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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:30AM ATC BOOKMAKERS RECOGNITION DAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

3. Hidden Motive was beaten on his merits first up at Warwick Farm but there was five lengths back to second. He raced a touch keen in the early stages which proved decisive in a close finish. That was tacking 1200m first up too. Don’t mind the drop back to 1100m second up off that performance. Prior to that the Nathan Doyle-trained colt, by Capitalist out of Secret Agenda, had won two trials in good style. On debut back in October, he ran a luckless fourth in the Breeders’ Plate behind King Kirk. North England ran third which ties the form into Beskar. Looked to handle the wet track in a Newcastle trial but he has only seen Good tracks on race day. Has got the tactical speed to offset the barrier.

Dangers: 1. Beskar wasn’t helped by engaging in a bumping duel in the straight in the Kindergarten Stakes first up. It looked to put him off stride. Would have liked to have seen him a touch stronger through the line but must respect that he was hammered in late betting to jump $3.50 favourite. Back in grade, fitter, maps to get the same run and finds James McDonald. 11. Akaysha impressed when winning at Kembla Grange on debut. There was two lengths to third and the time was four lengths faster than the Class 1 a race later. Prior to that she had held her own alongside Beskar in a Randwick trial. 8. Tyrone’s Power edged past 10. The Little General in his second trial in fast time for the morning. 5. Federal Reserve trialled better than his price suggests.

How To Play It: Hidden Motive WIN

Race 2 - 12:05PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

10. Sunrise won by a widening seven lengths at Kembla Grange first up, breaking the 1000m track record despite the surface being rated a Soft 5. It was a blistering exhibition of speed from the Mitch Beer-trained mare. She gave nothing else a chance from in front. That appears the best way to ride her. The former Kiwi has now had a preparation for Beer and if that performance is any guide, she’s all the better for it. It was no fluke though. She very nearly pinched a race last campaign, scooting clear only for Smashing Time to chase her down in the final bounds. Her form tapered off at the backend of the campaign but she had perhaps had enough by then. Looks well paired with Rachel King.

Dangers: 4. Angara looks well set up out to 1100m now. Runs over 900m and 1000m at her past two suggest that she is back on track. Has just found those trips a touch too sharp. 8. Mad Darcey gets a pass mark for Hawkesbury first up sixth. She could have found the line better but she’s already a two-time Midway winner and has a great Randwick record (3:2-1-0).

How To Play It: Sunrise WIN

Race 3 - 12:40PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

1. Massira was beaten by the barrier in a 1000m Randwick Highway back in early March. He jumped from 16 of 16 and had to be dragged back through the field to find cover having begun as well as anything. He was then asked to quicken with 61.5kg, going down narrowly. It was a blanket finish but edging past She Within, Kreon and Exit Fee reads well for this. The four-year-old carries 60kg after the claim of Braith Nock and draws better. In his three prior runs for Matt Dale he beat Idle Flyer before running second to Catch The Glory and Weeping Woman in benchmark company. The son of I Am Invincible hasn’t raced for eight weeks, with no official trial, but he would have had a jumpout or two at home.

Dangers: 9. Miss Rebel is a lightly-raced five-year-old mare that was pipped by Cambar in a Highway last campaign. That was over 1100m on a soft track. She spent 94 weeks on the sideline prior to that campaign. Looked sharp in a recent Scone trial win, running fast time. Should hit the ground running this time back. 15. Speedy Henry was the first horse backed when markets came out. He’s untapped having won two from two. First up he made light work of his rivals at Scone over 1100m. Rod Northam is chasing back-to-back Highway wins having won last Saturdays. 5. Caribbean King’s task hasn’t been made an easier by the barrier but keen to see him back on a soft track. Flies fresh and loves the 1000m trip. 6. Joiselle reared at the start at Wyong. Forget that.

How To Play It: Massira WIN

Race 4 - 1:15PM JEFF PENDLEBURY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

1. Zealously had his chance at Warwick Farm first up over 1000m but a rock hard fit Wondereach kicked back to get the verdict on the line. There was near three lengths back to third. The run suggests that a soft track will be fine for the three-year-old going forward. His three wins have all been on good tracks. However, that coincided with him being gelded. His first three runs back when two stone lighter were all on firmer footing. With his mind on the job he charged through the grades with emphatic wins at Kembla, Wyong and Canterbury. That saw him run in the Sunlight in Queensland where he finished fourth behind Private Harry and Lady Of Camelot. Should be able to tag Passeggiata throughout.

Dangers: 6. Passeggiata hasn’t won for just shy of two years now. In that 12 run sequence she has finished second on four occasions. She lacks late strength. It’ll be handle bars down. Always trials like a rocket and it’s no different this time back winning her two trials by a combined nine length margin. Rachel King has ridden her six times for six times for two wins and three seconds. 5. Smashing Time starts here instead of the Midway. Likely to find 1000m too sharp but his trials suggest he has come back well. Will be charging late. Just needs to stay in touch. 3. Extravagent Lad has won four from 11 over 1000m and added to that record at Orange first up with 61.5kg. Respect the placement of Matt Laurie with 2. Miss Icelandic.

How To Play It: Zealously WIN

Race 5 - 1:50PM TOM BINGLE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

The gamble with 1. Star Vega is whether this is one run too soon. However, there is enough in the price to take the punt. Anthony and Sam Freedman stable send the five-year-old to their Sydney stable second up on the back of an inconclusive return in the Listed Golden Mile at Bendigo. He settled out the back in a sprint home on a Good 3 track. This is a very different set up. A small field out to 1800m and the sting should be out of the surface. The five-year-old jumps to 60kg but drops back to benchmark company for the first time in six runs. Over the spring he was competitive against the likes of Berkeley Square and Kingswood. The early market doesn’t look to be giving him enough respect.

Dangers: Punters left the cash in the bag at Hawkesbury first up, confidently backing 3. Saganti. He went down narrowly to 4. State Of America but is better placed out to 1800m on a soft track. He meets the winner 1.5kg better off and finds James McDonald. We’ve only seen the French import twice in Australia, running a close up fifth in the Rosehill Gold Cup as a $7 chance behind Fawkner Park. State Of America remains an underrated horse. He had a fitness advantage over Saganti but wasn’t suited back to the mile third up. 7. Flying Bandit is a talented stayer with upside but he isn’t bombproof and goes up in grade. Too short in betting. 6. Zaphod next best. 8. Miracle Spin is capable but inconsistent.

How To Play It: Star Vega EACH WAY

Race 6 - 2:25PM TERRY MARSKELL HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

The blinkers stay on 6. Step Aside first up. He won when they went on third up last time in. Races well fresh and finds James McDonald. Moved nicely through the line in one trial and will have residual fitness with just a nine week break. Just won’t want the track to be too wet. He looks the likely beneficiary if the leaders overdo it up front.

Dangers: One of those will be 2. Deprivation. He looked flat first up at Warwick Farm but once he didn’t lead, it was game over. He is a control freak. Out to 1200m suits better too. 3. Piastri has been scratched a number of times since he ran in Queensland first up over 1000m. The stable are chasing wet tracks with the gelding. Has won three from five on soft ground. Tackles this six weeks between runs.

How To Play It: Step Aside WIN

Race 7 - 3:00PM NEVILLE WATERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. Lonhro’s Queen has won six of her ten starts for Cameron Crockett. The Scone-based trainer is bullish that the four-year-old mare is in career-best form after first and second up wins. The evidence suggests that he is right. She loved the wet conditions on her home track over 1000m rounding up her rivals to win going away. That saw her jump favourite in a Hawkesbury BM72 and again she gave her rivals a start before mowing them down. That was with Braith Nock in the saddle, who keeps the ride. Lonhro’s Queen raced in this grade last campaign but wasn’t suited by the lack of pressure and she struck traffic. This sets up perfectly against the mares.

Dangers: 6. Monte Kate did enough first up at the midweeks when fifth to Ballroom Bella. That was as a $9 chance. 1. Memoria ran fourth as a $7 chance. Yet there is a huge discrepancy between their prices on Saturday. Beat Left Field and Wooloowin over 1200m before spelling. 7. Pajanti has won her past two first up. Last time in she beat Memoria, who was $1.60 favourite, first up on a soft track over 1200m. Her form tapered off thereafter. Memoria’s advantage here is that she is hard fit and makes her own luck. Has held her form all through the preparation so far. Wish this was 1100m for 9. Martini Mumma. That’s the knock, especially first up.

How To Play It: Lonhro’s Queen WIN

Race 8 - 3:35PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

10. Wootton Verni being an import tackling this 42 weeks between runs and with Chris Waller all points to him needing the run. However, a half-fit Wootton Verni could still prove too classy for these. The five-year-old was a late nomination for the Cox Plate when first bought by Go Bloodstock. He beat Sunway in France back in May last year, with Sunway since franking that form in the French Derby, Irish Derby, King George, St Leger and Arc. You get the point. There’s great depth to his international form. Wootton Verni appears very well treated with a rating of 93. Should be too good for benchmark company. He returns having undergone surgery to repair a fissure (hairline) fracture but has trialled nicely since on two occasions. James McDonald rides.

Dangers: 13. Green Fly chased down 18. Cool Jakey at Rosehill despite giving away what appeared to be an impossible start. Cool Jakey has run well since and there was two lengths back to third. That was the first time that Green Fly had won first up. He had taken a run to fire in the past with his second up record reading 5:3-0-1. This race sets up perfectly, three weeks between runs, out to 1500m and the prospect of another soft track. 3. Ducasse likes wet ground too. Comes back slightly in grade having run third in a leader dominated Doncaster Prelude. Only has to hold his form to be in the finish again. The make up of the field and how the inside is playing will be critical to 2. Major Beel’s chances but don’t underestimate the depth of his Group One form from the spring. 9. Bold Mac is a knockout hope.

How To Play It: Wootton Verni WIN

Race 9 - 4:15PM NSW BOOKMAKERS CO-OP HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

10. Colophon gapped his rivals having led at Kembla Grange last start. That’s a new career peak at start nine. There still might be more to come.

Dangers: 3. Istolea Merc also produced a PB last start, leading at Hawkesbury. 9. Yankee One ran out a strong 1400m winning at Warwick Farm. Well bred colt 14. Duvana looks too well found despite his upside.

How To Play It: Colophon WIN

Race 10 - 4:50PM TAB HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Know Thyself took his record to five wins from eight starts when landing the biggest victory of his career in the Country Championships Final at Randwick. The Paul Messara and Leah Gavranich-trained gelding had to settle in the second half of the field from the wide draw but it mattered little, chasing down his rivals to leave them without an excuse. The progression out to 1600m looks perfect now. As does the prospect of a rain-affected track. His only recent failure came first up this time in when not appreciating a Good 3 at Tamworth, failing as an odds on favourite. Lumps 61kg in this company but it looks to be a race with limited winning chances despite it’s numbers.

Dangers: 12. Kind Words was kept fresh for the Provincial Midway Championships Final, staying at 1400m second up. She ran well but raced like she wanted the mile. Her last 200m was the fastest in the race. Being held up momentarily didn’t help either. Want to trust the form through the race. Was a third up winner last preparation but out to 2000m. The barrier makes things problematic. Over to you J-Mac. 5. Fukubana worked home well behind Know Thyself three weeks ago. His only previous run over the mile was in the Randwick Guineas last year. 9. Poppin’ Champagne was dominant at Warwick Farm over the mile last start. Should hold that form third up.

How To Play It: Know Thyself WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting

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