By Brad Gray
Race 1 - 12:30PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES) |
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5. The Extreme Cat is already a Midway winner at Rosehill. It was just last campaign. The caveat is that it was over 1400m. However, the Nathan Doyle-trained gelding has been effective over shorter trips in the past. The key looks to be dry tracks which he’ll get on Saturday with the hot weather forecast. It took the five-year-old three runs to find winning form last time in but he raced on heavy tracks first and second up. As soon he struck good tracks, he won two straight. Forget that The Extreme Cat failed the last time he was at the races back in September. It was a soft track and he pulled up three out of five lame. He has had two trials ahead of his return. He’s only had one previously. That suggests he could be a touch more forward. Has trialled well too.
Dangers: Isn’t confidence an amazing thing with race horses? 9. Tenderize was winless for 19 starts. He then scrambles home at Canterbury to make it two career wins. At his subsequent start at Warwick Farm he goes straight to the front again and wins by a space. Braith Nock maintains the ride and will be out to adopt the same tactics. 12. Let’s Go Again resumed over 900m last preparation before beating Mogul Monarch out to 1200m second up at Kembla Grange. It’s a set up that has worked before. He disappointed in Midway before spelling. Perhaps he’d come to the end of his preparation. Carries just 52.5kg. 1. Salisano has been racing in slightly harder company at her past three starts. Was potentially flattered last start by a lack of early pressure. 4. Huon next best.
How To Play It: The Extreme Cat WIN
Race 2 - 1:05PM BISLEY WORKWEAR HANDICAP (1900 METRES) |
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The blinkers going back on looks a significant gear change for 5. Father’s Day. The front-running stayer asserted control over 2000m at Randwick last start but got the staggers late. He perhaps lacked concentration late without the shades on. He was also five weeks between his first and second up runs. Despite that, he was firm in betting. Third up he should be just about ready and Rachel King jumps back aboard. She has been aboard in both of the gelding’s Australian wins. The blinkers went back on second up last campaign and it saw him improve sharply to run Golden Path to a narrow margin. A lot of the attention will be on the two three-year-old prospects but they’ll know they’re in a race with hard nut Father’s Day running along out in front.
Dangers: 8. Perfect Play looks to bring strong Melbourne form lines into this. He was only beaten two lengths by odds on favourite Revelare two weeks ago at Flemington, who has now won five straight races. Would have liked to have seen Prefect Play a touch stronger late given the easy time he had through the first half. He was beaten a similar margin by subsequent Sydney winner Kings Valley three back. This race has been used with success in the past as a springboard to the Tulloch. Last year it was won by Wymark. John O’Shea also ran Benaud here in 2022. He’ll be hoping 9. King Of Thunder follows a similar path. He did enough first up over 1400m. 7. Kapakiri comes back in trip but he found winning form fourth up last campaign. Another three-year-old in 11. Hurtsville Zagreb has won at short odds in lesser fields to kick off his career.
How To Play It: Father’s Day WIN
Race 3 - 1:40PM TAB PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200 METRES) |
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The lack of market support for 1. West Of Swindon first up told the story. He needed the run. Despite that he still ran second in the Silver Slipper, no match for Beiwcht with Wodeton in third. That looks a stronger form reference than the Skyline Stakes. West Of Swindon missed the Todman last Saturday with a minor setback, which is never ideal, particularly for two-year-olds. However, the Hawkes stable press on with the colt’s autumn campaign. On debut he was beaten by the barrier in the Golden Gift when second to North England. He’s shown talent from the get-go and lines up at just start three with more to come. The son of Wootton Bassett has been back to the trials since last start to bridge the three weeks between runs. Maps perfectly in a race without a lot of speed on paper.
Dangers: 4. Skyhook should have won the Skyline. He was disappointed for a run in the straight and had to switch back to hard the fence, the inferior going. The winner Rivellino swept home over the top with an unimpeded run. It was a sprint home so can be forgiving when assessing the bunched finish. 10. Valedictorian was beaten less than a length himself there and could get another easy time in front. He too is open to further improvement. 8. State Visit drove late to overcome a midrace slowdown at Canterbury to win on debut. The performance was better than the margin suggests, clocking the fastest last 200m split of the meeting. A positive sign for a two-year-old on debut over 1250m. 7. Kilman was green on debut at Warwick Farm, and defied his pedigree, yet was still too good. 6. United States is spoken about highly but needs to deliver on the promise.
How To Play It: West Of Swindon WIN
Race 4 - 2:15PM RACING AND SPORTS MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200 METRES) |
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9. Dream Side had to be dragged back to the tail of the field on debut at Canterbury. She cut the corner, and having momentarily been held up, hit the line locked together with Marhoona. Can make a case that she should have won. That’s an important form reference, recently upgraded with Marhoona since running a brave second to Tempted in the Reisling Stakes on Saturday. Autumn Blonde ran third at Canterbury and was beaten a length in the Sweet Embrace and should have finished closer. The knock is the five weeks between runs without an official trial. Just have to trust that’s by design. Josh Parr rode the Trapeze Artist filly, trained by Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou, in both of her trials prior to her debut. The pair should settle in a perfect trailing position from the draw.
Dangers: 5. Strada Varenna looks a sharp filly but how flattered was she by zipping around Canterbury on debut? Of the seven winners that night, six settled first or second in the run. She didn’t smash the clock either. Respect that 11. Gambers jumped a heavily backed favourite in that race and after handing up the front, was chipping away into the margin late beaten two lengths. 2. Artistic Venture was sandwiched between runners in a messy finish to the Sweet Embrace. Backmarkers were flattered by the race shape but the Inglis Millennium form continues to hold up. Draws 14 of 14 but finds James McDonald. Godolphin filly 10. Custom had no luck on debut before fighting out the finish with State Visit at Canterbury. Back to her own sex here.
How To Play It: Dream Side EACH WAY
Race 5 - 2:50PM ASAHI SUPER DRY SKY HIGH STAKES (2000 METRES) |
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1. Lindermann may have been flattered by the race shapes in the Apollo Stakes and Verry Elleegant but there are no Via Sistinas of Fangirls in this field. There are some talented stayers engaged but they won’t be peaking until they get out to 2400m in the Tancred and even two miles in the Sydney Cup. This is a stepping stone. The 2000m is Lindermann’s sweet spot and Saturday is his best chance to win over the autumn before tackling an Australian Cup. In his two previous runs over the Rosehill 2000m he won the Rosehill Guineas before winning this same race 12 months ago by four lengths, as an odds on favourite. On that occasion he did get his preferred soft going but he handles all conditions. Certainly well enough to still win this. Nash Rawiller looks to get complete control from in front too.
Dangers: 2. Arapaho has been beaten a length by Lindermann in two runs back. Like the way he has been building through the line. He again faces the prospect of chasing down Lindermann in a sit-sprint. In his favour is the step out to 2000m and that he maps to stalk the favourite from the inside gate. 6. Kinesiology meets two genuine weight for age horses but also has a sense of timing about him third up. Our Anchorage and Palmetto have both franked the form since the Parramatta Cup. Market moves on 5. Vauban will be significant. He started $8 in a Melbourne Cup for Willie Mullins the last time he raced. You’d think he need a truly run 2000m to fight out the finish given his stamina but it’s Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, so reluctant to dismiss him. He’s too well found in betting to back him at the moment though.
How To Play It: Lindermann WIN
Race 6 - 3:25PM CHANDON PHAR LAP STAKES (1500 METRES) |
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12. Declichy Boulevard was powering through the line in the G1 Surround Stakes last start. She should have finished a clear third behind Lady Shenanadoah and Lady Of Camelot if not for traffic in the straight. That pair are favourite for the Coolmore. It’s a strong form reference given the time the race was run in and that should top off Declichy Boulevard perfectly for third up out to 1500m. This is a race Chris Waller and James McDonald have owned recently, combining to win four of the past six runnings. Waller has trained seven of the past 10 winners. Declichy Boulevard might not have the superstar qualities of her stablemate Lady Shenanadoah but she remains the horse to beat. Looks a tricky race to map without an obvious leader but we’ll leave that to J-Mac.
Dangers: 9. Lazzura was rock solid in defeat also through the Surround. She was no match for the quinella but held down third and the map looks more straightforward for her having drawn 2. 8. Powers Of Opal never got into the race in the Surround from out the back. Want to forgive her that. She was excellent second up last campaign against a bias. Ran consecutive seconds to Treasurethe Moment in the Wakeful and VRC Oaks before spelling. It’s a very different set up for her having drawn barrier 1. 1. Wonder Boy kept finding the line over 1400m at Flemington last start and was a month between runs. Finds Nash Rawiller and 1500m looks to suit. Held his own against the older sprinters in the Standish first up. Keep an eye on 10. Real Class late.
How To Play It: Declichy Boulevard WIN
Race 7 - 4:00PM IKON SERVICES MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES (1100 METRES) |
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Wouldn’t recommend pinning your hopes on backmarkers over the Rosehill 1100m as a long term punting strategy, particularly when they are favourite. However, we’ll make an exception with 7. Pisanello. There looks to be a lot of speed drawn in and out which should set it up for the Godolphin sprinter. Insurrection led an Oakleigh Plate last start and he has drawn widest. Pisanello won three from three last campaign and was brilliant winning first up, albeit at the midweeks over 1000m. He is at his devastating best on dry tracks so conditions on Saturday should suit and the four-year-old has looked sharp in two trials. With 53kg on his best he sets up to get last shot. Zac Lloyd looks an astute booking. He jumps off Time To Boogie to ride Pisanello.
Dangers: 6. Time To Boogie doesn’t have to lead but he won’t want to be pinned away on the fence with the leaders coming back into his lap. He experienced that at Canterbury second up when favourite. The alternative is being eye balled in front. Important decisions need to be made by Regan Bayliss in the first 300 metres. 2. Insurrection may burn across and take running down. He went too fast in the Oakleigh Plate setting it up for Jimmysstar to rush home. Reluctant to leave out 11. Perspiration even knowing that he has been superior on soft tracks in his career to date. In his defence, has only had five starts. Love the way he won the Heritage Stakes beating Gatsby’s before spelling. Not sure where 4. Eagle Nest gets to from the draw.
How To Play It: Pisanello WIN
Race 8 - 4:35PM COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500 METRES) |
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4. Lady Shenandoah is a two time Group One winning filly, both against her own age. Chris Waller is typically conservative with the placement of his most talented three-year-olds over the autumn yet is happy to line up against the older mares, and from a wide gate. That speaks volumes in itself. The daughter of Snitzel jumped $1.30 in the Surround two weeks ago. The margin was only narrow with a gallant Lady Of Camelot making her earn the win but that doesn’t detract from the merit of her performance. She smashed the clock, marginally outside of Trapeze Artist’s 1400m Randwick track record. There was three lengths back to third. We know the step out to 1500m holds no fears for Lady Shenandoah given how she won the Flight Stakes out to the mile over the spring. James McDonald has two speed horses either side. Assuming a clean getaway, he can come across with that duo to seek cover.
Dangers: 6. Lady Of Camelot gets just a minor swing at the weights but deserves a tonne of respect for her last start performance. She defied a big late drift and emphatically answered the obvious query heading into that race, whether she was too brilliant for 1400m. There was little between the last 200m splits of Lady Shenandoah and Lady Of Camelot so 1500m looks fine too. Typhoon Tracy was the last filly to win this race in 2009. 1. Amelia’s Jewel carries 58kg but recent winners of this race have overcome big weights. Just last year Zougotcha carried 57kg to victory. We didn’t learn much from Amelia’s Jewel winning first up where they walked early but we know she has come back well and should gain confidence from that. 2. Olentia’s best form is at Rosehill. She’ll appreciate a truly run race. She’s found two very slowly run races this time back. 5. Marble Arch ran a career best two weeks ago. A repeat of that and she’s in the finish.
How To Play It: Lady Shenandoah WIN
Race 9 - 5:15PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS AJAX STAKES (1500 METRES) |
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1. Pericles has to carry 59kg but it’s hard to ignore his second up form (5:3-2-0). James McDonald rides too. The five-year-old travelled into the Futurity Stakes like he’d be somewhere in the finish but looked to blow out in condition late, beaten three lengths by Mr Brightside and Tom Kitten. That’s Group One weight for age form. Second up over the spring he carried 59kg over the 1500m at Moonee Valley and after settling outside of the leader, pulled away to win by 2.5 lengths. There is a lot of similarities to Saturday’s set up. That was as an odds on favourite. We’re getting a much better price here. The preparation prior he improved sharply second up to bump into Mr Brightside again, beaten 1.5 lengths. The son of Street Boss has also raced well at Rosehill in the past.
Dangers: 5. New Energy racing style invites bad luck but he’s had his share in his nine Australian runs. It masks his level of talent. His two previous first up runs for Ciaron Maher have been excellent, charging home in some of the fastest close splits of the meeting. That was despite being held up in the latest. This time back he resumes over 1500m instead of 1300m. Tick. 4. Freedom Rally’s form ties in neatly with Pericles. The barrier doesn’t help but Tommy Berry has ridden him well in the past. 11. Ducasse returned a winner as a gelding. There’s more depth here. 14. West Of Africa’s last start sixth behind Ducasse was better than it reads on paper. He ran the fastest splits in the race from the 800m to the 200m before peaking on his run. As he was entitled to being five weeks between runs.
How To Play It: Pericles WIN
Race 10 - 5:55PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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9. Harlem Queen charged through the grades over the spring to find herself in a G1 Flight Stakes third up. That was on the back of two provincial wins. She ran second to Lady Shenandoah. Something had to, and it was three lengths away, but Snow In May ran third, Powers Of Opal fourth and Lazzura fifth. It was a deep race. Nathan Doyle’s placement with his talented filly is curious first up, missing a Surround Stakes opting to kick off over 1400m in benchmark company. The daughter of Brutal tried hard in the Spring Champion and VRC Oaks at the backend of last campaign but may have proven too brilliant for the staying trips. She certainly looked sharp in her most recent trial, taking ground off her stablemate Private Harry, the early favourite for the Galaxy. James McDonald has been booked for Saturday.
Dangers: The way 12. Les Vampires dropped off in the straight before coming again through the line suggested that Adam Hyeronimus should have let the four-year-old roll in front, as opposed to turn the race into a sprint home. Of course that’s easy to say with the benefit of hindsight and Les Vampire was on the sidelines for 42 weeks prior so ultimately he did right by the horse. Anyways, he looks well set up out to 1400m now, stripping fitter second up. 1. Glint Of Silver gets a 3kg weight swing on Les Vampire and they hit the line locked together. Glint Of Silver had spent 61 weeks on the sidelines prior. 8. Swiss Exile wasn’t far away in fourth. That’s a red flag as a form reference typically. 14. French Endeavour never got into the race in the Guy Walter given how it was run. Forget that.
How To Play It: Harlem Queen WIN
All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Rosehill