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By Brad Gray

Trusting Canberra Class 1 form in this week’s Midway with 17. Hooligan Tommy! It was the best performance of this four-year-old’s career to date. He travelled sweetly in the run and put more than four lengths on his rivals late. He ran much faster time than the BM75 later at the meeting. The query is whether he can repeat that performance but John Sargent steps the son of Ocean Park out to 1800m now fifth up and he drops 6.5kg after the claim of Molly Bourke. The stable thought enough of him to run him in the ATC Derby despite still being a maiden at the time. Hooligan Tommy is chasing three straight wins and if holds his last start form, he’s a big player despite the rise in grade.

Dangers: 11. Flying Bandit comes through the El Castello Midway from two weeks ago. Plenty do here. It’s a hard race to unpack with confidence as you can make cases for most runners. Flying Bandit still has upside. That was only his fifth career start and he strikes this third up. He can’t draw a gate though. 2. Humanity produced an eye catching seventh in that same race. That was much better than what the import produced in his first two Australian runs before spelling. He has only had eight starts himself. 8. State Of America made some late headway in that Midway too. His stablemate 5. Agita rates a mention while the barrier does 14. Kervette no favours either.

How To Play It: Hooligan Tommy WIN

7. Raging Force ran home in fast time to win his Kensington trial. The overall time was middle of the road for the morning but his late strength was the takeaway. The son of Cosmic Force did have the benefit of finding the rail, which always helps with inexperienced two-year-olds but he flattened out well through the line. Peter Snowden trains and Kerrin McEvoy sticks with the colt having ridden him in the trial. Going back through recent history of the Breeders’ Plate, it’s not often the fast jump and run type that prevails. Raging Force maps to be in the second half given his draw but it’ll be truly run with unraced youngsters running on fear throughout. Expecting him to still get his chance late.

Dangers: 10. Tuscany looked push button when winning his trial. It was the fastest overall time for the colts. The son of Zoustar showed good early speed but once a few of his rivals kicked up, James McDonald restrained him to camp midfield. Tuscany didn’t fight that. He relaxed and let down with a turn of foot. McDonald stays aboard. Waterhouse and Bott have five runners with stablemate 5. North England another standout from the trials. He burnt along early and although he was probably entitled to run a faster overall time but he maps to lead and will looks the winner a long way out. 9. Tempestuous comes through the same heat as Raging Force and more than held his own.

How To Play It: Raging Force WIN

15. Tupakara ran in the slowest heat of the morning at the Kensington set of trials but there is more to it than that. The daughter of Trapeze Artist was allowed to drift back through the field to settle last. She had shown enough speed to settle closer but after finding her feet she balanced up to work to the line impressively. The Neasham-Archibald trained youngster looked comfortable racing in between horses and gave the impression she had more to give had she been asked. That race sense could prove handy given the Gimcrack is a capacity field of fillies. Tom Sherry looked to be riding with the intention of teaching her something. He stays aboard for her debut. Expecting her to run on late.

Dangers: 8. Memo maps to be giving away a big head start but she too showed great acceleration and late strength in her trial. Had some trouble keeping up early but once she got herself organised she came with a rush to win her heat well. 3. Bel Merci did everything right in her trial and comes through the fastest heat of the morning. Settled off speed before angling into the clear and running on well. Lean her way over the winner of the heat 9. O’ Ole who looked to be all out late and draws awkwardly. 6. Icarian Dream travelled sweetly in her trial, parking in behind the leaders and went to the line under a hold, extending her winning margin on the line. Maps well. Can see why the market has found her.

How To Play It: Tupakara EACH-WAY

3. Swiftfalcon was impressive first up at Flemington. He shouldered 61.5kg over 1420m and had to overcome a slow lead speed but he powered to the line to win decisively. He clocked the second quickest last 600m split of the meeting. The three-year-old gelding has more to offer too. Each time he has stepped out, and he has only had four starts, he has run a new career best. He is a line chaser. That should see him suited out to the mile. The knock is the barrier. It will likely see him settle last. He’ll need to be good to overcome the map as there doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure on paper. What he does still have is upside, perhaps more than any of his rivals here.

Dangers: 4. Media World didn’t get a lot of luck in the Ming Dynasty last start. He wasn’t beaten far by Lady Shenandoah and Mayfair despite running out of room up the fence, slightly inferior ground. Like the improvement he made from first up to second up. Just has to run out a strong mile. That’s the only niggling query. 2. Just Party was also nipping at the heels of the placegetters in the Ming Dynasty. The mile looks fine for him and he meets Media World 2.5kg better off having beaten him home. 7. Johnny The Kid reacted well to stepping out to 1550m last start with the blinkers on for the first time. The form through that race is suspect but he beat them three lengths.

How To Play It: Swiftfalcon WIN

12. Chica Mojito darted up the inside to just miss first up. The winner Firestorm has since won again and goes around in the Epsom later. Chica Mojito finds herself in a BM94 second up so she is racing out of her grade but she carries just 52kg because of that. This isn’t a deep race. The former Kiwi is still stuck on one synthetic maiden win in New Zealand but the majority of her racing has been in black type company. The four-year-old has been given three weeks to recover, tackling the mile now. It sets up well and the draw should see her midfield. It doesn’t look to be a high pressure race on paper so she’ll want to get the start right.

Dangers: 4. Floating improved sharply third up to win well over this same track and trip two weeks ago. Zac Lloyd had the grey in a perfect stalking position on that occasion and he sticks. Only has to hold that form to prove hard to beat. 2. Café Millenium copped interference in the early stages in the Bill Ritchie and it all went to pieces from there. He never found a rhythm. He was plain first up last campaign too before jumping out of the ground second up over the Randwick mile to give Celestial Legend and Militarize a fright in the Guineas. Want to keep him safe at big odds with that in mind. 7. Riyazan split Ceolwulf and Amor Victorious two starts ago before having excuses in the Cameron.

How To Play It: Chica Mojito WIN

In the Tea Rose, 2. Snow In May was saddlecloth number 10. Such was the spike in her ratings that she is now carrying number two. Autumn Glow looks to have found her level for this campaign but the wildcard element to Snow In May does make her hard to beat. She clocked the fastest last 200m split of the meeting two weeks ago.

Dangers: 4. Lady Shenandoah’s raw talent got her home first up in the Ming Dynasty, where he edged out a subsequent Golden Rose placegetter in Mayfair. Albeit she carried 6kg less. Not too many horses break their maiden in Group company and she paraded with plenty of improvement. 3. Lazzura is unlikely to be able to turn the tables on Snow In May from the Tea Rose but she closed off okay.

How To Play It: Snow In May WIN

7. Bella Nipotina sizzled home in the Concorde Stakes. It was a brilliant run in defeat, clocking a lightning fast 31.81s last 600m split. She made a late dive to just miss to her stablemate I Am Me. There was two lengths back to third. She left the likes of Private Eye and Giga Kick in her dust late. I Am Me has since franked that form line by subsequently winning The Shorts. Bella Nipotina has been freshened since, tackling this four weeks between runs. That won’t bother her. She tackled this same race last year off an identical set up running third behind Think About It but the seven-year-old mare has elevated to a new level since then. She has also been remarkably consistent in her past five starts. Maps to be in the second half but should be rushing home again.

Dangers: You’re putting a lot of faith in 1. Giga Kick to bounce back to somewhere near his best in the context of his price on Saturday. His peak performance would win this race, and comfortably. He got a pass mark first up over 1000m and was always going to improve off that being a year on the sidelines prior. Doesn’t have the same residual fitness as Bella Nipotina and she beat him home three lengths first up. Absolutely he’s good enough but he needs to rebound, and quickly. 2. Think About It was tried as a miler last campaign. Not a lot went right. He is five from five over 1200m and four from six at Randwick. One of those being an Everest victory. 3. Mazu will bounce out and make his own luck.

How To Play It: Bella Nipotina WIN

14. Land Legend comes through a high rating Kingston Town Classic behind Eliyass and Ceolwulf. Happy to trust that form reference as the strongest here. It’s also a race that has provided five of the past six Metrop winners. That run will top off Land Legend nicely. He found 1500m too sharp first up, never getting warm before improving out to 2000. Confident that he’ll step forward again off that. He needs to but the lightly-raced five-year old was so impressive when winning the St Leger around this time a year ago. He broke the track record that day. Drops to 51kg. He looks perfectly set up to get near that St Leger performance and if that’s the case, his rivals will be doing well to beat him.

Dangers: 21. Unusual Legacy has had even less starts with just nine to his name. His upside is his biggest appeal. He is yet to produce a performance that’d win a Metrop but he gets out to 2400m for the first time in his career and carries just 50kg and Jay Ford has picked up the ride. 4. Que Tempesta scored a pass mark for his effort in the Naturalism a fortnight ago but he’ll come into his own out to 2400m now. Won by four lengths in Italy the last time he raced over the journey. Respect the placement of the Hayes stable coming to Sydney. 13. Etna Rosso won the Newcastle Cup last start and hasn’t don’t a lot wrong this time back.

How To Play It: Land Legend WIN

7. Ceolwulf has to come back to the mile after contesting the Kingston Town Stakes two weeks ago where he fought out the finish with Eliyass. Trainer Joe Pride will have crafted this campaign for his four-year-old to have him ready for an Epsom. On his age bracket, they have won 10 of the past 15 runnings. It’s been a four-year-olds race in recent times. The turn of foot he showed over 1500m at Rosehill the start prior was unlike anything he had shown in the past. He grinded home to run second in the ATC Derby over the autumn behind Riff Rocket on a heavy track. He has returned a sharper horse this time in. His first campaign as a gelding. He is also tractable in terms of settling position. The horse to beat in a very open Epsom.

Dangers: 10. Berkshire Shadow is the knockout. He hasn’t had much go his way in his Australian career to date. He had no luck at all behind Ceolwulf first up at Rosehill, savaging the line once he saw daylight. Then he was posted three deep the trip in the Cameron at Newcastle yet boxed on to run third. 4. Kovalica is testing the patience of punters being 70 weeks between wins but he turned in an eye catching Epsom trial in the Tramway first up and should have won this race last year off an identical lead in. Forget 6. Democracy Manifest ever ran last start. He never got into the race from the wide draw. He finished alongside Southport Tycoon first up. Last year’s winner 5. Rediener as well as 2. Royal Patronage and 9. Tom Kitten go into the exotics.

How To Play It: Ceolwulf WIN

4. Ostraka produced a brilliant finish to round up his rivals at Rosehill three weeks ago. It was emphatic. And that was despite the race not being run to suit given where he settled. It was even more impressive on the clock. His last 600m split was the quickest across the meeting, and comfortably so. It was a length and a half faster than the next best. The best two performances of his career have come at his past two starts. The other being at Eagle Farm before spelling. The four-year-old has a history of improving with a run under his belt too. This time back was the first fresh win of his career to date. Maps to settle closer. Deep race but he looks hard to hold out.

Dangers: 5. Moravia was equally as dominant two weeks ago. James McDonald parked him in the perfect trailing position but he ripped clear late to win well. Should take confidence from that. He rattled home in the Concorde Stakes first up. Has come back in career best form himself. The same can be said for 21. Briasa! who remained undefeated with an authoritative win at Rosehill five weeks ago. The runner up Blanc De Blanc ties the form in with Ostraka. Carries just 52.5kg up in grade. 15. Infancy is going better than the form guide suggest. They went too slow for her to get into the race first up before she ran into dead ends last start behind Ostraka.

How To Play It: Ostraka WIN

All the fields, form and replays for TAB Epsom Day at Randwick on Saturday