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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million Kia Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

1. Militarize (Chris Waller): Sires and Champagne winner as a two-year-old and nobody would have missed his first-up performance in the Run To The Rose where he gave away weight and a big head start over an unsuitable trip and went down under a length. We know he will relish the step up to 1400m and on the evidence of his first-up run a good track holds no fears even though his Group 1 wins were on wet ground. The barrier is enormous for him and he’ll have the blinkers on so there’s every chance he’ll be a lot closer. If that’s the case he is very dangerous.

2. Shinzo (Chris Waller): To be blunt, history says the two-year-old of the year from last season can’t win the Golden Rose. No colt has done the Slipper-Rose double and no horse has won the race first-up. Add to that he has a barrier that will see him most likely give away a big start on a firmish track unless Ryan Moore can weave some magic and put him midfield. Which looks unlikely. His last official trial was a month ago and he had an exhibition gallop three weeks back, missed the Run To The Rose and reportedly had a private jump out last week. We know on his two-year-old form he is good enough to beat the odds but you’ll have to take him on trust. Do expect him to be steaming home, though.

Cylinder (outside) wins the Run To The Rose (Pic: Steve Hart)

3. Cylinder (James Cummings): Is the Godolphin colt foxing this preparation or is he a false favourite? That said, if he’s not favourite who should be? He had the Slipper shot to pieces before Shinzo swamped him. He fell in first-up at Caulfield as a $1.50 chance and while he was always going to take improvement it was unimpressive. The Run To The Rose was another narrow win and in a blanket finish, yes he was held up for a run for quite a while and you had to like how he sprinted to get there in time. In a race that looks to lack genuine speed on paper he’ll likely be in the right spot. We know this has been his aim, he’s had the right preparation and the fact is he has won both lead up runs. So he’s entitled to be favourite but have marked as a vulnerable one.

4. King Colorado (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Thrown in the deep end in the Winx Stakes first-up since his win in the JJ Atkins in the Brisbane winter. That was a Group 1 and raised his profile no end as he came off a Kembla maiden win. His run in the Winx was sound, didn’t think he had a flashing light on but he was taking on hardened weight-for-age performers and was only beaten 2.4 lengths. Since then he was given a solid hitout to win a trial running down Rise Of The Masses and Manwe over 1040m. Where does he end up from the gate? The only evidence we have from wide draws is his maiden win and he sat third in that 1400m race. Not sure where he stands but respecting the WFA lead up.

5. Don Corleone (Peter & Paul Snowden): Found himself stuck three wide better than midfield in the Run To The Rose which isn’t ideal for a first-up run and while he was safely seen off early in the straight he did hold his ground okay beaten 1.5 lengths. So it was hardly a failure after doing plenty of work. At two he was right around the mark against all the big guns from this race with placings in the Blue Diamond and Sires’ plus a fourth in the Slipper so it would be no surprise to see him in the finish if things go his way. He has the draw to afford him every chance so has to be respected and seems quite big odds.

6. Libertad (Annabel Neasham): Have to mark him disappointing from the Run To The Rose even though he was beaten under two lengths. He had the box seat run and just didn’t pick up at all, conceding over a length to the horse he was following and beating just one home. On that effort he can’t win this race but he was impressive first-up in the San Domenico and you should always forgive them one bad run. Started $3.30 last start, now well into double figures for this.

7. Moravia (Michael Freedman): He’s been a revelation since he won a Newcastle maiden on debut and does look the likely leader the way the field and barriers have fallen. He was game behind Libertad in the San Domenico and Cylinder just nabbed him in the Run To The Rose. Like a few he’s unproven at 1400m but if they allow him any control at all of the speed we know he likes to fight and he could give them something to catch.

8. Encap (Gary Portelli): Another who has exploded onto the scene in recent weeks. Was still a maiden when a luckless third in the Up And Coming Stakes but made good use of barrier one and was dominant in taking out the Ming Dynasty, ticking that 1400m box. The barrier gods have been kind to him again so you’d imagine he’ll look to be right on the back of the pace once again. If that bunched finish to the Run To The Rose means there’s a question over that form then he’s chiming in at the right time. Undeniable chance.

9. Butch Cassidy (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Sat outside the lead in the Run To The Rose and boxed on strongly to run fourth in that close finish. He was also sound in the Rosebud first-up. Probably faced with having to sit outside the lead or look to tuck into the one-one from that gate so he might face an uphill battle out further in trip. Probably entitled to be the price he is around the $34 mark.

10. Nadal (Ciaron Maher & David Eustace): Maiden winner first-up in good style and ran right up to it and more with a slashing third in the Run To The Rose. He was slow out and buried back at the tail on the fence before working into the clear and winding up nicely late beaten under half a length. Unfortunately the barrier is a huge negative unless they roll the dice and try to push forward, which would seem unlikely. So he’ll have to be ridden for luck and hope they overdo it up front.

11. Snapback (Peter & Paul Snowden): Always showed promise but didn’t put his first win on the board until a Goulburn maiden two weeks ago against five rivals. It was more like a barrier trial but it also makes it puzzling as to how he lines up. If you look back to last season he started $6.50 in the JJ Atkins and ran fifth and was unlucky in the BRC Sires’ before that. Blinkers go on, which might see him look to roll forward given where he settled in that Group 2 race after drawing wide. Market says no at 100/1 though.

Encap (Pic: Grant Guy)

12. General Salute (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): It wouldn’t be the biggest upset if this colt happened to come away with the Group 1 but it would also be a big performance after coming up with a double figure marble. He was excellent in the San Domenico running into fourth then again in the Run To The Rose. He was back with Militarize and made his run at the same time, finishing just behind that horse on the line. Probably couldn’t turn the tables given the weights that day but he’s got talent and is not the worst if the race pans out for him.

13. Charm Stone (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): The only filly in the race and she brings completely different form to Sydney. She was one of the main fancies for the Blue Diamond early on but didn’t contest that race due to some issues after going down as a $2.15 favourite in a Prelude. But this spring she’s been outstanding with two wins against the fillies in Melbourne. The latest of those was particularly strong given she sat wide around the Valley and still surged away in the straight to win by well over a length. It suggests 1400m will be no issue, barrier one will no doubt be used to put her in a stalking position and it comes down to whether she’s up to them. It’s a small leap of faith but there’s every chance she is especially given the finish to the Run To The Rose lead up already mentioned. Hard to beat.

SPEED MAP: On paper it looks like Moravia leads from barrier four. Cylinder has the chance to come across with him and either sit outside or allow something else to come over and give him cover, perhaps Butch Cassidy. You'd imagine Charm Stone and Encap look to use their barriers to be right on the back of the first few. Big question marks with what King Colorado, Snapback and General Salute do from out wider and with the latter two having blinkers added. If one or more go forward it could inject a bit more speed than there looks to be at face value. Militarize has blinkers on and gate two so he could be midfield. Shinzo has to go back. Any tactics changes on race morning may shed some light.

SELECTIONS:
13 CHARM STONE
8 Encap
3 Cylinder
1 Militarize

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting