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Brad Gray's Tips For Rosehill Gardens (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:35AM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

5. Dawn Service lived up to his price tag at Hawksbury last start. The $1.4m colt, out of Sunlight, did it at both ends to break his maiden in style at Hawkesbury. He ran along at a good gallop in front before quickening impressively off that to gap his rivals. There was four lengths back to second and eight lengths back to third. The runner up had previously come through the same form reference at the midweeks and there was little between them. That just emphasises the improvement Dawn Service made from start one to start two. That coincided with getting out to 1300m. The overall time was as impressive as the winning margin. He ran significantly faster time than the other two 1300m races on the day. There doesn't look to be a lot of pressure on paper on Saturday so he should get his chance to dictate.

Dangers: 7. Autumn Glow cost $1.8m as a filly! Some expensive horse flesh going around in the opening race. She is a half sister to In The Congo and caught the eye in a recent Rosehill trial, winning her heat impressively and smashing the clock herself. Has to bring that to the races and gives away experience but she was backed into an odds on quote on Wednesday before being scratched. Expectations appear to be high and being a daughter of The Autumn Sun, kicking off over 1300m looks to suit. 3. Getafix peaked on his run first up in a high rating race behind Mayfair and Mawjood. Has trialled well since, being four weeks between runs. 1. Just Party and 2. Imperial Force were given an easy time in the same trial ahead of their returns but both were talented two-year-olds.

How To Play It: Dawn Service WIN

Race 2 - 12:10PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

1. Peace Officer is close to another win. The five-year-old settled midfield in Midway company two weeks ago, chipping away into the margin late. He was beaten a length by The Extreme Cat. Peace Officer meets the winner slightly worse off at the weights with Clarry Conners opting against the claim, instead putting Nash Rawiller back on. Nash has ridden the horse with success in the past. The step out to 1500m suits too. Last start Peace Officer was 1600m back to 1400m. That told at the finish. He just ran out of straight but nothing finished stronger than him. The rest of the week in Sydney looks clear which is significant for this galloper as he doesn’t handle wet ground. Given where The Extreme Cat has drawn, he gets the chance to turn the tables.

Dangers: 3. The Extreme Cat is going to need a clever ride to offset the gate but he again gets the services of James McDonald. A ground-saving ride won him the race a fortnight ago. That was on the back of a dominant Hawkesbury win. His late strength suggested that 1500m wouldn’t be an issue. Chases three straight wins. 7. Vintage Choice has now had three runs for Joe Ible. His latest was by far the best of them and he should have just about won at Warwick Farm. He never got clear. He is an import with talent and that run suggested that he could be coming right again having lost his way. 4. Forecaster split The Extreme Cat and Peace Officer two weeks ago. Was sent around $26 but should hold that form now. 2. Dr Evil is racing well at this level but may have been flattered by a run of heavy tracks.

How To Play It: Peace Officer WIN

Race 3 - 12:45PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

3. Lisztomania lost nothing in defeat four weeks ago at Rosehill. He simply isn’t an 1100m horse. He lost the speed of the race in the early stages, settling last before making a wide, sustained run to get home into second. It was a fantastic effort. That is not an easy run to make over the Rosehill 1100m. He perhaps just peaked on his run the last 100m. That should have him at peak fitness now third up and getting out to 1300m is more his distance range. We’ve seen the winner of that Highway in Lonhro’s Queen win again to frank the form. The six-year-old was just as impressive first up when not beaten far by Clear Thinking. His pattern means he loses more than he wins but his record in Highways now reads six starts for four minor placings and a fourth. He’ll win one shortly.

Dangers: 14. Intervarsity didn’t get much luck in Lonhro’s Queen’s second Highway win two weeks ago. The four-year-old looked to find a perfect stalking position entering the straight but she couldn’t angle into the clear and went to the line with more to offer. Respect how firm she was in betting to jump a $2.60 favourite. That was on the back of two dominant Muswellbrook wins in her first preparation. 15. Super Norwest comes through that same Highway, riding the speed having settled outside of the leader. She wasn’t beaten far and will make her own luck again. 16. Giving Delight was an eye-catcher through that same race despite being sent around at $51. Has knockout claims. 2. Rajnish will run well again.

How To Play It: Lisztomania WIN

Race 4 - 1:20PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

10. Piastri comes off a career best win last start. That was at Caulfield three weeks ago. The four-year-old covered ground, travelling three wide outside of the leaders but still kicked clear to score decisively. He put a margin on the runner up Wallenda who we can use as a benchmark when it comes to Sydney form. A repeat of that performance sees Piastri hard to beat. He has to come back slightly in trip to 1100m and go the opposite direction for the first time in his seven start career but he finally draws a gate this time back so should stalk a genuine speed. No excuses from there. Two starts ago he boxed on well behind Marble Nine who subsequently ran third in the Bletchingly behind Recommendation and Semillion.

Dangers: 1. Way To The Stars is dynamite fresh having won four from five first up. The miss was a close up second in the Flat Knacker at Albury. Nash Rawiller got along particularly well with the sprinter last campaign with a career best performance coming over this track and trip back in November. He pays the penalty for his record with 62.5kg. He is one dimensional so it perhaps come down to the amount of pressure he is force to absorb early. 8. Lost returned from a bleed with a dominant midweek win. She raced keenly but still had too much firepower late. There’s more depth here but James McDonald sticks. 4. Thunderlips might find the 1100m a touch sharp but like the way he ended last campaign.

How To Play It: Piastri WIN

Race 5 - 1:55PM KIA ORA PRAGUE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Sequestered didn’t get the split when she needed it first up. When looking to angle out towards the best ground she was held up momentarily before working home well. Her closing splits were marginally the quickest in the race. She lost nothing in defeat. The market didn’t like her at all late. Much prefer the set up for the Godolphin mare on Saturday, getting back onto firmer footing, creeping out to 1400m and coming back to mares company. Nash Rawiller has ridden her with success in the past. The other pointer to her chances is how dynamic she was second up last campaign. It was the peak performance of her career to date and she gets an identical set up to replicate that. If she does, she’ll win. This isn’t a deep race.

Dangers: 8. I Am Famous led at a crawl last start at Rosehill over this track and trip. She won but given the sections she got away with early, she was entitled to. Hard to trust that form given the shape of the race but this doesn’t map to be a high pressure race again. The well-bred grey has relished the front-running role at her past two starts. 9. Nanshe gets a 2kg weight swing on I Am Famous for a half length defeat and continues to race well. Gets blinkers first time. 2. Hellavadancer was a touch disappointing in that same race in the context of her $2.80 starting price. That was on the back of a luckless second prior. 10. Until Valhalla can be hit and miss but she did put nearly five lengths on Nanshi back in June.

How To Play It: Sequestered WIN

Race 6 - 2:30PM SYDNEY MARKETS ROSEBUD (1100 METRES)

4. Tarpaulin is getting out to a tempting price now. The Harry Angel colt improves with each start. He won second up to break his maiden, scoring with arrogance before building on that last start at Randwick. He gapped his rivals to win by even further. There was 2.5L back to third and nearly nine lengths back to third. Granted, he now jumps into Listed company but he has a grounding for it. If there is a niggle with his recent form it’s that it has all been on heavy tracks. He does come from a family of great wet trackers, being a half brother to Aft Cabin, but what confronts him on Saturday at Rosehill won’t be a bone dry track. There will still be some juice in it. Should have the speed use the draw to settle in the second pair.

Dangers: 2. Gatsby’s was the two-year-old on everybody’s lips after he won at Canterbury on debut. He was being talked about as a Golden Slipper smokey. All he had to do was justify the odds on quote and win the Pago Pago but he raced a touch flat, having come to the end of his first preparation. His two trials ahead of his return have been outstanding. The map looks tricky. In contrast, the map looks great for 8. Brave One having drawn barrier 1. He trialled alongside Gatsby’s recently to bridge the six weeks between runs. He beat a subsequent winner in Mayfair on debut. 6. Clear Proof won at $101 on debut but second and third from that race have come out and won well since. He is a smart colt and that was no fluke! 1. Shangri La Express has to lump 60kg.

How To Play It: Tarpaulin WIN

Race 7 - 3:05PM TOYOTA MATERIAL HANDLING HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. Terra Mater took five starts to break her maiden. Since then she has won six of her past 10 as she scoots through the grades. Every preperation she has come back better and on the strength of her trials, there’s indications that she can go forward again this time back. The five-year-old has won her past two first up, albeit in easier grade but she gets a perfect set up on the weekend to win again. Nash Rawiller has a terrific association with the daughter of Wandjina having ridden her five times for four wins. She draws a lovely gate to stalk what should be a genuine tempo. She trucked Nash to the line in her most recent Rosehill trial. It was an impressive piece of work. Looks ready to explode.

Dangers: 2. Felix Majestic will be ridden handlebars down from the outset. He can run along at a clip and drag his rivals out of their comfort zone. Thought he stuck on bravely two weeks ago when unable to cross Much Much Better. Don’t mind the drop back to 1200m. The track rating is significant for him. The drier the better. 4. Cavalier Charles will need a truly run race to get home over the top of his rivals given where he has drawn but he broke a run of outs in style at Grafton last start. Has raced well at Rosehill in the past. Forget the start prior where he didn’t handle the heavy track. 5. Kazou pulled up lame after failing last start through the same race as Felix Majestic. She won’t have it her own way on top of the speed.

How To Play It: Terra Mater WIN

Race 8 - 3:45PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

10. Amor Victorious was so impressive when winning first and second up last campaign. The five-year-old elevated to a completely new level. That run of form saw him start $5 in the G2 Ajax Stakes third up. He was undone in a high-pressure race. There is a distinct lack of speed in Saturday’s race on paper. Perhaps Hinged will slide forward to keep him company but she won’t apply the blowtorch. She isn’t that style of mare. That gives Amor Victorious the potential scenario of complete control and he showed last preparation how devastating he can be with that set up. Josh Parr rode him first up to victory last time in and has been on in both of his trials where he has impressed, winning the latest. Has been heavily backed in betting already. Easy to see why.

Dangers: 6. Tom Kitten returns a gelding. He’ll want to get the start right having drawn barrier 1 on Saturday, otherwise he risks being buried away on the fence. He didn’t have much go right for him over the autumn which included a luckless fourth in the G1 Randwick Guineas. Has trialled sweetly ahead of his return. James McDonald rides. 4. Hinged hasn’t won for 128 weeks but she hasn’t raced out of Group company since she was a two year old! She’s now six. 3. Ceolwulf also resumes as a gelding. Not sure where he fits in distance-wise but he placed in Group Ones behind Riff Rocket over the autumn. 11. Chorlton Lane is better than what he showed last start.

How To Play It: Amor Victorious WIN

Race 9 - 4:20PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1900 METRES)

2. Unanimous pulled up with cardiac arrythmia after failing at Rosehill last start. He didn’t even finish the race. He was $2.60 at times in betting for that race before drifting late. Don’t be too quick to dismiss the chances of this seven-year-old on the back of one run where he had a genuine excuse. We often see horses immediately bounce back from that condition. The reason he was so well found was his run of good form in deep races. He pinned his ears back to run third to Aramco the start prior. Like the prospect of him drawing out a touch this week as it allows the jockey time to roll across. Amazingly he has drawn barrier 1 or barrier 2 in all five runs back. That has seen him buried away on the fence on more than one occasion.

Dangers: It might also pay to forgive 15. All In The Mind. He was said to have never travelled in the Forbes Cup, failing as a firm $3.20 chance. He beat the subsequent winner Osman at Canterbury the start prior. Can mix his form but there’s enough in the early price to take a punt. 11. Monarchs Brae settled midfield at Rosehill last start yet still rallied to fight out the finish. Expect him to go back to his customary front-running role on Saturday. There isn’t a lot of pressure on paper despite the big field. 16. Matusalem beat Monarchs Brae. There was three lengths back to third. Only has to hod that form to be heard to beat again. 1. Etna Rosso was great first up at Randwick chasing home 9. Enotis. He can only build off that, but the draw does him no favours.

How To Play It: Unanimous EACH WAY, Box Quinella 2,15,11

Race 10 - 4:55PM TAB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

15. Lord Of Biscay should have finished closed when fourth to Iron Man a month ago. He didn’t angle into the clear until it was too late. Like the way the import ran through the line. That was over 1200m. Willaidow has franked that form line. When trained in the UK his two wins came over 1400m and 1700m. Saturday’s trip suits better. He is a lightly-raced five-year-old with just six starts to his name. Dylan Gibbons is booked to ride second up, and he rode him in one of his trials ahead of that first run in Australia. Drawn barrier 1 come the last might be something to keep an eye on with recent Rosehill history suggesting jockeys could want to edge off the fence with the rail in the True. Looks a miler worth following at this level.

Dangers: 8. Up And Under found his way into every punter’s blackbook in the country after his luckless first up run. That was the five-year-old’s first run as a gelding. He had a lot to offer in the straight but never got the chance to let down. It was a messy race with a number of runners coming away with hard luck stories. Stays at 1400m. 16. Noble Conqueror came from an impossible spot at Canterbury last start to run on into third. Drops 4kg up slightly in grade. 4. Cadetship got to the best part of the Randwick track three weeks ago but it was an encouraging return from the underrated galloper. 6. Roma Avenue pulled up with cardiac arrythmia after failing first up. Can bounce back from that while 13. No Drama has hit the ground running for Matt Dale.

How To Play It: Lord Of Biscay WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting

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