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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1 million Coolmore Classic (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

1. Amelia’s Jewel (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): You’d have to say she was gifted the Guy Walter Stakes first-up as James McDonald was allowed to dictate the pace and turn it into a sprint home. Under those circumstances she was never going to be beaten. But it might turn out to be the win she needed after a first preparation for the stable where she ran some good races but wasn’t able to convert. She does have a task with the 58kg but offset to a degree by drawing well in a race that should have good speed from wider out to make it genuinely run. That gives her a good set up on paper to run well.

2. Olentia (Chris Waller): There’s a little bit of Espiona, who won this race a couple of years ago, in this mare and she shouldn’t be underestimated. While she was beaten 2-1/2 lengths by Amelia’s Jewel last start she had no hope of getting near her after settling last in what was a sprint home. She’s 1.5kg better off, drawn better, and after two sit and sprints she’ll relish a more truly run race. If she’s afforded the right run and can pounce late then she can put herself in the finish at good odds.

Olentia (Pic: Steve Hart)

3. Alsephina (Grant & Alana Williams): If you look up ‘forgive run’ in the dictionary her picture could possibly be there following a Sydney debut that connections would surely like to forget. She finished last in the Guy Walter but not sure there was any part of the race where she was able to find some room to stretch out. She’s been ultra consistent through her career so far so judging on one ‘bad run’ is a little naïve. Blake Shinn won on her last prep, she’s drawn well again so it would surprise nobody if she jumped out of the ground.

4. Lady Shenandoah (Chris Waller): It’s been 16 years since a three-year-old filly won this race and that was Typhoon Tracy who carried just 51kg. A couple of years earlier Tuesday Joy carried 53kg to win. So with 54.5kg she’s going to need to be as good as everyone believes to continue on her winning way. That said, 54.5kg is hardly a crushing impost and James McDonald riding at that weight is a big lead. She had to fight harder than most expected to win the Surround. Imagine James will look to follow the speed across and be in a stalking position again and if that’s the case she’s the one to beat as the market suggests.

5. Marble Arch (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Interesting mare who brings a solid winning record into her first attempt at Group 1 level. This is her 10th run of the preparation but you could argue she keeps getting better and she beat a couple of smart ones in Attrition and Zardozi in the Blamey. Even considering that form she's very hard to line up. She has generally a pattern that will see her in the first half of the field and she runs a strong mile so it comes down to if she’s good enough.

6. Lady Of Camelot (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Hard to believe last year’s Golden Slipper winner hasn’t won a race since then but she’s been gallant in races like an Everest and particularly in her clashes with Lady Shenandoah of late. Just had to do that extra bit of work last time but when challenged she didn’t go down without a fight. From that near outside gate she will roll forward likely with Grinzinger Belle and it’ll be interesting to see if she presses to lead or is happy to sit up. Pattern might dictate that. There’s no way she should be left out of the discussion.

7. Coeur Volante (Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson): Obviously there’ll be plenty of sentiment riding with her given the recent passing of Mike Moroney. Took sharp improvement out of her first-up run to make a mess of her rivals in the Mannerism at Caulfield three weeks ago and the margin certainly warranted a shot at the Group 1. She can use barrier one to sit up handy and if she turns up in the same mood then she has to be some chance. Has tended to be hit and miss, that’d be some concern.

8. Grinzinger Belle (Danny O’Brien): Started favourite and led them up before weakening into fourth behind Coeur Volante when resuming though she wasn’t beaten too far by the other two in front of her. Huge swing in the weights in her favour of 4kg and she turns up a fitter horse. She is the likely leader if she wants it. So far she looks a rung below the top mares, but that’s based pretty much on the Empire Rose at level weights while this is a handicap. Comes down to what she’s allowed to do up front.

9. Firestorm (Chris Waller): Sprinted sharply to win the Millie Fox when resuming to make it four from five fresh and three from three at Rosehill. Being generally a backmarker the barrier draw is of little consequence to her unless it’s proven that it is hard to make up ground. Likely kept on the fresher side by design given that first-up record and will be afforded her chance with the light weight. Wouldn’t shock to see her running home into the finish somewhere, she’ll have to hit a new peak to win.

10. Manaal (Michael Freedman): Had no luck at all with the barriers in her two starts this time in and it’s continued again here but that depends on what tactics are employed. She has drawn right next to the logical leader with the other speed influence also to her outside so if they elect to roll the dice she could land in a good spot. We know she’s good enough to be in the finish and there was merit in her effort in the Surround where she raced four deep without cover throughout and was beaten under four lengths. If she gets the breaks for once she’s not out of it.

11. Sounds Of Heaven (Joe Pride): Might have raced a bit fresh first-up in the Guy Walter as she sat outside a leisurely tempo and was the first under pressure when they sprinted. She wasn’t fancied there in the market. Can’t see her being in the first few this time with a stronger tempo likely so she should have the chance to improve.

Manaal (Pic: Steve Hart).

12. Elettrica (Richard & Will Freedman): Scratched from the Millie Fox on vets so that says there was an issue and it means she’s now almost two months between runs going into the Group 1. That last run was an impressive win from well off the pace at the Sunshine Coast but obviously meets a bit more quality. Ticked over well in her recent trial, likes Rosehill, but if she’s able to finish top four here it’ll be quite a training performance and effort from the horse.

13. Scarlet Oak (Chris Waller): Loomed to win first-up after sitting right on the back of the speed but went dour quite quickly as Firestorm swept past her. Fitter for that and the 1500m is much more suitable for her but the question is whether she needs a wet track to produce her best or perhaps she’s taking a bit more time to transition from three to four. Gets a nice soft draw and will appreciate some tempo but prefer her in the wet.

14. Our Gold Hope (Robert & Luke Price): Her last two runs look much better watching the replays than they read on paper and she was another victim of that slowly run Guy Walter. She was back with Olentia and had to do some weaving, ending up making her run closer to the fence, and she did a good job to finish alongside that horse in fifth. Drops 3kg and if she can get to the outside and wind up she could run into a place at odds.

15. Lazzura (SCRATCHED).

SPEED MAP: It appears Grinzinger Belle will cross and find the fence first with Marble Arch possibly the only horse drawn inside her who could make her work for it. Lady Of Camelot can follow across and you'd expect Lady Shenandoah to look to be not far from that filly having drawn one to her inside. Coeur Volante can hold the fence behind the speed and the likes of Amelia's Jewel, Manaal and Scarlet Oak likely not too far away. Olentia could also look to use her barrier to some degree.

SELECTIONS:
4 LADY SHENANDOAH
6 Lady Of Camelot
2 Olentia
1 Amelia's Jewel

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Rosehill