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Brad Gray's Tips For TAB Everest Day (Randwick Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:30PM THE STAR ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)

The further the better for 2. Alegron. It was only back in June that he won the Brisbane Cup over two miles. Trainer Bjorn Baker has always had this race in mind as a lead in to the Melbourne Cup. The six-year-old worked home well in the Kingston Town two starts ago, as many of his rivals also did, but he was eight weeks between runs there. He then fronted up in the Metrop last start where he had no luck in the straight. The son of Teofilo was travelling well at the time, despite being sent around $41, but was checked and blocked several times. Once he did see daylight he ran through the line. He’ll have to turn the tables on Trust In You and Etna Rosso from last start but he had the right grounding to do that now with two runs under his belt. Well found but hard to beat.

Dangers: Kiwi 5. Trust In You has been great through the same two lead ups, the Kingston Town, where his closing splits were deceptively fast with his last 600m second to only Ceolwulf on the clock, and The Metrop where he was nailed in a photo for third by Unusual Legacy. 3. Athabascan was perhaps ridden too close in the Metrop. He was disappointing but he is better than that. Fourth up over the autumn he ran second to Circle Of Fire in the Sydney Cup as a $6 chance. Must respect that 6. Etna Rosso jumped the shortest price in the Metrop of his rivals here and he worked home okay from well back in the field. Weight wise he isn’t as well placed this Saturday. 8. Waltham at least brings a different form line.

How To Play It: Alegron WIN

Race 2 - 1:05PM BIG DANCE WILD CARD (1600 METRES)

1. Berkshire Shadow has the best depth of form coming through the G1 Epsom two weeks ago. He settled worse than midfield before working to the line to be beaten four lengths. It may have been the run of a horse looking for a touch further now but he looks well placed in this company after the three kilo claim of Zac Wadick. The wide draw doesn’t change much as he doesn’t have any early speed and with High Dandy and Too Much Caviar looking horns up front, it should be a truly run mile. Prior to the Epsom, Berkshire Shadow covered ground in the Cameron when two lengths off Here To Shock, who has won again since, while first up he had no luck behind Ceolwulf in a deep BM100 at Rosehill. Hasn’t won for 79 weeks but won’t get a better chance to break through.

Dangers: 9. Too Much Caviar can float in and out of form which makes him a risky proposition when skinny odds, as punters found out in the Bathurst Cup last start when a beaten $1.80 favourite. He was that price on the back of a brave Rosehill win where he absorbed pressure throughout. Has been freshened since. Drops 10kg. 8. High Dandy needs to get the start right from barrier 2. If he is crossed early it’s game over. Was nailed by a $101 pop in the Dubbo Cup last start in fast time. If he finds a rhythm, he’ll be hard to get past. 2. Chorlton Lane got the back of Berkshire Shadow in the Cameron but never looked the winner. Strong SP profile but he hasn’t been the punters pal lately. 3. Ducasse stays under notice due to the prospect of a wet track. He’ll want the Friday rain to hit Randwick.

How To Play It: Berkshire Shadow WIN

Race 3 - 1:40PM BISLEY WORKWEAR REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400 METRES)

2. Dominetta won a midweek maiden prior to tackling this Group Three race but so did last year’s winner Arctic Glamour. Dominetta’s first up win wasn’t quiet as impressive on the clock but it was still strong. After spearing out to lead from barrier 1, the daughter of Zoustar did manage to control the middle stages but there was a lot to like about the way she ran through the line to win decisively. Being a half-sister to four time Group One winner Hartnell, she should relish the step out to 1400m now. Training dup Waterhouse and Bott have freshened her up since then, electing to trial at Randwick to keep her ticking over, where she edged past Rocketing By. Drawn wide but she has the speed to offset that. Surprised she isn’t shorter in betting.

Dangers: 6. Titanium Miss is a daughter of All Too Hard and a half sister to stablemates Sebrenco and Miss Redoble (now retired), which should see her have no problem out to 1400m. In fact, she can elevate off her recent form out in trip. Makes her own luck and finds Blake Shinn. 8. Concordia Wind looks a big price despite the obvious knock which is where she gets to from the draw. She ran in a hot Warwick Farm maiden first up where Private Life, Lilac and Declichy Boulevard filled the trifecta. Titanium Miss ran fourth. Concordia Wind then split Spirit Of Wealth and Deconstruction, subsequently third in the Tapp Craig. 1. Wings Of Desire has also drawn awkwardly but wasn’t beaten far in Group Two company at Flemington last start.

How To Play It: Dominetta WIN

Race 4 - 2:15PM JAMES SQUIRE ANGST STAKES (1600 METRES)

Taking a punt on 3. Sounds Of Heaven showing up out to the mile for the first time in Australia. She’s a talented mare and arrived in Australia a Group One placegetter having run third in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot. Saw enough from her first up in the Golden Pendant first up to suggest that she has returned well. The daughter of Kingman was left flatfooted in a slowly run 1400m before coming again through the line. Her last 200m was the equal of any other mare in the race. Should be able to hold a spot from the draw. Looking at her UK replays, she won’t want to be buried away, instead being allowed to build into the race. Each way.

Dangers: The best of 5. Hinged would win this race. Like most things when it comes to assessing form, it’s never as simple as that though. She comes off the poorest run she has produced in some time, racing flat in the 7 Stakes without an obvious excuse. And she has drawn awkwardly. And hasn’t won for 137 weeks. On the flip side, two starts ago she was nosed out by Buckaroo over the mile and is the best placed horse at Randwick on Saturday under the set weights plus penalties conditions. 1. Lekvarte has a great Randwick record (5:3-0-1) and second up out to the mile is perfect. Maps to be last but she was great first up, also coming through the Golden Pendant. 2. Good Banter did enough first up behind Willaidow and the form through that race has stood up since.

How To Play It: Sounds Of Heaven EACH WAY

Race 5 - 2:50PM THE KOSCIUSZKO (1200 METRES)

3. Front Page’s rivals are relying on him underperforming. In winning the past two Kosciuszkos he has run to a level that none of his rivals can match. The eight-year-old smashed the clock when winning this race last year, running faster time than the Sydney Stakes and doing it at both ends. He wasn’t as explosive the year prior but that was on a Soft 7, still proving to be too classy. Over the autumn he was five lengths off Imperatriz at Group One level before being collared in the shadows of the post in the G1 Galaxy. He was 0.3L away from being ineligible for the race such is his quality. The drier the track the shorter his price is entitled to be. His only recent failure was on a heavy track but we won’t get that come Saturday.

Dangers: 2. Far Too Easy is the opposite. He wants the rain. It’d bring Front Page back a peg and give him the chance to turn the tables. He’s had to settle for second and third at the past two runnings. He draws to settle closer from barrier 1. 5. Boom Torque got on speed favours when winning at Doomben two starts ago but ran fast time home. He then measured up in the Theo Marks when third to Encap. That was five weeks ago now. Has trialled well since. Maps well, finds Nash Rawiller. 7. Cavalier Charles has run fourth in the past two Kosciuszkos at $31 and $41. That proven track record on the stage, in a high-pressure race, shouldn’t be overlooked. 1. Bandi’s Boy has been in three Everest lead ups so be forgiving of his finishing positions.

How To Play It: Front Page WIN

Race 6 - 3:25PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS SYDNEY STAKES (1200 METRES)

3. Southport Tycoon may have been flattered by the inch perfect ride from Mark Zahra to win the Manikato Stakes last start but he savaged the line when clear. That coincided with the blinkers going back on second up. He was great first up chasing Joliestar but produced a career best when gunning down three-year-old Growing Empire, who lines up one of the favourites in the TAB Everest on the back of that run. Zahra maintains his association with the four-year-old on Saturday and should settle down midfield from the soft draw. This promises to be a high pressure 1200m race which will suit Southport Tycoon. Just needs the breaks to fall his way in the straight but should get his chance to run down the leaders given the likely shape.

Dangers: 1. Overpass has been specifically targeted at this meeting first up given how effective he is first up. His trials suggest that he is going as well as ever. Typically a very consistent horse and if he runs to his level, he’ll be fighting out the finish again. 4. Airman improved sharply on his recent form to win the Premiere Stakes two weeks ago. His challenge is to hold it now but he ran second in this race last year, splitting I Am Me and Bella Nipotina, and maps to get the right run. 6. Mazu also comes through the Premiere, beaten in a photo by Airman. He too is very genuine. The map is a touch tricky with speed drawn underneath him. Respect the mares 16. Lady Laguna and 17. Climbing Star.

How To Play It: Southport Tycoon WIN

Race 7 - 4:15PM THE TAB EVEREST (1200 METRES)

The three-year-olds get their chance to dominate this year’s TAB Everest, led by 10. Traffic Warden. There isn’t a standout older sprinter. Love the set up for the Godolphin colt, back from 1400m in the Golden Rose with three weeks between runs. It’s an identical preparation to that of Yes Yes Yes. That crop of young sprinters was exceptional but this year’s Everest doesn’t look to have the same level of depth as the 2019 running. The cherry on top for Traffic Warden is the map. He should get a lovely trailing run in behind the speed. Imagine Jamie Kah looks to stay to the outside of I Am Me drawn in barrier 1 to his inside, waiting for Growing Empire and Storm Boy to provide the cover. No excuses from there.

Dangers: 9. Growing Empire shot clear like the winner of the Manikato three weeks ago only for Southport Tycoon to run him down in the final stride. He’s still learning on the job just six starts into his career which is the niggle but he is also still improving. The barrier doesn’t do 4. Bella Nipotina any favours but there is no querying how well she is going, unlike few others here. She has sprinted home in very quick closing splits in her two runs back. Any further rain on Friday would be a huge bonus as it might also bring the middle of the Randwick track into play. 11. Storm Boy’s race will be won or lost in the first 200m but expect him to give a bold sight if allowed to run along. 3. Private Eye the best roughie. Found 8. Joliestar impossible to confidently assess so have to risk her at the price. May come to regret that.

How To Play It: Traffic Warden WIN

Race 8 - 4:50PM SILVER EAGLE (1300 METRES)

1. Veight didn’t show much first up in the Manikato Stakes first up but he is better than that. Want to give him the chance to bounce back. The barrier doesn’t do him any favours but he has got early speed so we’ll leave that in the hands of James McDonald. With Bases Loaded drawn to his inside, perhaps he gets a free trail across to settle handy. In the Manikato he was shuffled back in the early stages and never got into the race. His three-year-old form over the autumn was exceptional. Second up he was beaten a length by Mr Brightside and Pride Of Jenni. He then ran second in the Australian Guineas before winning the George Ryder. That’s top shelf weight for age form. Have to take him on trust but willing to do just that.

Dangers: 11. Kimochi also comes through the Manikato and was brave sticking on for fourth despite covering ground. She refused to lay down, fighting right to the line. She’s all heart. 8. Port Lockroy meets 4. Ostraka and 5. Moravia significantly worse off at the weights (5kg and 4.5kg) but he was only first up two weeks ago and you had to be impressed by the way he attacked the line to be narrowly beaten. Better suited out to 1400m. 3. Xidaki has won three of his past five and he is still improving. Just the one trial but he maps to do no early week. Good roughie. Bases Loaded worked hard early to get outside the lead at Rosehill and felt the pinch late. Drops back to 1300m which probably isn’t ideal.

How To Play It: Veight WIN

Race 9 - 5:35PM KING CHARLES III STAKES (1600 METRES)

9. Pride Of Jenni returns to Randwick for the first time since her Queen Elizabeth Stakes demolition job. She struck that race fourth up, as she does the King Charles on Saturday. The seven-year-old has improved with every run this time back, coming into this a last start winner of the Feehan where she beat Mr. Brightside and subsequent winners Antino (Toorak) and Attrition (Hill Stakes). She should go forward again at this point in her campaign. A scary prospect for her rivals who’ll have to chase her down. Many have tried and many have failed. It's near impossible to counter her racing style. Just put yourself in a position to be close enough to take advantage if Pride Of Jenni missteps late. Easier said than done.

Dangers: 10. Fangirl produced a career best performance to win this race 12 months ago. Chris Waller has mirrored the preparation exactly. Fangirl has only met Jenni once before in the Champions Mile last year. It didn’t end well for Fangirl but she had perhaps come to the end of a busy autumn. 6. Ceolwulf has to prove himself at WFA now but he looks sure to make the transition without too much trouble. Was an arrogant winner of the Epsom and there is still more to come. 2. My Oberon carried the top weight in the Epsom and boxed on well after covering ground from a wide draw. He ran third in this race behind Fangirl last year. The quick back up could prove a masterstroke with 1. Pericles with how this race will be run, and gets blinkers first time, while 11. Zougotcha has been too quickly forgotten.

How To Play it: Pride Of Jenni WIN

Race 10 - 6:10PM WORLD POOL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

6. Willaidow was brilliant winning over 1400m at Rosehill last start. James McDonald had the six-year-old rolling along out in front, in a lovely rhythm and he was able to quicken off that lead speed. His last 200m was the quickest in the race hence the increasing margin on the line. He relished getting out beyond 1200m for the first time this campaign. It was the win of a horse better than benchmark company. He carries an extra 3kg in the same grade but a repeat performance will see him win this too. Where he has drawn he shouldn’t have too much trouble crossing to lead. There’ll likely be pressure coming across from wider draws but if they attempt to cross it’d be to their own detriment. The early price looks fair.

Dangers: 3. Ruby Flyer has seven lengths to turnaround on Willaidow so he’ll need a few things to fall into place but liked the way he closed off late. Can settle closer on Saturday. The form through the race has already been franked a number of times since. 4. Estadio Mestalla caught the eye late in a slowly run race behind Ostraka first up. He was horribly suited given the shape and it being 1200m. This is a better set up out to 1400m. 19. Iron Man’s form lines tie in with Willaidow of course while 1. Diamond Diesel can improve second up.

How To Play It: Willaidow WIN

All the fields, form and replays for TAB Everest Day at Royal Randwick

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