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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in Thursday's $150,000 Polytrack Provincial-Midway Championships Qualifier (1400m) at Hawkesbury.

1. Roma Avenue (Sara Ryan, Wyong): Had a mixed preparation last time in and could be something of a dark horse first-up. He failed fresh but that was on a heavy and he was reported to have cardiac arrhythmia, so a decent excuse. Then won second-up at 1400m. Last time we saw him he was involved in a speed battle with 62.5kg in the Coonamble Cup and naturally weakened out of a placing. He’s been trialling well, tends to race on pace, and while his first-up record doesn’t recommend him plenty of other stats do. Each-way chance.

2. High Blue Sea (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou, Rosehill): Has been a little hit and miss overall but started off this preparation with a promising Midway effort then converted into a win at Randwick where he ran down Bunker Hut over the 1400m. Two subsequent runs have been okay though did run below expectation behind Yorkshire, when $11 into $6.50, when finishing midfield. Draws to get a nice enough run and his best is good enough if he finds it.

Magnatear (Pic: Bradley Photos).

3. Magnatear (Richard & Will Freedman, Rosehill): His pattern is well exposed and he’ll roll across to the front and likely take up the running. Past two Midway wins have been at the mile so he has to come back to the 1400m and be just as effective which is the slight query. That said he did lead and was run down when second behind Emmadella three runs back at 1400m and it probably comes down to how comfortably he gets across and what control he’s afforded. If that happens then he’s a good chance.

4. Northern Eyes (Kim Waugh, Wyong): Enjoyed an excellent preparation at the start of the season winning four straight including a couple at this track and was able to win a Midway at 1400m. There’s a couple of queries, his first-up record isn’t flash (though did run fourth at 1000m fresh last prep) and he has that wide gate but draws next to the likely leader. The other is he trialled twice in December and hasn’t been seen publicly since. If he’s here he’s an interesting runner.

5. Overriding (Nathan Doyle, Newcastle): Talented mare who was tried in some strong races last year including a couple at Group 3 level with a third placing her best effort there. Finished midfield in the Big Dance before a spell. Not disgraced when resuming over 1200m at Rosehill, getting well back and working to the line okay beaten just under three lengths. Fitter, drawn one, and form around the likes of Gringotts and Willaidow reads pretty well for this race. Ten months since her last win but this is probably her best chance.

6. Bojangles (Kim Waugh, Wyong): Freshened up since his spring/early summer campaign where he threatened to win a race but just couldn’t get things to fall into place. Last seen charging home from the back behind Accredited and Yorkshire at Randwick just before Christmas. Comes here with no public trials and a slightly tricky gate but the likelihood is he’ll strike a truly run race. If he can produce the sort of effort that saw him run second din the Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas last year then he’s a strong chance.

7. Jacob’s Time (Anthony Mountney, Kembla Grange): Scored a nice win over a mile at Hawkesbury back in November and ran a handy Midway third at his next start so he’s an improving type. Gallant effort in the Bega Cup where he had to do a decent amount of work from a wide gate to get up outside the leader then when he was put under pressure early in the straight boxed on okay to hold fourth. Has to come back to the 1400m but drawn well and a place wouldn’t shock.

8. Rapt (Jason Deamer, Newcastle): Kept on the fresh side for the drop to 1400m after a close up effort in The Wave at the Sunshine Coast in early January. She was a well supported favourite when winning a Midway at Randwick over a mile prior to that. She’ll likely go back from the wide gate so that’s not an issue for her and you’d have to say she hasn’t done a whole lot wrong this time in. Will need things to go her way but not discounting her.

9. Harlow Mist (John Sargent, Randwick): Her racing pattern doesn’t help her at times so it’ll be interesting to see where she lands from a good gate with a genuine tempo up front. Had the run of the race when winning a Midway at Newcastle in November, last time out she was a shade unlucky when breathing down the neck of Oh Diamond Lil in a Randwick Midway. The question is whether the 1400m is too sharp for her, if it isn’t she’s hard to beat.

10. Emmadella (John Thompson, Randwick): Looked in for a super preparation with her impressive Midway win second-up, where she went straight past Magnatear. Wet track was blamed for her subsequent failure and she was safely held by Point And Shoot at Randwick up to the mile. Just wonder whether the wheels have fallen off but she will get the chance to settle and run on. Couldn’t have on last couple but she’s entitled to be kept safe as she’s always promised to be well above average.

11. Fugitiva (Robert & Luke Price, Kembla Grange): Was warming up at the finish of her resumption in a mares Benchmark 78 finishing right on the back of the placegetters. In the top three in eight of her 12 starts to date so she’s quite honest and she improved to win second-up at her last preparation at this track. Will relish the 1400m and is still on the way up, if there is a question mark it’s her last two wins have come on heavy tracks.

Harlow Mist (Pic: Steve Hart).

12. Art Volant (Richard & Will Freedman, Rosehill): Kicked off the preparation in style with an easy win at Newcastle in a small field but can’t find an excuse for her two unplaced runs in small field since then. Gets a 5.5kg drop in the weights on last start which will help but there are probably easier races for her.

13. Hasty Honey (Brad Widdup, Hawkesbury): Locally trained mare who sat handy second-up at Randwick and didn’t find the line, weakening late to finish worse than midfield. Only beaten a couple of lengths but disappointing nonetheless. Notched a Group 3 placing last autumn on a heavy track and finished sixth in the Hawkesbury Guineas. Suggest she has to be conservatively ridden to find the line here but she does need to improve on what she’s put forward recently.

14. Denetta (Damien Lane, Wyong): Hasn’t fired in two runs back from a break in easier races than this and at generous odds. From the wide gate she’ll likely have to go right back and she’ll need to improve on her finish behind Spicy Hotpot at Canterbury a month ago. Two and a half years since her last win. But it’s worth noting that she did run second in one of these qualifying races in 2023 at Hawkesbury.

SPEED MAP: The speed hinges a bit on whether Northern Eyes takes his place as he's drawn alongside logical leader Magnatear who will also press forward. Roma Avenue likes to race handy to the speed as well. It then comes down to who wants to land in the next few spots. Harlow Mist and High Blue Sea and Jacob's Time are best placed from their draws to be there.

SELECTIONS:
5 OVERRIDING
6 Bojangles
9 Harlow Mist
3 Magnatear

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday's Provincial-Midway Championships meeting at Hawkesbury