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By Brad Gray

8. Lady Ichikawa is the only last start winner in the field. It was a Class 1 at Newcastle but the win was better than the margin suggests. The tempo came out in the middle stages. The improving mare had to be sharp late to beat Trafalgar Square who ran fourth in a deeper Midway than this earlier in her preparation. That’s a neat form line for Saturday’s contest as far as a tie in. The Sam Kavanagh-trained five-year-old has had nine starts now, taking eight to break her maiden, but she is now chasing three straight. Finds the right race to progress to city company and maps to get the right run, which could go a long way in determining the winner given how evenly matched the field is on paper. Hard race but lean her way.

Dangers: Luck has deserted 1. Conrad in both runs back. He’s had to slam on the handbrake in the straight and went to the line untested. The latest of those was in a Randwick Midway behind Mad Darcey. It was a messy race and he wasn’t the only hard luck story. 3. African Daisy was completely friendless in betting late at the midweeks. The market got it right as the mare dropped out to be beaten a long way. She pulled up lame. She is better than that but that’s been built into her price. 4. Putt For Dough isn’t a noted first up performer and can improve sharply as he has done in the past. 10. Direct Fire boxed on well at Kembla Grange first up. It was a busy finish but he’ll come on from that.

How To Play It: Lady Ichikawa WIN

1. Confess Our Dreams was sent around a $1.70 favourite at Warwick Farm three weeks ago and justified the price. The margin was only narrow but she was always in control. The four-year-old wasn’t the best into stride but recovered to camp in behind the speed. From there James McDonald angled away from the inside of the track and let her class do the rest. Job done. She is better than a midweek class of sprinter. That’s now four wins from eight starts for the daughter of Shalaa, with still more to come. Expecting her to revert back to her front running role on Saturday given she has draw barrier 2 and looking at the make up of the field with Passeggiata missing the start at her past two. Short odds again but she is entitled to be.

Dangers: 4. Angel Fund is the obvious threat given she was the one cutting down Confess Our Dreams’ winning margin last start. There was enough pressure for her in the middle stages to flash home and that’s exactly what she did. Gets a 1kg weight swing and can settle closer from the inside gate. She is two from two second up. 7. Not That Easy ended last campaign in career best form and there was a lot to like about her return behind the talented Pisanello at Warwick Farm first up. She clocked the fastest last 200m split of the meeting. Suited out to 1100m and has knockout claims. Last start Midway winner 3. Mad Darcey has beaten home her stablemate Angel Fund in their two previous clashes. 2. Passeggiata ‘lacked desire’ according to the jockey Tim Clark after failing last start.

How To Play It: Confess Our Dreams WIN

1. Atmospheric Rock will appreciate a drop back to Highway company against Class 3 rivals. At his past two starts he has contested a deep BM88 won by Moravia when a $5.50 chance beaten three lengths, while last start he was out of his depth in the Sydney Stakes. His starting price of $201 was reflective of his chances and he dropped out to be well held. The real pointer to his chances here his how well he ran in Highways first and second up. He won impressively over 1100m with Jason Collett in the saddle carrying 62.5kg before racing without luck behind Melody Again subsequently. He is a proven weight carrier and Collett jumps back abord. He has ridden him in two of his three career wins.

Dangers: 4. Zelgaria was suited by the pressure at Ipswich last start but he savaged the line late to make it two wins on the bounce. He contested a Highway at Hawkesbury back in May where he was no match for 5. Gentileschi but that was over 1500m. The set up for Gentileschi is very different here, striking it first up over a sprint trip and drawn off the track. If Zelgaria can’t beat her home here he never will. That’s no knock on the talent of Gentileschi. She raced her way through to a Queensland Oaks last campaign, being a daughter of Dundeel. Has trialled well, flattening off a touch in the second hitout. Respect her quality and upside. 11. Fourcade stuck on bravely in a fast run Highway three starts back and has held his form since.

How To Play It: Atmospheric Rock WIN

5. Kadavar is ready to win. The four-year-old’s timing looks perfect out to 2400m now fourth up. He was no match for State Of America at Warwick Farm last start. The winner broke the track record and has since won just as impressively in Saturday company. Kadavar was three weeks between runs and with Fleet Commander running along in the early stages, he never had the chance to travel from just in behind the speed. The gelding stuck on to run second, managing to get past Fleet Commander over the concluding stages. Given Fleet Commander has subsequently won, Kadavar meets him 2kg better off. Joao Moreira jumps aboard now and he draws barrier 1. That should see him able to grab the back of Fleet Commander in the straight. No excuses now.

Dangers: 2. Fleet Commander crawled through the first half of the race at the midweeks last start so was entitled to find a kick but he won well. That coincided with the import’s first run over 2400m since arriving in Australia. Adding further merit was that it was hard work for leaders at that meeting with the headwind. Expect him to at least hold that form now. 3. Roaring Engine improved sharply second up straight out to 2400m, racing well above his expectations in the market as a $61 chance. May slide across to settle outside of the leader. A good position for his grinding style. 10. Tajanis was sent around $1.75 when fourth to Fleet Commander last start. He never got into the race given the lack of early pressure and had to take off early. 7. Misterkipchoge might be looking for 2400m but he’s running out of chances.

How To Play It: Kadavar WIN

10. Gilded Water is an import having his first run in Australia for Ciaron Maher. The four-year-old is owned by The King and tipping Maher would love to hit the ground running for his newest, and most high profile, owner. Resuming over 1800m will give the son of Fastnet Rock the chance to do exactly that. Formerly trained by Harry Eustace, the gelding has only had four starts, winning his maiden in the UK in emphatic fashion back in May over 2011 at Chepstow. He put 7.5 lengths on his rivals. That saw him start $6 at Ascot but he raced a touch flat, albeit in a race that has produced eight subsequent winners. He looked sharp in a recent Warwick Farm trial and Maher knows the family, being a half-brother to Circle Of Fire.

Dangers: 4. Unique Ambition gave a sight from in front in the Angst Stakes. That isn’t her natural settling position. She’ll more likely be ridden with cover out to 1800m third up. The run had merit, only run down late after she cranked up the pressure in the middle stages. 7. Concello is dangerous at odds. She is two from two second up and jumps from 1300m in a slowly run race to 1800m which promises to be truly run. Keep her safe. Didn’t expect 3. Naval Commission to be sharp enough first up over 1400m to fight out the finish, and nor did the market, but he went down in a photo to Sir Artie. Likely to flatten out now but the 1800m offsets that. 5. Morryl Moral and 6. Soldier Of Rome rate mentions.

How To Play It: Gilded Water WIN

9. Tupakara didn’t get much room on debut in the Gimcrack Stakes on debut. The daughter of Trapeze Artist was tightened a number of times in the straight. She had more to offer through the line. That performance was as good as any of her rivals also coming through the Gimcrack and Breeders’ Plate at Randwick and was on the back of one soft trial. That was five weeks ago now. She profiled like she’d take plenty of benefit from that run. That was evidenced by the way she has trialled since. Tom Sherry rode her in a Warwick Farm heat and although it was only a field of four, she jumped in front, settled and cruised through the line to win by 3.4 lengths. Sherry didn’t move on her late. It was an impressive piece of work.

Dangers: 2. North England jumped on terms in the Breeders’ before being urged to find the front. He mustered quickly and did race a touch keenly in the middle stages, before giving a kick like the winner in the straight. It took a stablemate King Kirk to clock the fifth quickest last 600m split of the meeting to run him down. The son of Farnan has since won a Hawkesbury trial in fast time. No debutant has won this race in it’s five runnings with 5. West Of Swindon out to buck that trend. He looked a natural when winning a Warwick Farm trial in near identical time to Tupakara that morning. 6. O’Ole showed good speed in the Gimcrack to cross from a wide draw. Respect any market confidence for 4. Extractor.

How To Play It: Tupakara WIN

1. Belclare improved sharply as a $26 chance to win the Invitation two weeks ago but that victory shouldn’t be underestimated. What Magic Time has done throughout her career sees her deserve respect in the market compared to the one-off spike of Belcare but Belcare beat her fair and square. A repeat of that and she wins this too. The former Kiwi had the blinkers come off which saw her find a rhythm out in front and there was simply no catching her, doing it at both ends. Where she has drawn she’ll find the top again. Tyler Schiller stays aboard which is significant given her obvious quirks. Her last 200m was a fraction outside of the quickest in the race. After leading. It was a big win. The trade off is a significantly shorter price.

Dangers: 2. Magic Time landed in a perfect spot from a wide gate in the Invitation but was left without an excuse. Perhaps there is a touch more to come now third up. She won the G1 All Aged Stakes third up over the autumn, a career best performance. That was on a testing heavy track though. Will need another clever ride to offset the draw. 3. Olentia closed off okay behind Belclare. She too produced a career peak third up last campaign. That was on dry track. Has won three from five at Rosehill. Can see her bouncing back in a big way. 7. Rose Bloom is a French import now with Chris Waller. Was Group One placed as a two-year-old over the mile. 8. Miss Hellfire can run a cheeky race despite being out of her grade.

How To Play It: Belclare WIN

3. Lindermann produced a four length win in the Sky High Stakes third up over the autumn. He looks to be trending towards a similar peak on Saturday. Last campaign was his first as a gelding and it saw the Rosehill Guineas winner rediscover his form. Chris Waller has found a perfect target for the son of Lonhro against the five-year-olds. He had no chance to figure in the finish over 1400m from a wide gate with 59kg first up. It was a non-event. He then took full advantage of barrier 1 in the Craven Plate, shouldering into the clear to run down the leader. The lack of pressure saw those on top of the speed flattered but he scrambled home with improvement to come. Maps to get his chance to win again. Surprised he isn’t shorter.

Dangers: 1. Attrition settled outside of the leader in the Hill Stakes, clearing out with Kovalica late score an authoritative. He ran time and there was a margin to third. Only has to hold that form to be in the finish again. Has been freshened since by design winning a Camperdown trial in good style trial. He draws perfectly too. There looks to be a lot of speed on paper. 11. Territory Express will relish that prospect. His two previous runs over 1800m were at the end of his preparations and they weren’t run to suit. Still has to answer that question but his strength at the end of a mile suggests it shouldn’t stop him. 16. Kingswood ripped clear to win the Coongy. He’s now two from two for trainer Gavin Bedggood.

How To Play It: Lindermann WIN

6. Fire Star has really turned a corner in a career. The son of Deep Field has promised plenty from day one but had a few manners he needed to iron out. He went winless for nine starts after breaking his maiden on debut, and jumped $3 or shorter in five of those. It’s been a slow burn but he has jumped out of the ground at his past two starts. He ripped clear to beat odds on favourite Bonita Queen two starts ago at Warwick Farm before proving that was no fluke, again at Warwick Farm. In that latest win he was just as arrogant. We can trust him now. That win was from outside of the leader and out to 1200m for the first time. Would have liked a softer gate but his versatility gives Tommy Berry options.

Dangers: 9. Midnight Opal had his first run as a gelding at Warwick Farm through the same race as Fire Star. He has nearly five lengths to turnaround on the winner but he had no luck at all in the run, going to the line hard held. Gets a 3kg weight swing. Draws to get a soft run and looks well paired with Jason Collett. 3. Iron Man was a beaten $2.50 favourite last Saturday but he had excuses. The anchor drop in the middle stages saw the leader pinch it. It wasn’t an easy meeting to make ground from back and wide either. 1. Snapback profiles as the potential big improver. He resumed from a 44 week break at the midweeks and went too fast in front, knocking up late. Raced in top company as a three-year-old. 4. Stromboli can improve.

How To Play It: Fire Star WIN

3. French Endeavour gets her chance to turn the tables on 6. Need Some Luck from Warwick Farm two weeks ago. She was held up momentarily in the straight but ultimately had her chance, coming up just short. The Matt Smith-trained mare gets a 4.5kg weight swing after the claim of Zac Wadick and boasts a strong SP profile form that race. It looks a straightforward map, touch wood, for her too. She should lob into a stalking position behind her two threats, which the market has identified in Rock Empire and Need Some Luck, who is expected to roll forward from the draw. French Endeavour was a dominant winner second up against the fillies and mares, flagging that she has returned as well as ever. Smith also accepted for the Hot Danish Stakes but elects to keep her in benchmark company for now. Can only run well.

Dangers: 8. Need Some Luck, ironically, hadn’t had much fortune in a couple of runs back before winning at Warwick Farm. Even then he had to sit wide off good early speed. He pulled out enough to score a determined win. That could give him the confidence to go right on with it now. 1. Rock Empire is also coming through the midweeks in winning form. He has had a six week freshen since winning out to the mile at Warwick Farm. The margin was narrow but he overcame a slow getaway to get home as an odds on favourite. That’s now three wins from six starts. Has trialled well since. 2. Chica Mojito comes back from two runs at 1600m to 1400m, which perhaps isn’t ideal, but she also drops sharply in grade. The barrier does 8. Congregation no favours but he looks ready to win.

How To Play It: French Endeavour WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting