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Brad Gray's Tips For TAB Golden Slipper Day (Rosehill Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

9. It’s A Wonder has been freshened since just missing in an identical Midway a month ago as a well-backed $4.80 chance. It was over the Rosehill 1500m. She also went into that four weeks between runs so there is a pattern there. The mare doesn’t win out of turn due to her get-back style of racing with two wins from 13 starts but she’ll knock off one of these sooner rather than later. Just needs to conserve her energy in the middle stages. Kerrin McEvoy has ridden her at her past two starts and he sticks. She wanted to overdo things a touch last time yet still charged late to run Rush Attack to a narrow margin. That’s a form line that has since been franked in Midway company. It’s A Wonder draws barrier 2 to settle midfield again.

Dangers: 10. Lugarno resumed a dominant winner at Wyong having controlled the race from in front. There is more pressure here but he’ll make his own luck once more. The step out to 1500m looks perfect. Found his best form at the backend of last campaign against some handy three-year-olds. Have to admire the consistency of 4. Rush Attack. The knock is the awkward gate and that he loses Zac Lloyd. 8. Hinchinjive hasn’t been done any favours by wide draws either but should be among the strongest late.

How To Play It: It’s A Wonder WIN

Race 2 - 1:05PM BISLEY WORKWEAR EPONA STAKES (1900 METRES)

5. Sounds Of Heaven only beat one runner home in the G1 Coolmore Classic last Saturday but the run wasn’t as bad as it reads on paper. It was a fast race and once she became detached from the field she appeared to lose interest. She tacked on late to run through the line. The set up is what appeals as it mirrors what she did first and second up last campaign before winning third up on the back up. In fact, her two runs prior to that win are near identical. The imported mare was only tried once beyond the mile when trained overseas, which was in Group One company in the US at Keenland. Jamie Melham has been booked for Saturday and although she often isn’t the best into stride, the barrier should see her settle in the first dozen. That looks significant as it doesn’t look a high pressure race.

Dangers: Not sure what to make of the Aspiration won by 3. Little Baia, who was coming off BM72 wins at Canterbury. 7. Mare Of Mt Buller was the best of the beaten brigade, coming from last in a slowly run race. She won her first three starts and hasn’t added to that since. 1. Hinged didn’t get a lot of room in the straight there and probably needs this trip to reproduce her best nowadays. 8. It’s A Knockout still has upside but had her chance behind Little Baia. Third up in her first campaign was a peak performance. The grey 9. Be Real found the mile too sharp but the lack of speed and her gate are against here. 14. Brigidine Gal was arguably exposed a touch too early in the Kembla Grange Classic which saw her picked off on the line. It was a bunched finish and she is untried at the trip but suspect she’ll measure up against the older mares. Has a turn of foot.

How To Play It: Sounds Of Heaven WIN

Race 3 - 1:40PM ASAHI SUPER DRY N E MANION CUP (2400 METRES)

1. Athabascan looks to have returned as well as ever, if not better. The six-year-old will be peaking come the Sydney Cup, which he ran second in last year behind Circle Of Fire, but can win this on the way through. He powered to the line first up in the Parramatta Cup over 1900m before it was hard to miss his luckless eighth over 2000m last start. All honours to the winner Alalcance but the way he travelled to the 300m mark, it would have been very interesting had he seen daylight. Instead he went to the line under a hold. He did start $13 but only now he gets out to a more suitable 2400m and draws to get a similar midfield run. He won’t want to spot Alalcance too big of a head start. The O’Shea and Charlton-trained stayer is well exposed and pays the penalty for past performances at the weights but that hasn’t stopped him in the past.

Dangers: 6. Alalcance will do her thing out in front again. 4. Our Anchorage looks the only other noted go forward horse so she finds the right race to go back-to-back. Rises 2kg from that win. Tim Clark stays aboard and if he can run the race to suit again, she’ll look the winner. Jumped $2.80 last start so the early price is probably justified. The barrier doesn’t help 11. Birdman but he looks ready now third up. He gave King’s Valley 6kg second up and after looming, peaked on his run. Drops 6.5kg racing in Group company. His two wins overseas were over 2400m and 2600m so he’ll relish the trip too. 7. Valiant King is another Chris Waller-trained stayer that looks to be trending the right way. He didn’t get a clear passage himself behind Alalcance. Draws wide. 10. Strathtay had a hard luck story from the Canberra Cup. Going better than the form suggests.

How To Play It: Athabascan WIN

Race 4 - 2:15PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200 METRES)

3. Autumn Glow was labelled the most promising filly in the country before a setback curtailed her spring when an odds on favourite ahead of the Flight Stakes. That was on the back of three straight wins to launch her career. She beat the boys on debut and then won the Up And Coming at her second start. The daughter of The Autumn Sun didn’t make the Surround Stakes, recovering from bone chip surgery, so Chris Waller elected to keep her for the back half of the Sydney autumn carnival. The 1200m is a little query she’ll need to answer but she has been dynamic over 1300m already and looks to be targeting an Arrowfield Stakes after Saturday so will have bene kept fresh for sprinting targets. Has cruised to the line in three trials. Draws well. James McDonald rides.

Dangers: 2. Enriched dashed home in a slowly run Fireball Stakes last start, showing a brilliant turn of foot. The shape of the race allowed for it, but he clocked the fastest last 200m split of the meeting, taking good improvement from his third in BM78 company first up. First and second from that race won their subsequent starts. 6. Ikasara found 1100m a touch too sharp in the Heritage Stakes first up last time in when third to Perspiration and Gatsby’s. Like him returning over 1200m on the back of three trials. 11. Let’sfacethemusic draws to be giving away a head start but he bumped into another smart unbeaten filly in Mystic Reign last start down the Flemington straight. Include 4. Fearless in wider exotics. Has trialled well and bled in the Golden Rose.

How To Play It: Autumn Glow WIN

Race 5 - 2:50PM RANVET STAKES (2000 METRES)

6. Via Sistina is building perfectly into her autumn and only now gets out to her best distance. The seven-year-old has had five runs over 2000m in Australia for Chris Waller, winning four of them. The defeat was when second to Pride Of Jenni in last year’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Last start in the Verry Elleegant she needed every bit of the mile to beat Fangirl and Lindermann but was pulling away on the line. It’s hard to make a case for any of the rivals that she beat home three weeks ago to turn the tables, which leaves the two internationals as the wildcards. Every horse has a price and that’s the knock on Via Sistina. Bookies are taking no risks early, posting $1.40. Wouldn’t go charging into those short odds at this stage. Hard to tip against her though.

Dangers: 2. Fawkner Park clocked a near identical closing split to Via Sistina when first up over the mile. That gives the gelding a great platform for his preparation. He has a great record over 2000m (8:5-0-1), loves Rosehill (6:3-1-0) and does his best racing on firm tracks. The speed should be genuine with American mare 7. Full Count Felicia running along out in front. Nash Rawiller jumping off Lindermann to ride her is intriguing. The way she won at Woodbine back in September was like Pride Of Jenni, racing to a twenty length lead. 3. Lindermann backs up after going down as a $1.75 favourite in the Sky High last Saturday. Hasn’t raced on a seven day turnaround before. 4. Al Mubhir doesn’t have the class of Dubai Honour or Addeybb but we know to respect all William Haggas runners.

How To Play It: Via Sistina WIN, Via Sistina/Fawkner Park QUINELLA

Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000 METRES)

11. Aeliana is racing like she wants 2000m. She is sired by Castelvecchio. It’s no easy task to win this race as a filly, the latest winner back in 1989 (Riverina Charm) but Montefilia, Jameka and Silent Achiever have all placed since then. Aeliana hasn’t had the acceleration to match it with Broadsiding and Swiftfalcon in the Hobartville or Randwick Guineas over 1400m and 1600m but her work through the line was encouraging. It wasn’t as if she started out of the market on either occasion. Last start she jumped $6. Chris Waller always had the Vinery Stakes pencilled in for Aeliana but obviously sees an opportunity here to win another Group One without having to clash with gun filly Treasurethe Moment. She maps well from barrier 1 and there’s enough in the early price to lean her way.

Dangers: It would be in the best interests of 2. Goldrush Guru to make this a test of stamina. If there are any chinks late at the end of 2000m in the Randwick Guineas trifecta, he’ll find them out. He has improved each run back and clocked the fastest last 200m in the Australian Guineas when third. Jamie Melhan comes to Rosehill to stay aboard the Victorian Derby winner. 1. Broadsiding didn’t look to have any excuses last start. Linebacker had an extra run under his belt and that perhaps was the difference. Draws awkwardly. The class runner but not convinced he deserves to be as dominant a favourite as he is in early betting. 3. Swiftfalcon has to tick off the 2000m box but there’s been a lot to like about his close in two runs back. Kiwi 4. Checkmate has upside out to 2000m for the first time.

How To Play It: Aeliana WIN

Race 7 - 4:00PM THE AGENCY GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500 METRES)

1. Ceolwulf’s fifth in the Canterbury Stakes last start was much better than it looked to the eye. He was only marginally outside the quickest closing splits in the race, which belonged to Sunshine In Paris. He ran as well as he could given the set up. Remember, he missed the Verry Elleegant with a minor setback which saw the five-year-old front up a week later back to 1300m instead of tackling the mile. The autumn gets back on track now out to 1500m third up. The four-year-old proved himself to be the best miler in the country over the spring, winning the Epsom and then the King Charles at weight for age where he brushed straight past 10. Fangirl. Albeit she was well below her usual standards there. Should settle in front of Fangirl on Saturday from their respective draws.

Dangers: 3. Royal Patronage maps to get complete control. He won the Canterbury Stakes well, having settled outside of the leader. Looks well set up to build off that. 5. Gringotts is the only other speed in the race and will sit to his outside but is unlikely to eye ball him. Gave Ceolwulf 2kg when two lengths away in the Epsom. Fangirl looks to have come back as well as ever. Loves dry ground. How the Rosehill track is playing will be critical to her chances. The draw will see her settle in the second half and it looks a slowly run race. Gringotts has to be respected due to his racing style. This is his biggest test to date but he savaged the line with 61kg first up behind Iowna Merc. The saddle slipped on 11. Stefi Magnetica first up, she pulled up lame and raced wide. Forget that. 2. Tom Kitten is flying but he too has the map against. 4. Buckaroo can show up fresh.

How To Play It: Ceolwulf WIN

Race 8 - 4:35PM TAB GOLDEN SLIPPER [GROUP 1] (1200 METRES)

In such an even Golden Slipper 8. Wodeton has a lot in his favour. Chris Waller trains, James McDonald rides and he draws soft. Barrier 2 looks ideal given that the son of Wootton Bassett can race a touch keen in the middle stages. He of course made a huge statement on debut winning at Rosehill, albeit on a wet track, and although he hasn’t been able to replicate that since, Waller applies the winkers and it’s always been the plan have him cherry ripe fourth up for his grand final. Wodeton had excuses in the Silver Slipper when wide the trip and being a month between runs. Last start in the Todman Stakes he pulled his way into a four wide running line at the top of the straight and just felt the pinch the last 50m after looking the winner. Have to respect that he has jumped $1.60, $2.20 and $2 in his three career starts.

Dangers: 13. Tempted can settle closer from barrier 1. In her last three starts she has given away big heads starts but has drawn no closer than barrier 9. She was set up by a fast lead speed in the Reisling but like that she has a fast run 1200m under her belt. There will be no weakness in her late. Was luckless in a Blue Diamond when a $7.50 chance. 7. Skyhook will be looking to replicate Shinzo from two years ago who won the Pago Pago and backed up to win the Slipper. Had to be impressed by the dominance of his win last Saturday, despite getting control from in front. Maps perfectly. 16. Marhoona gave away race experience, fitness and positioning when a narrow second to Tempted in the Reisling. She rode a fast speed yet stuck on gamely and is open to further improvement. Maps well too. 10. Quietly Arrogant best knockout hope.

How To Play It: Wodeton WIN

Race 9 - 5:15PM KIA ORA GALAXY (1100 METRES)

13. Private Harry looks well found stepping into Group One company for the first time but the setup looks perfect. It appears to have all fallen into place for the unbeaten three-year-old. The barrier is ideal, drawn to the immediate outside of likely leader Front Page. That should give Ash Morgan, who has ridden Private Harry in all four starts, to stalk the speed. It’s been a rapid rise for the Nathan Doyle-trained sprinter but his last start performance at the Sunshine Coast announced him as a potential top liner. Potential still being the key word. However, he broke the track record, won by a space. The runners that ran second, third and fifth in Lady Of Camelot, Arabian Summer and El Morzillo, have all franked the form line. Carries 53kg.

Dangers: 8. Front Page is an exceptional sprinter fresh. His record first up (10:5-2-1) speaks for itself. He tackled this race 12 months ago with just half a kilo less and was beaten narrowly by Zapateo and Sunshine In Paris. Loves bone dry tracks and he’ll get that on Saturday. 11. Briasa’s barrier draw sees his winning chances plummet. He’d be on top had he drawn a middle gate. Instead he faces the prospect of settling last over the Rosehill 1100m. Trialled like a rocket in very fast time. Will need a special ride from Tyler Schiller. James Cummings rolls the dice with hulking filly 14. Commemorative here. Dangerous with 51kg. Likes room to quicken so barrier 2 is tricky. 5. Jedibeel returned with a dominant win but 3. I Am Me can turn the tables without surprising.

How To Play It: Private Harry WIN

Race 10 - 5:55PM TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)

11. Wooloowin will get last look at these. The Nathan Doyle-trained mare has won four of her seven starts and produced a career best performance at the Sunshine Coast before spelling. She put 2.5 lengths on Infatuation showing a brilliant turn of foot. That’s encouraging as far as what lies ahead for the lightly-raced four-year-old. Jason Collett had his first ride on the mare on that occasion and understandably was keen to stick with her upon her return. She drops to 54kg and after Commemorative was scratched to run in the Galaxy, it’s a wide open mares race. The daughter of Capitalist has had one trial at Rosehill back in mid-February, cruising to the line in a slick heat run in the fastest time of the morning.

Dangers: 7. Outback Miss boasts the obvious form line of the Winona Girl. The question heading into that race was the 1200m yet she answered that. She was ridden a touch more conservatively but responded well, running through the line behind Commemorative. Respect that 5. Shezanalister jumped a heavily backed $5 second favourite in that same race. She pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia. Horses often bounce back from that at their subsequent start. Was only beaten half a length at Rosehill two starts ago by Time To Boogie, despite her record suggesting she prefers Randwick. 3. Coco Jamboo’s two first up runs have been her best in Australia for Peter Snowden. Last time in she didn’t get a lot of luck fresh behind Olentia in a Nivision. Like the way she has trialled on two occasions.

How To Play It: Wooloowin WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Golden Slipper day at Rosehill

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