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By Nick Berney.

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday’s Canterbury meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for any bias/pattern.

Tricky 2YO race to start with first starters engaged and no disclosed heavy track form. 8. Perpignan is immature, but nothing has gone right in her first two career starts. She was not suited on debut at Scone, and Punter's Intelligence recorded she ran home the eighth fastest last 400m sectional of the entire meeting in 22.28 to run third. The filly travelled into the race well at Newcastle last start before having no luck when checked/blocked for most of the straight. Additionally, the subsequent winner of that race, Promitto, won the Group 2 Skyline Stakes. The step up to 1100m suits, and she gets a significant jockey change in James McDonald with a starting price edge over some of her rivals.

Dangers: 6. Willinga Beast is a first-starter for Kris Lees, who has trialled well in fast closing sectionals at Wyong. She tends to get on the wrong leg when asked for an effort but did finish off the trial in style after being bumped. The filly is bred to handle very heavy conditions and will benefit from the experience. 1. Deep Expectation had all favours last start at Kensignton but looks to get first-use of the track and has race experience. 2. Belriah has gate speed and will roll forward with a jockey change in Jason Collett.

How to play it: Perpignan WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) & Willinga Beast WIN ($3.00 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Perpignan's last start at Newcastle on February 12

Another Tricky 2YO event with first starters and minimal disclosed heavy track form. 10. Alpha One was well backed on debut at Kensington when it was $5.5-$4.8 late in betting. He had trialled well prior on a soft seven and just raced too keenly in a very-slow pace when settling in the box seat first-up. Although, drawn awkwardly, expect him to roll forward and look to lead in his own rhythm and not be dictated to. Each-way.

Dangers: 2. Spacewalk has been racing in stronger grade, and the form around him has been proven. He was restrained from a wide draw in the Silver Slipper at Rosehill and ran on fairly. The colt gets a significant barrier change, and Hugh Bowman goes back on. Some query with the glue on shoes, but he maps to have all favours. 4. Renosu is the other Godolphin colt accepted here, and he has been racing in listed grade in Melbourne. Market watch. 9. Take The Kitty, who can utilise barrier one and has been responding well when put under pressure in his trials.

How to play it: Alpha One E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.

Alpha One on debut at Kensington on February 16

1. Aircraftman has been gelded prior to his return this prep after trialling well and producing a career peak figure at Canterbury 19 days ago. He was unsuited in a moderate pace where he got too far back and began to overrace. The gelding then made a long-wide sustained run and loomed to win when running the second-fastest 400m-200m split of the entire meeting in 11.35 and continued to maintain a strong finishing speed to finish second. The three-year-old improved significantly between runs last preparation, and the combination of fitness with a step up in distance is ideal. Although drawn awkwardly, Hugh Bowman can be aggressive out of the gates with the step up to 1550m, and a repeat of his last start figure will make him hard to hold out. It’s worth noting the jockey/trainer combination of John Thompson and Hugh Bowman is striking at 19.8% with a 23% profit on turnover.

Dangers: 9. Scats Surfer Girl is rock-hard fit, gets a key jockey change in James McDonald and blinkers to go on for the first time. 5. Spitfire will roll forward, and all his peak figures have come on wet ground. 8. Poetic Drama can improve with the blinkers off and winkers on.

How to play it: Aircraftman WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Aircraftman runs second at Canterbury on February 18

7. Compassionate has been freshened since her honest fourth placing in the Magic Millions Maiden Plate (1200m). She was specked in the betting when $20-$18 and the form out of that race has been dynamite with four subsequent winners. The three-year-old filly has trialled well enough in-between runs and has multiple rating figures to win this race. She is proven on heavy ground and expect an aggressive ride from the outside draw. Each-way.

Dangers: 3. Minister has a fitness edge on the majority engaged here, and he ran well 11 days ago in a fast time race at Newcastle over 900m. The gelding improved with the blinkers on for the first time last start and the step-up in distance suits. He maps well and will run boldly. 5. Selhurst Park receives a significant barrier change and looks like the leader with all his peak performances coming on heavy ground. 6. Yagoona has trialled well enough, and he had no luck first-up last preparation. 9. Headliner has strong form-lines and has trialled ok, but some queries are on a heavy track.

How to play it: Compassionate E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Compassionates latest trial at Wyong on February 15

7. Ringarosa is coming out of time/sectional merit races all preparation. She sat wide first-up at Kembla and sprinted the fastest final 600m of the entire meeting in 33.52 when winning dominantly on a heavy track. The three-year-old filly then had no luck second-up and should’ve finished much closer before being well fancied last start at Canterbury but just got too far back in the run. She is rock-hard fit, and although up in grade/losing James McDonald, she drops 6kg in weight which will enhance her key asset in acceleration.

Dangers: 1. Ita had slight excuses last start at Canterbury 12 days ago when she was checked/blocked at a critical stage. The four-year-old mare is consistent, proven in the wet and last preparation she returned a peak figure when third-up. Some query she is looking for further now, but the heavy track may offset that. 4. Sensationalisation is now trained by Jason Deamer, who maps to get all favours and his Victorian figures line-up to most of her rivals. Market watch 6. Vittoriosa, who has figures to win and has trialled well enough.

How to play it: Ringarosa WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Ringarosa runs fourth at Canterbury on February 25

He is hard to catch 6. Badoosh but does get critical factors in his favour to produce an improved performance which can put him right in the finish. The five-year-old gelding has just been getting too far back in all three runs this preparation and continuing to run on well. He has barrier one, and from the kinder draw, the aggressive riding of Nash Rawiller can get him to settle closer and urge him to find his best effort. His peak career figures have come on heavy tracks, and he is a rock-hard fit. The trainer/jockey combination of Matthew Dunn and Nash Rawiller has a strike rate of 21.6%, with a profit on turnover of 16.9%.

Dangers: 1. Easy Campese sat handy to a very-fast tempo at Randwick and weakened in the straight. The drop back in distance is to his advantage, and regular rider Ellen Hennessy goes back on who has an outstanding record on him with six rides for three wins, two seconds and a third. The gelding can use fitness to his advantage and roll forward at a genuine speed. 5. Sword Point has had five weeks off the scene after a dominant win at Rosehill over 2000m. The three-year-old colt looks the most progressive relative to his rivals but does go up 6.5kg and has a tricky draw. 10. Azarmin was well backed before being a late scratching 12 days ago at Canterbury. She is proven on heavy tracks and a late market watch.

How to play it: Badoosh WIN ($10.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Easy Campese WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Badoosh’s last start at Randwick on February 12

7. Gracilistyla is a lightly raced improver on an upwards ratings spiral and has come back well after a solid first-up effort at Canterbury at this track/distance. He was restrained early and just got too far back in the run. The three-year-old gelding hit the line strongly and was strong past the post when running the fourth-fastest last 200m sectional of the entire meeting in 11.64. With a long run to the first turn out of the 1250m chute, Hugh Bowman can roll forward and find a spot with a more genuine tempo anticipated. Additionally, he is proven on wet-ground and will be fitter.

Dangers: 10. Publicist went out a solid winner last preparation when running fast time at Warwick Farm, albeit having first-use of the track. He has trialled well enough over 1200m without blinkers and will roll forward with the blinkers applied for race day. 2. Diamil is an Irish import having his Australian debut. In October last year, he was an impressive winner at Goodwood and his overseas figures line-up relative to his opposition. The four-year-old has trialled in a fast time heat and is a market watch. 4. Juventus is racing well in this grade and has a fitness edge. 11. Dark Rebel is a knockout chance who excels on heavy tracks.

How to play it: Gracilistyla WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Gracilistyla runs second at Canterbury on February 18

Forgive 5. Turnstyle’s first-up run at Randwick in stronger grade 11 days ago. She pulled up lame after racing outside the leader and weakening in the final stages. She can bounce back with multiple heavy track rating figures that line up, and her career peak performance came second-up last preparation. Rachel King can press forward with an aggressive ride from a middle draw, and the five-year-old represents value.

Dangers: 8. Ruby Kisses won at this track/distance 12 days ago on a heavy track and ran fast time. More speed is drawn around her in this event, but she is rock-hard fit and will be thereabouts. 10. Tonneofgrit and 11. Debari are both first-up but are proven on rain-affected going.

How to play it: Turnstyle E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

Turnstyle first-up at Randwick on February 26

Best Bet: Race 3 # 1 – Aircraftman.

Next Best: Race 7 # 7 - Gracilistyla.

Best Value: Race 6 # 1 - Easy Campese & # 6 - Badoosh.

All the fields, form and replays for Thursday’s Canterbury meeting