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By Brad Gray

16. Let’s Go Again did it tough in a Provincial Midway qualifier at Gosford last start. The lightly-raced five-year-old wasn’t the best into stride and after hunting through to recover a position, she found herself posted three deep throughout. She was only beaten three lengths despite that. It wasn’t a bad effort. Mogul Monarch ran second and has since franked the form by winning at the midweeks on Wednesday. Her only run on a heavy track was last campaign where she beat Mogul Monarch at Kembla Grange. The daughter of Turffontein, for trainer Kerry Parker, has appeared once in Midway company in the past and failed but she may have come to the end of her campaign. Carries 53kg on Tuesday, should settle closer and she is a proven wet tracker.

Dangers: 1. Mahogany Girl is at the opposite end of the weights with her benchmark rating rising after a string of wins. She held off Well Timed to win her Provincial Midway qualifier at Hawkesbury last start. Jumps 6.5kg but did carry 60kg to victory first up. 4. So Good So Cool broke a run of outs in Midway company two weeks ago but can make cases for a few that finished behind him. Including roughie 18. Artiebett. She’s dangerous if she makes the field. Hit the line hard and a wet track looks no issue. 7. Glounthaune didn’t get a lot of room late. He just might want a dry track though. 12. Monfelicity would come into play on a heavy surface, negating the fact that 1300m is too short for her to show her best.

How To Play It: Let’s Go Again EACH WAY

2. Nepotism was excellent on debut in the Todman Stakes three weeks ago, giving away race experience. The Brutal colt, from the family of Black Caviar and All Too Hard, found himself buried away on the fence yet pushed his way into the clear to be beaten a length by Tentryris with Wodeton in second. That’s Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond form. The Hawkes-trained two-year-old kept finding the line despite being momentarily held up in the run. With natural improvement, and the step out to 1400m, he can make a statement ahead of next week Sires’. The tempo of a 1400m race should see him hold a more prominent position from another soft gate. The unknown is the wet track.

Dangers: 10. Savvy Hallie has to be a query at 1400m but the form around her reads well. She was beaten by the subsequent Black Opal winner in King Of Pop on debut, having covered ground, before a slow getaway saw her settle a long way back in the Reisling. The race shape suited run on horses but only Tempted and Inkaruna had faster closing splits. Marhoona ran second. 9. Next Jen flattened out to win well at Newcastle on debut over 1300m, on soft ground. Can build off that. Her damn won out to 1900m so there’s plenty of stamina in her pedigree. 3. Sanctified gives the impression that 1400m suits now, having found the line in the Black Opal last start. He’s also bred to get this trip comfortably. 1. Quietly Arrogant needs to bounce back from his Golden Slipper failure.

How To Play It: Nepotism WIN

7. Tenbury Wells has been well beaten in the Hobartville and the Randwick Guineas in two runs back but can find excuses for both performances. The market didn’t expect much, jumping $151. The sprint home first up over 1400m saw him left flatfooted. He was warming up through the line. Out to the mile he had the blinkers applied, led and went too keen in front, knocking up to be beaten 12 lengths. The blinkers come back off third up out to 2000m, back in grade. Alysha Collett has been aboard in both of his wins, one of them over this trip on heavy ground. He ticks the wet track box too. It was only last spring that he started a $5 chance in a Gloaming. Anything goes in this race. Worth a punt at odds.

Dangers: 4. King Of Thunder brings winning form into this. In fact he won the same 1900m BM78 as Wymark did before winning the Tulloch at his next start. The merit in that victory lies in that he was only second up out to 1900m against the older horses. Entitled to be favourite. 12. War Ribbon pulled up with heat stress after failing as an easing favourite at Kembla Grange last start. Prior to that he won a Class 1 at Gosford by seven lengths on a soft track. Handles wet and he stays. 2. Golden Century has the grounding of a NZ Derby. He missed the start which proved costly but was strong home. 5. Confetti Garden was no match for Shanwah five weeks ago but that form line was franked in the Alister Clark.

How To Play It: Tenbury Wells EACH WAY

1. Ceolwulf has to lump 59.5kg over 2000m and do it on a wet track. That’s no easy task but he is a classy animal. Back up horses on wet tracks invariably run well. No horse has ever carried his weight to win this race in the past. He’d create history. Joe Pride has indicated that this is the best way to get him to be peaking for the Queen Elizabeth. The four-year-old has never won over 2000m but he ran second in a Rosehill Guineas behind Riff Rocket and over the spring, when only third up he ran second to Eliyass in fast time in the Kingston Town. He also handled a heavy track when second in an ATC Derby. Was narrowly beaten in the G1 George Ryder seven days ago.

Dangers: Talented import 4. Zarakem is the best weighted horse in the race given his rating. He looked to travel well in the Verry Elleegant first up for Ciaron Maher but didn’t let down. A wet track could see him improve out to 2000m, back in grade. 2. Bois D’ Argent didn’t come up in two runs over the spring. He was tipped straight out. He had to tag Pride Of Jenni first up in the Peter Young Stakes and stuck on well to run third, with Zardozi running on into second. That was a return to form. The grey loves wet ground. 5. Hezashocka loves wet ground too. Gets out quickly to 2000m second up on a testing track but like how he found the line in the Ajax. 7. Palmetto is hard fit and holding his form well.

How To Play It: Ceolwulf WIN

4. Scarlet Oak looks desperate for a wet track. The four-year-old was soft in betting late first up in the Millie Fox, running third to Firestorm having peaked on her run. That saw her jump a $21 chance in the G1 Coolmore Classic two weeks ago. Barrier 2 turned out to be a negative. She was shuffled back early and had no option but to make her run closest to the inside of any runner in the race. The winners at that Rosehill meeting were all coming up the middle of the track. Want to be forgiving of the seven length margin. It was also a high-rating Coolmore run in slick time. Third up now she looks set to peak and her record on soft and heavy tracks reads 4:3-1-0. We should find out where she is at on Tuesday with conditions to suit.

Dangers: It’s a strong crop of three-year-old fillies this season and although 14. Harlem Queen was a beaten favourite first up, she maintained her reputation as a filly of promise. Love the gear change of blinkers first time to help her through the flat spot she hits in the run. Was powering through the line late once she balanced up. Maps to be last. Wet looks fine. 7. Lazzura was flattered by the race shape in the Phar Lap last start, camping outside of a slowly run race but she was dominant and has improved since last campaign where both Harlem Queen and 15. Snow In May, a last start winner of the Canberra Guineas, had her covered. 12. Clear Thinking jumps from 1200m to 1500m. 9. Arctic Glamour would be on top if it was dry.

How To Play It: Scarlet Oak EACH WAY

Nothing has even got close to 1. Treasurethe Moment in her past four wins. She won the Wakeful over 2000m in the spring before dominating the VRC Oaks. The Matt Laurie-trained filly has returned just as well, if not better, this time back. She settled outside the lead over 1400m first up at Caulfield, winning comfortably, before justifying her short quote in the Kewney second up out to the mile. The only unknown on Tuesday is the wet track. She has won on soft ground in the past but it was a Geelong maiden and it was a Soft 5. Her benchmark rating soars above her rivals. Star filly and the picket fence should remain intact after the Vinery.

Dangers: 2. Movin Out wasn’t suited by a sprint home in the Phar Lap Stakes in her first Australian run. Her splits home were deceptively quick, as was the case with most runners in the field. The former Kiwi ran third in the 10000 Guineas in New Zealand at just her third start, on a track rated a Soft 7. Should handle the ground and the key to sorting out Chris Waller’s runners may lie with the original booking of James McDonald, who jumped off stablemate 5. Declichy Boulevard. The knock is going from a slow run 1400m first up straight out to 2000m on a heavy track. comes through the Phar Lap and was forced back to the inferior inside. She has already won out to 2000m. 7. Verona Rose is undefeated and should relish further while 8. Canny Queen covered ground in the Kembla Grange Classic.

How To Play It: Treasurethe Moment WIN

2. Mazu is racing like he wants 1200m and a wet track. That sees him well placed on third up with the weather forecast in his favour. This six-year-old found 1000m on good tracks a touch too sharp first and second up but he hasn’t been beaten far. He kept finding the line in a sprint home in the Challenge Stakes three weeks ago. He has a great record at Rosehill from eaelier in his career, should tag a hot speed from the inside draw and is well paired again with Nash Rawiller. The 59.5kg is a leveller but he is a genuine weight for age sprinter. The more rain that falls the shorter he is likely to be in betting given that his record on heavy tracks reads 8:5-1-1.

Dangers: 11. Punch Lane started $6 in a Theo Marks first up over the spring, sticking on okay late having led. He did mix his form a touch in four runs but he didn’t strike a genuine wet track. That could bring him into play at odds given what he did in Queensland on heavy tracks in July last year. 3. Uncommon James is racing his way back into form and backs up from the Galaxy. There wasn’t a lot between him and Mazu in the Challenge. Unknown on anything worse than a Soft 6. Have to respect the dominance of 15. General Salute’s first up win after a 41 weeks break. Carries the 53kg minimum. 13. Espionage will appreciate a drop back in grade.

How To Play It: Mazu EACH WAY

Globetrotting seven-year-old 1. Dubai Honour returns to Australia having won the Ranvet and Queen Elizabeth in 2023 for William Haggas. Now a couple of years older he has relished the mile and a half, hence kicking off in a Tancred. He has added a Group One win in Frace to his name since he last travelled to Sydney. Last campaign he was luckless in Newcastle in preparation for a tilt at the Hong Kong Vase, hitting the line hard to run a luckless second. Tom Marquand has a lot of confidence in Dubai Honour. The barrier looks perfect and the prospect of a rain-affected track only enhances his claims. A lofty benchmark rating of 123 puts him in an elite category. Via Sistina is 124. The next highest here is 114.

Dangers: 4. Duke De Sessa will make his own luck and handles wet ground. He was flying over the spring, winning a Caulfield Cup by a margin. He returned a surprise winner over the mile before being touched off by Middle Earth out to 2000m second up. The 2400m is his pet trip and this is his autumn grand final. 2. Vauban produced a brilliant turn of foot first up over 2000m in the Sky High, holding off 3. Arapaho. Even better suited out to 2400m. Lindermann has franked that form line since. Two starts ago 5. Zarir started $4.10 against Dubai Honour's $8.40 in France. Dubai Honour beat him four lengths. By all reports, 14. River Of Stars has settled into Australian life quickly.

How To Play It: Dubai Honour WIN

10. Ducasse had his chance in the Ajax Stakes last start but there looks to have been a big overcorrection price-wise. The four-year-old was sent around a $3.20 favourite two weeks ago and after stalking the speed, he boxed away to be beaten 2.6 lengths. That was on the back of an impressive first up win as a gelding. The point of difference heading into Tuesday is the wet track. He loves soft and heavy ground. The fresh win was his first away from rain-affected going. Pending rainfall the barrier mightn’t mean much come the second last race. He doesn’t have a jockey at time of writing but he has been scratched from the Muswellbrook Gold Cup already which hints that he’ll line up here.

Dangers: 2. Amenable’s second up record might look ordinary on paper but three of his five second up runs have been in Group One company. It’s deceptive. He just missed first up in the Newcastle Stakes behind 7. Sandpaper but the wet track can see him turn the tables. The last time he race on heavy ground, if the track gets a lot of rain, he ran a narrow second to Magic Time in an All Aged Stakes this time last year. 4. Willaidow bounced back to his best in the Ajax, riding the speed. He handles all going. The wide draw suits. 6. New Endeavour caught the eye late in that Ajax. His best performance in some time. The market has identified that, however. 5. Encap tends to improve second up.

How To Play It: Ducasse EACH WAY

Suspect 1400m could be the sweet spot for 4. Kibou. He shouldn’t have lost too many admirers first up despite finishing second at Kembla Grange to General Salute. Respect that he jumped a well backed $3.10 chance. He sat outside the leader and was picked off late. It’s been 79 weeks since the five-year-old won but keen to see him out to this trip second up and getting back onto a wet track. His maiden win came on a heavy track and he put 3.3 lengths on his rivals. He also won an Up And Coming, beating Golden Mile, on a Soft 6 at Rosehill. He’ll have no shortage of company up front here with speed engaged but like the wide draw which gives his regular rider Regan Bayliss options come the last race.

Dangers: 9. Rhapsody Chic is a proven first up horse (4:2-1-1) and loves wet tracks. His record reads 8:5-0-1 on soft and heavy ground. He maps to be giving away a big head start but the race promises to be truly run. 13. Well Timed peaked on his run first up. This is the run he needs ahead of the Provincial Midway Championships Final but Nash Rawiller jumps back aboard. Should be in the finish again. 3. Green Fly has needed the run first up in the past but he too loves wet ground. 16. Thunderlips is well placed over 1400m first up. The wet track is the little niggle with 6. Les Vampires if he backs up from Muswellbrook as is a testing 1400m with 8. Cool Jakey.

How To Play It: Kibou EACH WAY

All the fields, form and replays for Stakes day at Rosehill