proposal, who represents value, resumes and has had two quiet trials leading into this assignment. The filly had the race shape against on debut last prep after getting too far back in a slowly run race, but she ran on hard and clocked the meetings fastest final 200m. Further, she then had excuses second-up at Warwick Farm but started hard in the market against the likes of Arctic Glamour and Joliestar. The three-year-old maps well from the inside gate and, with an anticipated genuine tempo, expect her to be savaging the Line. Good each-way.

Dangers: Market watch 1. Storm The Rampant who is now in the hands of new trainer Joe Pride, and he raced well last prep with multiple winning figures for this. 2. Dilution maps to have all favours and a rise in trip suits. Add 14. Jaex to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Sweet Proposal E/W ($10 TAB Fixed Odds).

Sweet Proposal's latest trial at Warwick Farm on October 9

6. Rise To It is an improving middle-distance type, and he hit the line hard to score last start at this track. Further, his final 200m split had merit relative to the day, and there was a big gap to third to confirm the quality of the race. He has a strong SP profile, maps to have all favours and can step again from a ratings perspective, getting out to 2000m.

Dangers: 3. Celestial Fury started in the market in a Midway Handicap (1800m) last start at Randwick, but he had no luck. The five-year-old was building into the race but was checked/blocked over the final stages. He has a competitive figure at this track/distance and can roll forward, which will suit his pattern. 2. Whetu bolted in last start, and repeating that performance will make him hard to beat. 5. Radiohead drops in grade and 7. Silvakia is ready to improve.

How to play it: Rise To It ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).

Rise To It wins at Hawkesbury on October 21

1. Cholante resumes off a long break and is now in the hands of trainers Richard & Will Freedman. The mare has trialled well and showed a sharp turn of foot to score in a recent heat at Rosehill. Moreover, she brings superior form lines to this event relative to her rivals and looks forward enough for this outing. She has the ability, maps to be within striking distance and if solid in the market, expect her to be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 6. Spirit Of Varanasi is in career-best form and just got too far back last start after being restrained from a wide draw. She sprinted some of the meeting's fastest closing sectionals and can settle closer from the kind draw. 2. Gilmore comes through the same race and started much shorter in the market. Tommy Berry rides, and she is at optimal fitness now. 5. Perfect Proposal is an honest on-pace type, and 4. Amazing Nicci will be running on.

How to play it: Cholante WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).

Cholante wins a trial at Rosehill on October 3

Forgive 5. Disneck's last start at Kensington, where he raced wide and had the bias against. Prior to that start, he ran well when finishing third in a fast-time race behind Balkans. The three-year-old brings strong form lines to this event, drops sharply in grade and maps to have all favours. Additionally, he has multiple winning ratings for this event, and a senior rider goes on. Each-way.

Dangers: 4. Soobooco is still relatively lightly raced and has trialled well in preparation for this assignment. He won well first-up last prep after being heavily backed, and repeating that performance will make him hard to catch. Some query his best form is on rain-affected ground, but he finds a winnable race here. 7. Feel The Knight is ready to peak third-up down in grade. Market watch on 3. Raging Rush, who ran strong closing splits last start at Dubbo.

How to play it: Disneck WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).

Disneck last start at Kensington on October 4

5. It'sacircus is a lightly raced improver with upside and profiles well for this event. The three-year-old hit the line hard on debut to score running one of the fastest final 200m splits of the meeting and was just outsprinted second-up at Newcastle. Further, once he balanced up, he found the line well to finish third in a high-rating race relative to the day. His sectional profile suggests the rise to 1600m third-up is ideal, and he has a strong platform to produce a new peak figure. In addition, he is adaptable, and with even luck, expect him to be hard to hold out.

Dangers: 3. Street Candi can improve sharply with an improved race setup. She was honest first-up in a strong grade and is much more suited here with a significant barrier change allowing her to roll forward. 9. Single Crown is rock-hard fit and drops back to the provincial circuit with an inside draw. 1. Sovereign Express will appreciate returning to his home track and add 4. Whisker To Whisker to wider exotics.

How to play it: It'sacircus WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).

It'sacirucs runs third at Newcastle on October 10

Best Bet: Race 8 # 5 – It'sacircus

Next Best: Race 3 # 3 – Seneschal

Best Value: Race 4 # 11 – Sweet Proposal

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Hawkesbury meeting