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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $750,000 Toyota Forklifts Canterbury Stakes (1300m) at Randwick on Saturday.

1. Ceolwulf (Joe Pride): It’d be tough to dispute his claim as the best horse in the race but he’s far from the best suited given he was being trained for a mile second-up and instead has to deal with 1300m. That likely takes his excellent second-up record out of play. Made a nice return in the Apollo finishing on Via Sistina’s shoulder and we were all looking forward to the rematch at the 1600m. It’s not to be. Barrier one doesn’t help him, or perhaps it might mean he can just land in the second half rather than dragging back. All connections would likely be happy with him charging into a place or onto the heels of the top three and that’d be a solid set up for the rest of the autumn, though a bit of rain may give him a sneaky chance.

Ceolwulf (Bradley Photos)

2. Here To Shock (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Lindsay Park can certainly churn out these durable geldings that hold their form for long periods and here’s another example. His runs have been spaced through the season with wins in the Cameron and the Alan Brown in the spring, he had a miss in the Big Dance but cardiac arrhythmia forgives that, and has had two strong on speed wins in the Supernova and a Group 1 sprint in New Zealand. In a race not stacked with speed on paper he’s sure to get a nice run up there from that favourable gate and give a sight. This is a decent class test for him looking through the field, that’d be the major query. Probably wouldn’t want a heavy track at this level.

3. Airman (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Hit and miss sprinter who could sprint with them in the Expressway despite having a reasonable run behind a slow pace. Only beaten 1-3/4 there but also only beat one home. He found his best to score an upset win in the Premiere in the spring but tends to struggle against the real topliners. He’ll be fitter and drawn to get his chance but a win here would be another upset.

4. Militarize (Chris Waller): Comeback kid now a gelding and he’s shaping up pretty well with his couple of trials and exhibition gallop leading into his return. When we last saw him he chased Fangirl home first-up and was Group 1 placed in the Randwick Guineas, George Ryder and Doncaster. He’ll obviously improve on whatever he does in this race but he has been given a smooth preparation and it’s not like he’s coming off an injury. No surprise to see him strong at the finish and, particularly if there’s been rain around, certainly no surprise if he happened to win.

5. Pericles (James Cummings): Generally a consistent performer who might just lack the class at weight-for-age level over this sort of trip. Genuine excuses for his first-up failure, where he had EIPH, so that explains him dropping off after a nice run in the Futurity. Comes back 100m, draws wide, so is going to need something to seriously go his way to be beating some of these. Yet to finish worse than second in five second-up runs, that’s the positive for him but almost the only one. Next time, over further.

6. Royal Patronage (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Import who was able to beat Amelia’s Jewel first-up last preparation over 1400m then graduated to weight-for-age and measured up well with some solid efforts at a mile behind the likes of Fangirl and Ceolwulf. He is a natural on pacer drawn wide so expect he’ll look to get across onto the speed and if he gets comfortable he could give a good sight. If he’s not able to find a spot he might find it a bit tougher. Won’t be selling him short.

7. Celestial Legend (Les Bridge): He’s a real query runner, this time last year he was the new star on the block with his Randwick Guineas and Doncaster wins but went missing in the spring with three fair unplaced efforts. He’s trialling like a horse looking for a mile already, and perhaps further, as he was only getting warmed up at the finish of his 1200m trial. He could find this slick fresh but expect that if he is back in business for the autumn he’ll be storming home. And if we happen to be on a wet track he should be assessed a bit differently, and as a stronger chance.

8. Encap (Gary Portelli): Looked hard to beat in the Liverpool City Cup last week but had to be scratched with a minor issue. So he takes on a much tougher task over the same track and distance. There is a Group 1 in this horse if he gets the right race but this one probably isn’t it. He usually runs well fresh and did that last time in before winning the Theo Marks second-up. He’s drawn to get a nice passage and tends to do his best when held up for a late burst. Will improve on what he does here and wait until he gets back to a handicap.

9. Sunshine In Paris (Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald): Enjoyed an outstanding spring that started with a win against the mares and ended with a weight-for-age Group 1 sprint win. Between them she was gallant in the TAB Everest and gave Bella Nipotina too much start in the Russell Balding. Her two trials have been excellent, chasing home Private Harry in the latest over 1000m, and she looked in good order galloping last weekend. A soft track wouldn’t harm her chances, and may offset the outside gate, but would want to risk her fresh on heavy if it got that far.

Sunshine In Paris (Pic: Grant Guy).

10. Magic Time (Grahame Begg): Exploded off a slow tempo and pushed into the clear to win with some authority in the Expressway first-up and that sets her up well bringing some fitness into the Group 1. That may be vital if we’re on a wet track, which she very much appreciates. She has a great Randwick record that includes a Group 1 All Aged win last year on a heavy track. There are plenty of pluses that come with her, she’s versatile from a racing pattern perspective and handles all ground. If she improves into this second-up run, which she often does, it’s ominous.

11. Stefi Magnetica (Bjorn Baker): Raced without luck through much of the spring, most notably in the Golden Eagle, but what the spring did show is that she’d progressed from her Stradbroke win with just the 50kg to the big leagues. Just missed fresh in the spring at 1100m and as she has to go another 200m this time around she’s had a solid grounding with some nice trial efforts. Middle draw is handy as she’s usually a backmarker, or at least midfield, in her races and a bit of sting out wouldn’t hurt her chances. If she’s come on again she’s a big chance.

12. Switzerland (Chris Waller): Plenty at stake for this Group 1 winning colt to make the transition to weight-for-age. Fared best of the three-year-olds when he resumed in the Lightning at Flemington, not sure whether the 1000m was just too sharp for him or whether the rain on the day hampered him. Either way it was a bit disappointing for a $2.45 favourite. Jumps to 1300m, he hasn’t been beyond 1200m yet, draws wide and could strike another wet track. He is unbeaten at Randwick in three attempts and nothing wrong with his work last week. The JMac factor will keep him in the market and he’s a chance, but just a chance.

SPEED MAP: The lead is probably Here To Shock’s if he wants it and then there are decisions to be made. Airman and Magic Time have the ability to be right there. Royal Patronage and Pericles are noted on pacers over a bit more ground but they’ve drawn wide and may be compelled to push forward. Switzerland could go forward or back. Track condition and any pattern might dictate this map.

SELECTIONS:
10 MAGIC TIME
11 Stefi Magnetica
4 Militarize
1 Ceolwulf

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Randwick