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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 12:30PM SHINZO @ COOLMORE PLATE (1000 METRES)

1. Albany Road hasn’t looked a ‘jump and run’ style of two-year-old in his trials but have been impressed by the way he has found the line. In his latest 740m heat at Randwick he couldn’t muster the speed to get into a prominent position, instead drifting back in the field but he delivered a powerful finish. The overall time of that heat was only fair compared to the morning but his last 200m split was the quickest of the lot. With the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott polish he’ll be well educated. The Exceed And Excel colt draws a middle gate to settle closer than we saw in his trials. Tim Clark takes the ride on Saturday. The early market looks to have the key chances well cornered off their trial form with Albany Road being one of them.

Dangers: 7. Pallaton’s trial form ties in well here. He ran second to Albany Road in the first of those but was in cruise control for the entire heat. The half brother to stablemate Yiska did it comfortably. He then held off 8. Quietly Arrogant in another impressive hitout. Has got tactical speed. Tommy Berry combines with Michael Freedman. Quietly Arrogant has had just the one trial where he took late ground off Pallaton. He was the last out but the strongest home. Looks talented. 3. Chergui has won a Flemington jumpout and a Ballarat trial ahead of his debut. The slow overall times poses questions but he passed the eye test. Looks to have early speed to offset the wide draw. He’s a half to Tassort, Alizee and Astern. Godolphin stablemate 2. Centopath maps to get the right run and is a half to Commemorative. Liked 4. Devil Knight’s one trial.

How To Play It: Albany Road WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 2 - 1:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Texas Fireball looks well set up in Class 3 Highway company out to the mile third up. The four-year-old grey has been good in two runs back. First up he ran as well as he could over 1200m in a deep race won by Epic Proportions with second and third both winning their subsequent starts. Texas Fireball was then a month between runs out to 1350m. He settled last before rattling home into second. He was visually flattered by the fast pace up front but should clean him up perfectly for Saturday’s assignment. Matt Dunn thought enough of the son of Zoustar to run him in the Tulloch and Frank Packer Plate as a three-year-old. He was luckless in the former before not handling a heavy track. Will give away a head start but looks to have a class edge on these.

Dangers: 5. Moritz Girl clocked the fastest last 200m split of the race when running home into fifth in a Highway at Kembla Grange last start. It was a lightning fast track and not an easy meeting to make up ground from back and wide. She chased home Blazing Harry prior to that at Randwick in benchmark company. Profiles to improve again out to the mile now. Has trialled well since to bridge the month between runs. 4. Fiorsum Fred strode forward to settle outside of the leader at Wyong last start. He was no match for the winner but the race was won in fast time. His run in the same Highway as Moritz Girl prior was better than it reads on paper. 8. In Summer draws 14 of 14 but ran well in Highway company two weeks ago at Rosehill. 9. Magic Pharoah is capable at this level on her day.

How To Play It: Texas Fireball WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 3 - 1:40PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

Have been waiting for 13. Callistemon to get out to the mile. She drops back in grade, draws a soft gate and has raced well at Randwick in the past, despite the form guide suggesting otherwise. It looks time to push the button and back this Kerry Parker-trained mare. The four-year-old has returned as well as ever, building into her campaign. She ran out of room late first up behind Blazing Harry, then wasn’t beaten far in a sprint home at Newcastle before staying at 1400m third up in another on speed dominated race. That was at Rosehill. Jay Ford has stuck with the daughter of Territories all preperation. He has been happy to settle in the second half of the field to this point but expecting her to be more prominent on Saturday.

Dangers: 4. General Soho profiles as the best roughie. He is a well exposed nine-year-old with little upside but his best gives this a shake. He worked home well at Rosehill last start on a deteriorating heavy track. He hasn’t loved those conditions in the past. His two runs prior also had merit. 1. Dr Evil butters up for his 19th Midway run. He has won two of them. He bounced back in a big way at Warwick Farm last start, improving sharply off his runs prior. Talented on his day but he’s becoming hard to catch. 3. Rapt worked home well in Listed company in Queensland first up behind Danny’s St Darci and Cigar Flick. That’s promising for what lies ahead over the summer. 8. Direct Fire was a Midway winner three starts ago. Tried hard on the heavy track last start.

How To Play It: Callistemon WIN ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 4 - 2:15PM INGLIS CLASSIC SALE 9-11 FEB OUT NOW HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Lulumon comes into this having won a near identical race two weeks ago. There is little between this field of mares with much of the form intertwining. The obvious difference from Rosehill is that it won’t be a bottomless heavy track on Saturday. At least not according to the forecast! However, this Jason Coyle-trained mare is just as effective on top of the ground. Tim Clark rode the perfect race on her last start and from barrier 1, he should be able to stalk the speed again without spending a penny early. Will just need the breaks to fall her way. The likely leader in 4. I Am Famous should take her everywhere she needs to go in the straight as she looks one of her biggest threats, despite being first up.

Dangers: 2. Llanddwyn ended last campaign with a couple of career best performances. She comes through a key form race for this having run sixth behind Redbreast. Having to duck back to the inside and being first up over 1400m on a wet track just saw her flatten out late. Gets the right set up to turn the tables on 3. Terrestar and her stablemate 6. Pippie Beach. That’s no knock on the recent form of Terrestar. The map is a touch tricky but she is versatile in terms of settling position. Only has to hold her form to be a player again. I Am Famous won three from four last campaign as she went through the grades. Was potentially flattered by finding slowly run races, and being able to dictate, but it could be the same again here.

How To Play It: Lulumon WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 5 - 2:50PM PETALUMA HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

1. Dawn Service has three runs from his five starts that’d win this race. At least on what all of his rivals here have produced to this point in their careers. Granted, the majority are lightly-raced but Dawn Service looks to be too classy. The three-year-old, on a Magic Millions path, is already a Listed winner at Flemington. That saw him jump a $3.70 chance in the Group Two Stutt Stakes. He raced flat, having come to the end of his preperation. Perhaps the mile found him out too. The blueblood colt by Justify out of Sunlight could have trialled a touch better but that’s just him. Going back through his trials prior to his debut, they didn’t jump out visually. Tim Clark has ridden Dawn Service in three of his fives starts but the stable elect to take the 3kg claim of Ben Osmond. Looks astute.

Dangers: 10. Diddle Dumpling has had a six week freshen since finally breaking her maiden. That was as a $1.24 chance. Job done. That could give her the confidence to go right on with it now. Looked great when coasting to the line in a recent Rosehill trial. Talented filly. 6. Metaphorically had to shoulder into the clear to win at Canterbury but it was all over bar the shouting once he did. He too comes via maiden grade but he too can go through the grades now. Significantly, he maps to get the same soft run. 2. Getafix was developing a few tricks last campaign but a switch to Melbourne saw him add win number two to his record. He has residual fitness and has trialled well. 3. Midnight Dynamite just keeps stepping up to the mark. Still untapped but draws awkwardly.

How To Play It: Dawn Service WIN ($3.70)

Race 6 - 3:25PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (2400 METRES)

3. Gilded Water is a well found early favourite. Justifiably so given his profile. The four-year-old is a stayer going places. He ground out a determined win at Kembla Grange at his first run in Australia over 2000m and raced like he wanted 2400m already. It shouldn’t come as any great surprise given that his half-brother is Sydney Cup winner Circle Of Fire, who went from a 78 rated horse to a 112 rated horse in seven runs. Gilded Water is potentially on a similar trajectory. The runner up from Kembla, Alacance, was subsequently touched off in last Saturday’s Christmas Cup in Listed company to frank the form line. 5. Be Real was beaten four lengths and has since won at Rosehill, which looks another key form reference for this. Expecting him to win and can mark him even money.

Dangers: 10. California Grass has improved with each run this time back, relishing getting out to 2400m at her past two starts. Two starts ago she chased home Kadavar at Rosehill, who subsequently won at Caulfield before edging past Alalcance last week. California Grass then put a midweek field away. It was arrogant and a career best performance. Should hold her form. Be Real landed good bets to win two weeks ago, relishing the heavy conditions. Or at least handling them best. Tries 2400m for the first time. 4. Good Banter was a length behind her in that race, holding down third. Like Be Real though, there’s an argument to be made that Good Banter is at her best on wet tracks. 9. Tastula is a raw staying prospect ripping through the grades. Gives the impression he’ll eat up this trip.

How To Play It: Gilded Water WIN ($2.00 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 7 - 4:00PM CAPTIVANT @ KIA ORA HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

7. Bright Red finds a race that lacks depth. Expecting her to improve again third up out to the mile which makes her the horse to beat. The four-year-old perhaps doesn’t have a lot of upside and boasts just three wins from 17 starts but there aren’t too many other places to turn. First up she worked home into third over 1300m at the midweeks before trying hard in defeat behind Shangri La Spring, a progressive three-year-old that is undefeated this campaign. That was on a testing heavy track too. Despite being early in her preperation she never shirked the task. Draws a soft gate which should see her camp midfield. Ride her too close and it can dull her finish so it’s a delicate balance that Zac Lloyd has been tasked with getting right.

Dangers: Would have had 1. Invincible Spy on top at the early price if not for 9. O’Ziggy being in the race and drawing underneath him. That could leave Invincible Spy vulnerable late. That pair does ensure a genuine clip for Bright Red, however. Invincible Spy has beaten home both Bright Red and 6. Fiddlers Green in the past. He’ll improve sharply off his first up run when fading late to be well beaten at Warwick Farm and is two from two second up. Fiddlers Green comes through that same Shagri La Spring race at Rosehill where he didn’t look comfortable in the ground. Ran out a 5.5L winner at Hawkesbury first up, the start prior. O’Ziggy was always in control at Hawkesbury last start. He should hold that form now with has him in the mix. The market has recognised that though.

How To Play It: Bright Red WIN ($4.00 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 8 - 4:40PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

8. Uzziah was beaten 10 lengths in the Festival Stakes last start at Rosehill. However, he had a number of excuses. He pulled up slow to recover, two out of five lame and was said to have not appreciated the soft track. Respect that he jumped a $13 chance in a Group Three. The six-year-old has been given three weeks to freshen up from that, having missed a run in the Ingham as an emergency. He’ll appreciate a drop back in grade, getting back onto a firmer track and coming back to 1400m shouldn’t be an issue. He doesn’t map to have too much company up top and looks well paired with Tim Clark. Prior to the Festival, he found himself in career best form beating a subsequent winner in Inhibitions. Catches a number of his key rivals on the hop with a fitness edge.

Dangers: 1. Palmetto is one of the fresh horses here. It’s been over a year since his last win but he has raced in good company since that victory, including lining up in a Doncaster. Was great first up last campaign but that was off an eight week let up. This time it’s a 28 week spell. Has trialled well. 9. Ang Pow was no match for Uzziah at Newcastle first up before improving second up when second to I’mintowin. He was beaten three lengths on the heavy track. Trending the right way. 10. Elettrica led and boxed on okay behind Chorlton Lane and subsequent Nowra Cup winner Super Helpful in a deep race at Canberra last start. 7. So Risque knocked up late first up. He’s capable of much better.

How To Play It: Uzziah WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 9 - 5:20PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

1. Our Kobison had no excuses in the Starlight Stakes last start other than being eight weeks between runs. That told late. He settled in behind the speed whereby the leader Eagle Nest pinched it from in front. It was impossible for the backmarkers. That form line was franked in the Razor Sharp providing the first three home. Even Aberlour, who ran last, subsequently ran well out to 1400m. Our Kobison does have a history of improving with a run under his belt. He stays at 1100m but that doesn’t look to be a negative. Maps well, gets in well after the claim of Molly Bourke, who rides the five-year-old for the first time, and he has a great record at Randwick. Can only run well.

Dangers: 8. Time To Boogie ran a career best first up last campaign. It was over 1000m in a race that he controlled form the outside of the leader but he is explosive fresh. Wasn’t able to replicate that thereafter but respect his SP profile of $2.40 and $1.30. Has had tie back surgery since then. 7. In Flight wasn’t beaten far by Our Kobison in the Starlight. Strips fitter for that but has to replicate her best form on top of the ground and also has a tricky gate to navigate. 3. The Bopper is better than what he produced at Warwick Farm in October. He wasn’t the best into stride and that proved costly. That was first up after a 58 week break, Was tipped straight out after that. 2. Garza Blanca comes into this a last start winner while 4. Much Much Better can give cheek fresh.

How To Play It: Our Kobison WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)

Race 10 - 5:55PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

8. Little Beginnings didn’t handle the heavy track at Rosehill last start. He kept trying but his wheels were spinning. Forget that. It’s not the first time he has failed in the going. Instead, respect how firm he was in betting despite that. He jumped a $3.40 second favourite. The race was carved up by scratchings, granted, but the market has been quick to dismiss him on the back of that ahead of Saturday’s assignment. The reason he was so well found was because of an impressive first up win at the midweeks, beating Drift Net and Bright Red. He has a few tricks so it’s significant that apprentice Ben Osmond sticks with the five-year-old. Maps to get the right run from the soft draw. He can bounce back at odds on top of the ground.

Dangers: The only knock on 13. Yorkshire is his price. This is a deeper race than his early quote suggests. He’s a smart horse with three wins from four starts but is slightly up in grade and all of his previous form is on wet tracks. Has trialled well. Maps well. It’s unlikely to be as straight forward for 9. Accredited from the wide gate as it was at Warwick Farm last start. He was sent to the front, ridden like the best horse and romped home at $1.55. He’s still improving. 5. West Of Africa has won three of his past five, racing full of confidence last campaign. Can run a race fresh and 1300m suits first up. Convinced that 6. Bojangles is going much better than the form guide suggests. He didn’t handle the heavy track last start. The draw doesn’t help here, otherwise he’d be promoted.

How To Play It: Little Beginnings EACH WAY ($17.00 TAB Fixed Odds)

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Royal Randwick meeting

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