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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:20AM RANVET HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

4. Bullfighter was beaten at Muswellbrook on debut but the market has been very quick to dismiss his chances. Arguably, too quick. The colt found himself on a heavy track and he didn’t look comfortable. He came under pressure a long way out. To his credit, he stuck on to not be beaten far. Being a son of Capitalist he should relish getting back onto a firmer track. The two-year-olds ran faster time than the older horses on the meeting which is encouraging as a form reference. He gets the right set up to turn the tables on 7. Pride To Follow. Throw into the mix that Bullfighter jumped a heavily backed even money favourite. There was market expectation on the back of a dominant Randwick trial win. It’s not too often you get the chance to back a Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained youngster at this price. And Tim Clark does the steering.

Dangers: 1. Tarpaulin always travelled like the winner at Warwick Farm last start, justifying being sent around an odds on favourite. He’d run second to Mawjood in a fast race the start prior. In the context of him being an odds on chance again, there are a couple of little queries, mainly coming back to 1100m and his recent good form has all been on heavy tracks. 2. Barbie’s Sister, who is a full sister to Outback Barbie (which makes sense!), is a speedy filly down from Queensland. Trainer Tony Gollan holds her in high regard and rightly so given the way she won the Calway Gal as a $1.75 favourite back in December, beating El Morzillo. Had a setback thereafter, hence the 33 weeks between runs. Won her one trial by seven lengths at Doomben. 5. Sakima defied a market drift to win at Kensington first up. Liked her run behind Hallett on debut.

How To Play It: Bullfighter EACH WAY

Race 2 - 11:55AM TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1800 METRES)

11. Imarichgirl has had three runs for Matt Dunn since coming across from New Zealand. She has been great in all three. In the first she charged late to run fourth at Doomben, before then backing that up with a Sunshine Coast win. Last start she was blocked early in the straight at Eagle Farm but picked herself up to find the line. Like the progression out to 1800m now. The only three times the daughter of Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan has raced beyond the mile was in Group company across the ditch. One of those was a fourth to Polygon. Despite being a mare with 22 starts, she still does plenty wrong. That’s the gamble. She tends to began awkwardly, giving away big head starts. There is enough in the early price to take the punt that she can overcome that. The stable know a thing or too when it comes to winning Highways.

Dangers: 6. Victory Roll wasn’t suited coming back to the mile last start on the eight day backup, beaten six lengths by Cranky Harry. Prior to that he dropped out on a testing heavy track as a $1.60 favourite. The reason he was so short was because of the dominance of his Goulburn win in Class 1 company over a staying trip. Sets up to potentially improve sharply. 10. Field The Moment comes off two seconds in Highway company. Her last 200m last start matched Cranky Harry’s. It was sprint home but her late strength suggests that 1800m will be okay. 2. County Kilkenny boxed on well behind Toes In The Water at Rosehill four weeks ago. He too looks well set up out to 1800m now. 9. Behind The Storm may have been flattered by getting on speed favours alongside Cranky Harry last start but have to respect that form reference.

How To Play It: Imarichgirl WIN

Race 3 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Peace Officer has been desperate for a drier track. He gets that on Saturday. Expect more from the four-year-old. His best form is on top of the ground. It was noticeable the improvement he made just getting back onto a soft track last start, let alone the promise of a good track. He kept closing in BM78 company behind Ha Ha Ha. He has already won two Midways, both back in 2023, both on good tracks. The Clarry Conners-trained gelding is yet to win past 1400m but his two runs at the mile have been great. One of those was two weeks ago, the other was a second in the Nowra Cup behind Floating. He needs things to fall into place given where he has drawn and his pattern but he is well in after the claim of Zac Wadick and expecting a truly run race with 13. November Falls scooting across from the wide draw to lead.

Dangers: 3. Green Shadows is another galloper that’ll appreciate better track. He isn’t as dynamic on wet ground. It nulls his turn of foot. Like the way he ran through the line to run fourth at the midweeks last start. Can be hard to catch but his best is hard to beat. Finds James McDonald. 13. November Falls may have been flattered by a run of wet tracks. She might be the opposite. Drops to just 52.5kg after the claim and looks well paired with apprentice Molly Bourke. Will take catching. 14. Sebrenco powered to the line at Grafton last week. That suggests she’s ready for the mile again. It’s been 92 weeks since she last won. 2. Dr Evil has to replicate his recent good form on a dry track but he isn’t completely one dimensional in that regard. Nash Rawiller sticks.

How To Play It: Peace Officer EACH WAY

Race 4 - 1:05PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

4. Decadent Tale raced flat last start. Not sure what to make of that run. Perhaps it was one too many on heavy tracks. Respect that she jumped an $8 chance in a much deeper race than this. She comes back to fillies and mares company and like the month between runs so ensure she freshens up from four weeks ago. Jason Collett jumps back on having won on the mare two starts ago here at Randwick. The concern has to be where she gets to from the draw. It’s only a small field but there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed on paper. She won’t want to be spotting the leaders too big of a head start. Wonder if she can come across to settle closer. Has raced well from more forward positions in the past.

Dangers: The blinkers going back on 2. Defining had an immediate impact. She covered ground at Randwick two weeks ago, trucking herself into the race but dashed well to win by a margin. The challenge here is jumping from 1400m to 1800m. She is eight starts into her preparation so fitness won’t be an excuse. 3. Blackcomb overachieved at Rosehill last start as a $51 chance behind Bear On The Loose. Her starting price casts some doubt over whether she can repeat that but she’s hard to beat if she can. The runner up Don Diego De Vega has since won, as have the horses that finished fifth and sixth. 5. Mascaret has four lengths to turnaround on Defining but she was five weeks between runs, coming back from the mile to 1400m. Gets a 3kg weight swing and jumped shorter in the market. Easy case to make.

How To Play It: Decadent Tale EACH WAY

Race 5 - 1:40PM TAB HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

1. World Alliance asserted his dominance the last 100m at Warwick Farm last start. It wasn’t the ideal set up for the improving four-year-old dropping back from 1100m first up to 1000m but he was soft on the line. That late strength was backed up on the clock. The son of Rubick was heavily backed late to jump an odds on favourite. That money was spot on, which saw the sprinter take his record to four wins from seven starts. Jason Collett has been aboard in both runs this time back as the pair chase three straight and although World Alliance is creeping up in the weights, he maps to get a perfect trail in behind what promises to be a fast run race. There’s a lot of speed engaged. They’ll be doing well to hold him out. The horse to beat.

Dangers: Not sure where to turn if it isn’t World Alliance. 14. Euros has been no match for World Alliance in her two runs back but she gets a 3kg weight swing and can improve getting back on top of the ground. Blinkers go back on. 13. Joiselle made it three from three with a dominant win at Scone first up. We’ll learn more about where she fits in after Saturday. 2. Boston Rocks travelled well first up at Rosehill but when given his head to quicken, he floundered in the heavy ground. Has been given four weeks to freshen up from that and finds Nash Rawiller. He’ll improve but the market has recognised that. 5. Bundeena comes into this a last start winner, overcoming an awkward getaway. The barrier makes his assignment tough. As it does for 9. Hi Dubai but she was good behind World Alliance last start.

How To Play It: World Alliance WIN

Race 6 - 2:15PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES)

3. Ha Ha Ha bounced back in a big way over this track and trip two weeks ago. After an encouraging return to the races on the back of a lengthy stint on the sidelines she raced flat second up. That left punters scratching their heads but she reminded us of her quality last start. Nash Rawiller went to Plan B after speed kicked up underneath her in the early stages, dragging her back through the field and it was the Irish import produce a turn of foot that rounded up her rivals. She put them to the sword late. The five-year-old rises slightly in grade but she was poking around in Listed company when racing overseas. Like the prospect of her getting onto an improving track too. That acceleration could become even sharper. Tim Clark rides on Saturday.

Dangers: Was it the wet track that saw 2. Tijuana improve last start at Randwick? Potentially. He shot clear like the winner only for War Eternal to run him down late. The winner subsequently started favourite in a stakes race. Finds James McDonald. Just a little wary given he was $21. 8. Space Age drops to 52kg after the claim. He looks to have a task in turning the tables on Ha Ha Ha but he’ll run well with the set up. Has found his form now. 1. Galeron was only beaten three lengths by Munhamek in black type company last start. Carries and extra 7kg back to benchmark company. There’s intent in the set up resuming 7. Roma Avenue over the mile. Could get on speed favours.

How To Play It: Ha Ha Ha WIN

Race 7 - 2:50PM KIA ORA PRAGUE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Shezanalister is still on the up. The four-year-old mare has won four of her past five starts, adding to that tally first up over this same track and trip three weeks ago. Granted, it was against her own sex in BM78 company but it was also on a heavy track with 61kg. It could be a sign of what’s to come for the daughter of Star Turn this preparation. Trainer Bjorn Baker is hooping to target better races providing she continues to impress. Tommy Berry has ridden her three times for three wins and he jumps back on for Saturday’s assignment. Sheezanalister maps to stalk the speed from another inside gate and still being on fresh legs, expecting her to take holding out. Early betting has it a two-horse race with Fleetwood but at the slightly better price, leaning the mare’s way.

Dangers: 4. Fleetwood was perhaps found out at the end of a 1200m down the straight at Flemington last start. That was in Listed company. Others were stronger through the line. That sees him well placed back to benchmark grade and back to 1100m. Returned a gelding this time back. 6. Chief Conductor didn’t look to have any excuses at Canterbury last start having found the fast lane on the fence but he didn’t let down on the heavy track. His run prior at Randwick, savaging the line behind Fleetwood from last suggests that he is worth a second look at odds. Not sure what happened to 5. Tristate first up when backed at double figure odds. Was forced to trial again and looked full of running. Tipping the plan will be to ride him for speed, use the light weight.

How To Play It: Shezanalister WIN

Race 8 - 3:30PM ATC THANK YOU TRAINERS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

1. Vivy Air is an easy bet to have at the early prices compared to what is being offered up about boom horse Kerguelen. Ciaron Maher recently took over the training of this three-year-old filly. Before diving into the depth of her form, it’s interesting to note that Mark Zahra comes to Sydney for just the one ride. This girl. Vivy Air races well fresh and should have been a first up winner last campaign. She was a good thing beaten when flashing home into second behind Legacies. Thereafter she started in the market in two Group races. The daughter of Hellbent has trialled twice ahead of her return and caught the eye on both occasions making up late ground under a hold. The 1300m looks a nice kick off point and hoping she can hold a midfield position from the draw.

Dangers: 4. Kerguelen has had three starts, all on heavy tracks. He was a lip away second up from being three from three. He atoned for that narrow loss last start at Warwick Farm. It was the softest of wins. The margin flattered his rivals. Looks talented, no doubt, but he looks too well found. 14. Yorkshire needs a scratching to make the field. The Snitzel gelding made a big impression on debut at Hawkesbury, putting four lengths on his rivals and clocking a time six lengths faster than the fillies and mares maiden a race later. 7. Invader Zim was beaten by a cruel bob of the heads at Randwick first up. That was only his fourth start. Comes on from that but this is a deeper race. 3. Kadall found the line well at the end of 1100m two weeks ago. Out to 1300m suits now.

How To Play It: Vivy Air WIN

Race 9 - 4:10PM ATC THANK YOU OWNERS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

9. King Of Florida is a work in progress. However, he looks a talented import worth keeping an eye on. The first thing that strikes you about the four-year-old is his presence in the yard. He was flanked by two strappers in his first Australian run as he hasn’t been the most straightforward horse to get going by all reports. On the track he raced wide the trip, loomed but peaked on his run on a heavy track. He was set to run again at Randwick two weeks ago but broke through the front of the barriers. Hence the blindfold going on for the first time here. Since then he has been back to the trials and like what he did in his heat, jumping well to take up the running before coasting to the line. Did look a little keen throughout but jockey Jay Ford now has the benefit of having had a sit aboard him. This is a winnable race.

Dangers: 3. Etna Rosso returns a gelding and like the way he won at the midweeks prior to spelling. Kicking off over 1800m suggests that he is forward enough to run well first up. Ignore his finishing positions in his two trials, he wasn’t out to do much and was warming up through the line. 4. Awash is racing well. He comes up from Melbourne having finished top two in his past three runs. Finished too well for his rivals last start, winning at Sandown. It is midweek form so he looks well found in betting with that in mind. James McDonald rides, hence the price. 11. The Englishman levelled up to Don Diego De Vega over this same track and trip two weeks ago but couldn’t put him away. This isn’t any harder. 10. Enotis returned well at Canterbury and can only build off that.

How To Play It: King Of Florida EACH WAY

Race 10 - 4:45PM ATC THANK YOU STABLE STAFF HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

10. Sequestered sizzled home to win first and second up last preparation. Both of those performances were on good tracks. The four-year-old’s campaign went south in two runs thereafter. She was beaten as favourite after looming ominously before dropping out to run last at Flemington. She ran fourth in an Adrian Knox as a filly but perhaps she is more dynamic kept to shorter trips. She has the turn of foot for it. The 1300m looks a perfect target for her on Saturday. She has spent 37 weeks on the sidelines, with two trials to tune her up for her return. Draws soft and James McDonald is booked to ride. The only trade off is how well found she is in betting. Can’t tip against her. Looks too well placed. Hold fire and hope for a better price come closer to jump.

Dangers: 3. Lady Of Luxury has had no luck at all in her past two runs. Forgive the beaten margins. She is a past winner over this track and trip. She sprouted wings to win from last. Has that in her locker. Don’t be fooled by her recent form on paper. 9. Sweet Mercy won first up last campaign, albeit at the midweeks. She looked sharp in winning a recent Rosehill trial. Maps to be smothered up just in behind the speed. Dry track, fresh and a soft gate. Lots of positives. The form around 12. Cadetship’s first trial reads well now. He has been given another hitout since then but was buried away in behind the pack. Looks to be ticking over well. Can’t knock the consistency of 6. Little Cointreau.

How To Play It: Sequestered WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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