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Brad Gray's Tips For Royal Randwick (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:05AM PETALUMA HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Mayfair looks a likely type off his three trials. The son of Fastnet Rock has won his most recent two, both at Randwick. He began well, settled on top of the speed and gave a kick at the finish. Like that the latest of them was out to 1050m giving him a good grounding for what will be a testing 1100m on debut with more rain forecast ahead of Saturday. Tim Clark was on board in those two trial wins and he is with the colt first up. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable are striking at a tick above 30% with their two-year-old this season outside of black type company and above 25% overall. Mayfair has a tactical advantage over the odds on favourite and is a much bigger price.

Dangers: 1. Winning Proposal is a last start Warwick Farm winner. Being a two-time winner she again gives away weight to her rivals. 3. Brave One's most recent trial was promising, looks a talented colt.

How To Play It: Mayfair WIN

Race 2 - 11:40AM ROBRICK LODGE EREMEIN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

2. Until Valhalla was more quietly ridden at Kensington last start at the midweeks and she responded by gapping her rivals. That was the Snitzel filly’s first exposure to heavy ground. She relished it. Not only was the three length margin dominant but she also ran time. Significantly faster time than Pure Alpha, who took out the last in BM72 company. The form through the race has been franked a number of times since. The runner up Emmadella has won a Midway comfortably since while the third placegetter Nanshe subsequently won at Newcastle. Even Zouphoria, beaten 11 lengths, came out and ran a narrow third just last Saturday. Until Valhalla’s best two performances now have been at Kensington but if she can repeat last start on the course proper she’ll win this too.

Dangers: Ciaron Maher looks to have the race well cornered with stablemate 5. Lady Boss the obvious threat. This filly resumed at Canterbury on heavy ground and gave her rivals the slip having settled outside of the leader. Has a tactical advantage over Until Valhalla. 9. Art Volant’s run last Saturday was better than it reads on paper. She got out the back in a slowly run race, making ground through the line behind In Flight. Won a midweek race on a heavy track the starts prior. On the back up and out to 1300m suit. 6. Invader Zim looks well found in betting on the back of a maiden win in February but he has upside. 4. Manwe resumes a gelding.

How To Play It: Until Valhalla WIN

Race 3 - 12:15PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

1. Navy Blood gets the blinkers first time, loves heavy tracks and is on the seven day backup. It’s an appealing profile. The three-year-old colt also gets Nash Rawiller. Navy Blood was unfancied at Rosehill last week, easing late in betting but he made a race of it. He loomed as the winner over 1300m but his run ended which saw Emmadella dash clear late. Navy Blood had nothing to take him into the race, looping the field from last and was five weeks between runs having been freshened after disappointing at Randwick out to 1400m. A similar scenario confronts the son of Merchant Navy on Saturday from another wide gate but he gets conditions to suit again. Another open Midway but he is the horse to beat.

Dangers: 8. Iron Man burst through late to beat Diamond Model at Canterbury first up. An encouraging return from the promising gelding. He has built a great record and gapped his rivals in his only previous run on a heavy track, albeit in maiden company at Kembla Grange. 7. Rush Hour couldn’t pick his feet up in testing conditions at Rosehill first up. Punters that were forgiving of that run were nearly rewarded second up with the gelding going down narrowly behind Flightcrew. Can settle a pair closer here. 3. Cripps Tonite boxed on okay in Midway company last start, improving on his first up showing. That puts him thereabouts again along with 4. So Good So Cool.

How To Play It: Navy Blood WIN

Race 4 - 12:50PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

Training partnership Paul Messara and Leah Gavranich have won the past two Highway Handicaps they have contested. First with Rematch then with Know Thyself. Unbeaten mare 10. Clear Thinking is looking to make that three straight. The daughter of Dubawi, out of brilliant mare Sweet Idea, has made light work of her rivals at Scone in her two wins to date, justifying being sent around $1.50 and then $1.24. The latest of those was on a Soft 7. The runner up from her most recent Class 1 win was subsequently well held at Scone on Tuesday but it’s the manner in which she won that has the stable talking about potential Kosciuszko aspirations. Entitled to be well found.

Dangers: 1. Tanglewood pulled up lame after failing at Randwick six weeks ago. He was too bad to be true. That was on the back of a Newcastle Highway win on a heavy track. The four-year-old has won two trials since then. He looks set to bounce back. Not convinced that 15. Fuld’s Doubt was all that comfortable on the heavy track at Wyong last start but like the prospect of her in Class 3 company, and dropping 6.5kg after the claim of Jett Stanley. 3. Nipotino is a last start Highway winner, holding out 5. Syrian Star. Wanted to find 2. Lisztomania being such a talented horse but first up for 35 weeks, drawn wide on a heavy track poses plenty of obstacles.

How To Play It: Clear Thinking WIN

Race 5 - 1:25PM TASK HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

7. Strathtay carries an extra 3kg from last start at Rosehill but it was an impressive win. Even allowing for the fact that he travelled on the fence, which was an advantage at that meeting, once the former Kiwi angled into the clear he exploded late to put 3.5 lengths on his rivals. The four-year-old was only second up there and has been given three weeks between runs. Punters can take plenty of confidence from how he ploughed through the heavy conditions clocking one of the fastest last 200m splits of the meeting. A similar track awaits the son of Preferment on Saturday and he maps to be in a similar midfield position.

Dangers: 6. Kapakiri is set up to improve again third up. His first up performance behind Franz Josef and Captain Furai flagged that he had come back well. Four weeks later he darted up the fence to hit the front but his run ended. That was just last Saturday behind two smart imports. That race should prove a strong form reference going forward. Backs up seven days later. 13. Gulf Of Mexico was no match for Strathtay last start. He gets a 3kg weight swing. Doubt he can turn the tables but he’ll run well again. 2. Age Of Sail found the line behind Princess Rhaenys at Eagle Farm first up. She has since won again. 3. Principessa won fifth up last campaign.

How To Play It: Strathtay WIN

Race 6 - 2:00PM THANK YOU ATC MEMBERS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

2. Mogo Magic zipped across to lead at Canterbury last start, gave a kick but tired late with Jedibeel proving too strong at the finish. The four-year-old was at his top for much of the race. Want to give him the chance to bounce back and turn the tables. Gets a 1kg weight swing from that clash. Thought Mogo Magic was exceptional first up when third to The Black Cloud despite burning across to sit on the shoulder of Passeggiata. A thankless task. That was with 60.5kg on his back. The Goulburn-based sprinter is yet to see a heavy track but has handled soft going in the past and he looks well paired with Amy McLucas. Winkers go on for the first time.

Dangers: That’s no knock on 1. Jedibeel. He has won two from three since being gelded. Tricky gate to overcome, especially with many of his obvious threats likely to settle in the first couple. 8. One Destiny has won two of his past three himself with the miss a second to In Flight, who has won again since. Great wet tracker and gets in with 52.5kg after the claim of Molly Bourke who knows the sprinter well. 6. Plundering has finished top three in 12 of his 16 starts. He handles wet ground and typically comes to hand quickly. Just the one trial ahead of his return but he caught the eye. The best of 3. Tristate gives this a shake while respect form Godolphin galloper 11. Zaragoza.

How To Play It: Mogo Magic WIN

Race 7 - 2:35PM RACING FOR GOOD ON JULY 13 HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

8. Wild Botanica looks ready to win. That would replicate what the mare did last campaign when scoring third up. That was at Warwick Farm in midweek company but she put her rivals to the sword late, despite settling three wide outside of the leaders. Like what the four-year-old mare has done in two runs back. She chased home The Black Cloud first up at Randwick over 1000m before finishing third behind In Flight at Rosehill three weeks ago. She settled outside of the leader, hitting the front a long way out. She kept trying all the way to the line but was collared late. In Flight has won again since, so has the runner up One Destiny. Back to mares grade suits.

Dangers: 1. Shezanalister has been set a task first up on a heavy track with 61kg but went to another level last campaign, winning three straight. That’s now five wins from 13 starts. Gives every indication that there is still more to come. Trialled well twice and maps to get the right run. 5. Our Bellagio Miss was chipping into the margin at Randwick last start behind Fleetwood. She needs a lot to go right with her pattern but she loves heavy tracks and has raced with success at Randwick. 7. Molly Nails looks to be building into her campaign, fighting out the finish at Canterbury last start behind Iron Man. Expecting her to come on again from that.

How To Play It: Wild Botanica WIN

Race 8 - 3:15PM JAMES SQUIRE WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)

Taking a punt on 12. Pacific Ruby. Her benchmark rating suggests that she is a little out of her depth on Saturday but this isn’t a deep Listed race. The other significant consideration is that there aren’t many proven heavy trackers. She is. The mare resumed from a 40 week spell at Doomben last start and the lack of market support suggested she’d need the run. After beginning awkwardly she got home well behind Wategos, who subsequently jumped $2.40F in the Eye Liner. That was six weeks ago now. Pacific Ruby wouldn’t be here if the stable didn’t think she was up to the task. This time last year she beat He’s our Bonneval and Barbie’s Fox at Sandown. Big odds. Worth an each way ticket.

Dangers: 3. Iknowastar backs up after giving a sight at Eagle Farm last Saturday. He is a very fit horse now and will give a sight as he always does. Looks well suited to Nash Rawiller and the drop back to 1400m is offset by the likely testing conditions. Don’t think he loves heavy ground but he got through it okay in The Coast at Newcastle. 5. Essonne had to duck back towards the inferior ground in the Civic Stakes last start. Her effort had more merit than the three length margin suggests. 7. King Of the Castle swung widest at Flemington two weeks ago. Made his run with the winner so no excuses. Going well though. 9. Junipal could improve on a heavy track.

How To Play It: Pacific Ruby EACH WAY

Race 9 - 3:50PM CATANACH'S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

8. Elson Boy extended the picket fence to six straight wins last start at Rosehill. The four-year-old jumps in grade again but wouldn’t say this is a great deal harder than the fields he has beaten in his past two starts. He won a deep race at Scone before proving too slippery for Testator Silens three weeks ago. That horse just missed himself in BM88 company on Saturday, starting $3.80. Elson Boy can only win and he still isn’t getting the market respect he deserves. The gelding is as tough as a $2 steak and apprentice jockey Chelsea Hillier knows the sprinter inside out. Let him cruise along out in front, breaking his rivals hearts. Two of his past three wins have been on heavy tracks.

Dangers: The timing looks to be right to push the button and ride 7. With Your Blessing more forward. The blinkers went on third up last campaign at Kembla Grange, he led and bolted in on heavy ground. He left 5. Contemporary in his dust, with four lengths back to second. That was him jump favourite in Listed company at his next start. 1. Bacchanalia gets a pass mark for his June Stakes effort but he has a history of improving with a run under his belt and liked the way he has trialled since. Respect Bjorn Baker’s runner down in weight on a quick turnaround which makes 14. Disneck dangerous.

How To Play It: Elson Boy WIN, 7-8 QUINELLA

Race 10 - 4:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

10. Pure Alpha looks to have so much more to come. The three-year-old looked to get every chance at the midweeks last start, camping in behind a moderate speed, but when he angled into the clear he ran right through the line to win running away. The margin flattered his rivals. More pressure and he’d have won by further. That was on a heavy track. Respect that he jumped $1.80 and that it was just his fourth career start. Sets up perfectly to tackle Saturday company for the first time. The gelding has been given 3.5 weeks between runs to keep him fresh enough to tackle 1400m again. The barrier looks awkward on paper but he should be able to stride across to settle outside of Cool Jakey.

Dangers: 3. Cool Jakey improved sharply second up, just as he did last campaign. That coincided with the blinkers going back on and ridden to find the front. He raced flat third up last time in but that was back onto a good track. Another heavy track should see him hold his form. Loses Nash Rawiller but drops 5kg after the claim of Zac Wadick. 6. Givara is five weeks between runs now but his eye catching first up run sets up the rest of his preparation perfectly. Suited out to 1400m now. 4. Promitto found 1100m too sharp first up but he more than held his own in the run home. Knockout chance. 1. Ang Pow chased home Elson Boy last start and Testator Silens has franked the form since.

How To Play It: Pure Alpha WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting

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