Latest News

By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 3 $250,000 James Squire Festival Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. Comments reflect the expectation of a rain affected track, potentially in the soft to heavy range if the forecast is anywhere near right.

1. Private Eye (Joe Pride): On the surface he appears an unlikely runner given the prospect of a wet track, top weight and the wide barrier. But, the last two times he’s raced on a decent rain affected track he led the All Aged back in April on a heavy 10 and ran third then tackled the Doomben 10,000 on a soft 7 and finished a length off Bella Nipotina. Clearly his recent form is just a bit below his best, perhaps a wet track might be what he needs? Have to be forgiving of The Hunter as he wound up last when you needed to be up there and really only got warm when it was all over. If he’s there on race day it means Joe Pride thinks he’ll handle some give so he’d have to still be respected.

2. Mighty Ulysses (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Hot and cold has been his pattern so far in six starts in Australia but when he’s been hot it’s been when there’s some give in the track. That appears to be what he’ll face this time. He sprouted wings to win first-up at Caulfield on a soft 6 but was nowhere near as effective on top of the ground at Flemington. He’s a very interesting runner, drawn well and if a soft track or worse is what he needs he could be right in the ball game.

3. Hoo Ya Mal (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): A shade unusual to have kicked off at 2000m then drops 500m second-up (note he was an acceptor for the 2000m ATC Cup). Thought he was quite disappointing when he returned at the start of the month, he was in the market and didn’t make any real impact only holding his ground. Perhaps a potential wet track offsets the distance drop to a degree. On the plus side his second-up form is good but doesn’t look a great set up for him.

4. Chrysaor (Chris Waller): Hasn’t he been a difficult one to catch! Looked super winning first-up on a heavy track at big odds in Melbourne but went missing in, admittedly, a couple of pretty strong races in the TAB Epsom and the Golden Eagle. He was excellent against the pattern in The Hunter, running on from the second half of the field to just miss third placing. If you add that run to a wet track he has to come into consideration. The niggle is that his record is hardly consistent so he’s very much one to take on trust even with a promising set up.

St Lawrence (Pic: Steve Hart).

5. Felix Majestic (Gary Nickson): Possibly a doubt over him lining up if we are talking a heavy track and that would change the complexion of the race significantly given his front-running style. Was he aided by the on-pace pattern in The Hunter? Probably, but he still ran his usual honest race. You know what you’re going to get with Felix, and that’s a run for your money if the track isn’t too affected. If it is he’s either not running or a bit easier to overlook.

6. St Lawrence (Ciaron Maher): He’s struck a real purple patch of form with successive wins at Randwick over a mile a month apart. He’s only been a fringe chance according to the market in both of those wins, around the $10-$12 mark, but he’s finished strongly to win them and the form through the Little Dance win held up with Estadio Mestalla winning last weekend. His wet track stats are quite honest though it could probably be argued he’s better on top of the ground because that’s what all his recent form is on. If he puts the same purpose into his finish on soft or worse he has to be considered a chance.

7. Xidaki (Peter Snowden): Have to overlook his run in the Golden Eagle where he was safely held because all his previous form is consistent, and he is proven in rain affected ground. He’d really only have to run up to his close second in the Silver Eagle to be hard to beat here. Struck successive heavy tracks before his spell for a second at Randwick beaten in a photo and a Group 3 win at the Sunshine Coast and the latter was third-up as he is in this. Hard to fault.

8. Coastwatch (Richard & Will Freedman): Not a lot of wet track exposure leaves a big question mark over his chances and he did seem to have every hope in The Hunter on good ground. He raced inside the winner, who sat three deep, and was outsprinted by him but he did hold his ground okay to finish midfield. His efforts were sound first and second-up without a lot of luck, clearly he’s good enough to be in the picture somewhere if he gets the right conditions but an each-way hope.

9. Cotehele (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): There’s potential for improvement from this gelding after the one run back from a year off the scene. It was in The Hunter and he beat a couple home but it’s well documented that it was difficult to make ground. Private Eye was about a length and a half behind him on the turn and beat him by that margin but that horse was fifth-up. He does have some wet track credentials, draws well and seems to like Rosehill so it wouldn’t surprise at all if he lifts sharply.

10. Kintyre (Gary Portelli): Another coming through the Golden Eagle who wasn’t quite up to the mark in that race but beaten five or so lengths wasn’t a bad run. Prior to that he’d been threatening to do something with some handy efforts in the lead up to the Epsom. He’s one that won’t mind some give in the track, a lot of his autumn form was in the wet including a Group 3 win, so if things go his way in the run there’s a good chance he could figure in the finish.

11. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): Supported into favouritism in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury at his third run for the Baker yard but after going back at the start he was never in the race and ran on into a midfield finish. He hasn’t run badly in all three starts of late but he’s not really jumped out of the ground either. Wouldn’t mind a soft track, he’s performed well with some give previously but only had the one go at heavy and failed. Double figure chance seems about right.

12. So Dazzling (John Sargent): First-up since the Sydney Cup and trialled twice, the latest at 1200m where she was a bit soft late in fourth place. Interesting that her best form is on wet tracks, she won her only race to date on a heavy 10 and she was runner-up in the ATC Oaks of last year on a soft 7. So there’s some case to be made that if the track is testing she could produce something cheeky fresh.

13. Need Some Luck (SCRATCHED).

14. King Of The Castle (Joe Pride): On the back up after battling on under 63kg at Kembla Grange last weekend on a fast-ish track where he just held his ground throughout. Different scenario here with a 10kg drop, blinkers on first time and he give out of the track shouldn’t hamper him. You never like to have to turn around a below par effort within seven days but his two previous runs this prep were excellent and you’d say there were genuine excuses last week. Yet to strike the board in five runs at Rosehill, a fourth is his best, not sure how significant that is but the last one was in the Winter Challenge over this course in July and he was $3.80 and ran eighth with every chance. Capable if he can bounce back to his best form.

King Of The Castle (Pic: Steve Hart).

15. Tannhauser (Chris Waller): Started to show his talent in the autumn with some big efforts on wet tracks but we’ve seen him just once this prep. That was in the Theo Marks, 1300m is way too short for him, and he ran on strongly to be beaten two lengths by Encap on a good track. Two months later he had a trial and he arrives in this race. He seems dangerous, we know he’s got the talent particularly in the wet and doubt a wide barrier will be a factor if it is wet. It could be a plus by that stage. Wouldn’t overlook him, and keep an eye on the market.

16. So United (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Might be a watch and see proposition first-up for two months and even more so if we’re in the heavy range. His form has been below par in two runs this season and his trials fair, under plenty of pressure in the latest. Fresh record isn’t encouraging so would have to leave him aside.

17. Super Helpful (Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones): Capable type and he has a handy wet track record on his side, a lot of it a couple of years ago. Signalled he was about to his form with a midfield finish in the Barn Dance before hitting the line late at Canberra last Sunday behind Chorlton Lane. That was basically a city race and not a lot inferior to this line up. Limit weight, gate one and Zac Lloyd are pluses and he’s not the worst.

18. Uzziah (Scott Aspery): On pacer who has gone up a notch this time in with two wins and a game third from three runs and he led all the way to win the last at Newcastle on The Hunter program. Stays down in the weights and he will position himself either in or near the lead. As far as a wet track goes, he did run fourth in a Midway back in April on a heavy but he hasn’t looked quite as comfortable. Soft probably wouldn’t harm his chances. If he gets comfortable and can hold his form he's in this.

SPEED MAP: We have two designated on pacers as it stands with Uzziah and Felix Majestic pairing off in front and both are capable of running them along. If they aren't there for whatever reason it's anyone's to lead. Kintyre won't want to lead but can race handy, So United does like to be on pace over more ground and perhaps Coastwatch and Xidaki can be forward from their wider gates.

SELECTIONS:
11 KINTYRE
7 Xidaki
6 St Lawrence
2 Mighty Ulysses

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting