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By Nick Berney

An in-depth look at every runner in the $15 million TAB Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Nature Strip (Chris Waller): Showed the key asset of adaptability in the Group 2 Shorts (1100m) and won with ease first-up. Further, he relaxed behind a moderate tempo, and once produced for an effort, he sprinted one of the meeting's fastest 400m-200m splits in 11.15. The Chris Waller trained galloper reaches his grand final where, historically, he goes to a new level and repeating his past TAB Everest (1200m) or Group 1 T J Smith Stakes (1200m) performances will make him awfully hard to beat.

Summary: He follows a different pattern from previous preparations, but his peak figures have come at this track/distance off a 28 or 35-day freshen and on rain-affected ground. In addition, although drawn wide, he will roll forward and the gelding excels in high-pressure events. The world’s best sprinter is the deserved short-priced favourite with a dominant ratings profile relative to his rivals.

2. Eduardo (Joe Pride): Had all favours winning first-up in the Concorde Stakes (1000m), but that race rated highly relative to the day even after adjusting for age, class and additional factors. Second-up, the gelding was fancied $4-$3.5 late in the trade and, although suited by the pace of the race, he battled on ok.

Summary: The nine-year-old will undoubtedly roll forward with his natural gate speed and likely lead the Everest in the early stages. He is as consistent as they come, his regular jockey Nash Rawillier goes back on and he has an outstanding affiliation with the gelding. Additionally, he has had 14 rides on him for nine wins, two seconds and two thirds. There is a genuine case to be made that he is value going off his starting price profile versus Nature Strip.

3. Lost And Running (John O’Shea): Raced four-wide without cover first-up in the Group 2 Shorts (1100m) and covered an extra 4.9 metres relative to the winner Nature Strip. To his credit, he clocked the race’s third-quickest final 200m split and maintained a strong finishing speed to the line. The six-year-old started a fancied $2.25 favourite in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes (1200m) and was exposed early, making a long, sustained, run to score.

Summary: He brings an X-factor to this race, has come back improved this preparation and is a more mature horse compared to last year’s event. The gelding is on an upwards ratings spiral this campaign and is primed to run a career peak figure with a perfect map. Definite chance.

4. Masked Crusader (Team Hawkes): Has had factors against in both of his runs this preparation and is primed for a peak performance. Last run in the Premiere Stakes (1200m) he got too far back, was forced into the inferior ground, and ran one of the meeting’s fastest final 600m splits in 35.19.

Summary: The six-year-old's sectional/ratings profile suggests he is going as well as last year and is on track to perform at his best. He has produced his career peak figures at this track/distance when the winkers have been applied. His racing pattern is the obvious concern, but all key factors indicate he is ready to win and over the odds. Major player.

5. Mazu (Peter & Paul Snowden): The gelding was wide first-up in the Group 2 Shorts (1100m) and then never shirked his task, running second after chasing a fast tempo in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes (1200m).

Summary: The Peter & Paul Snowden camp has had him building throughout the prep, and he is set towards a career peak performance. Moreover, he has an imposing record, is consistent as they come and is proven on rain-affected ground. Some query where he gets to from the draw and possibly a year too early. However, is a definite place chance.

6. Private Eye (Joe Pride): The five-year-old trialled well without the blinkers before his first-up assault in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes (1200m). Further, the blinkers went back on for race day and he bolted in and clocked the fastest final 600m split of the entire meeting.

Summary: The gelding is coming off a career peak figure and can improve again. He maps to receive a smother and getting the breaks in the straight can see him hitting the line hard. Knockout chance.

7. Overpass (Bjorn Baker): Was solid first-up in the Group 2 Shorts (1100m) battling on well for third, albeit found to be lame post-race. Additionally, he regressed second-up when finishing sixth in the genuinely run Premiere Stakes (1200m).

Summary: If the four-year-old can bounce back to his first-up performance from the soft draw, he can run a race and is a possible place chance.

8. Ingratiating (James Cummings): Got too far back last Saturday in the Group 2 Schillaci (1100m) but ran on well after starting at $7.50 in the market. Further, he clocked the meeting’s second fastest 400m-200m split but peaked on his run over the final furlong.

Summary: The Godolphin trained galloper will be fitter for that effort and is proven on a rain-affected surface. He will handle the fast tempo and will be running on.

9. Joyful Fortune (Mark Newnham): The import led at an even tempo in his Australian debut in a BM 70 (1200m) at Flemington and bolted in, winning by 4.25 lengths. Additionally, he ran the meeting’s fastest final 600m/400m splits. The gelding has since won a trial at Rosehill Gardens under light riding and ran strong closing sectionals.

Summary: He has drawn perfectly for his racing style but must jump from benchmark grade to against Australia’s best sprinters, which is a tough ask second-up.

10. Shades Of Rose (Bjorn Baker): Has progressed through the grades this preparation and has won her last four starts, including the Group 2 Sheraco Stakes (1200m). The mare has since had a tick-over trial at Rosehill, running third behind Joyful Fortune.

Summary: The Bjorn Baker galloper gets her shot against the elite and does have a positive racing style. However, some query that, although freshened, she has still been up for a long time this preparation.

11. Jacquinot (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Was outstanding, winning the Group 1 Golden Rose after still being 15 metres off the lead at the 300m mark before accelerating hard and savaging the line. He clocked one of the fastest 400m/200m splits of the meeting in 22.16/11.18. Prior to that start, he was dominant again at Caulfield in the Group 3 McNeil Stakes (1200m) and proved he excels in high-pressure events.

Summary: The three-year-old colt can sprint off slow/fast tempos and is still yet to reach his ceiling. He has the potential to step again and races best off a freshen-up. Profiles well for this race, and if he can be within striking distance at the furlong pole look for him to savage the line. Chance.

12. Giga Kick (Clayton Douglas): Is undefeated, and his profile suggests his peak performances come off a freshen-up. Last start, he raced on speed in a fast tempo at Flemington in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes (1100m) and held off all challengers late to win bravely.

Summary: The three-year-old has drawn to have all favours and has shown a strong turn off foot in the past. However, this is his first time stepping out to 1200m in a high-pressure event. It’s hard to knock an unbeaten horse, but he jumps sharply to the elite level.

Overall Analysis: Nature Strip must be the top pick with his profile and, if he can reproduce his previous grand final figures/performances it’ll make him very hard to beat. Masked Crusader will need luck with his racing pattern but is over the odds and the main danger. Private Eye has a knockout chance and will be smothered away throughout. Lost And Running is the complete package now and will be savaging the line.

Selections

1. NATURE STRIP
4. Masked Crusader
6. Private Eye
11. Jacquinot

All the fields, form and replays for TAB Everest Day at Royal Randwick