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Brad Gray's Tips For Rosehill Gardens (Saturday)

By Brad Gray

Race 1 - 11:15AM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. Mawjood resumed as a gelding at Warwick Farm first up, winning well over 1100m. He covered ground, which can be done from the chute start at the track, yet still put a length margin on Tarpaulin. The win was even better on the clock than it was to the eye. It was comfortably the quickest of the four 1100m races ran at that meeting. That’s a key indicator for two-year-olds. The son of Tassort looks well above average. The runner up Tarpaulin has since won just as impressively himself, knocking off a midweek maiden himself in dominant fashion. He was backed into an odds on favourite too. Expect Mayfair to take up the running which should give Zac Lloyd the chance to slide across and settle outside of the lead.

Dangers: 7. Mergeila looks a threat due to the great unknown. There was talk of her targeting a Percy Sykes Stakes over the autumn. That suggests that the Chris Waller stable have always held her in high regard. Has trialled well. Draws soft. Ignore that James McDonald isn’t riding her, as he couldn’t get down to 54kg. McDonald is instead booked for 3. Mayfair. Looked to have his chance on debut at Randwick and the third horse Winning Proposal somewhat ties the form into Mawjood. They both won on the same day at Warwick Farm with Mawjood running much faster time. Mayfair does look well set up out to 1200m on an improving track, however. 1. Getafix comes back a gelding. He did a lot wrong on debut but was still too good for hir rivals. That prompted a start in the Todman Stakes.

How To Play It: Mawjood WIN

Race 2 - 11:50AM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

1. Lisztomania presented like the winner in Highway Handicap company first up. He just couldn’t match it with the race fit filly Clear Thinking over the final 100m once she angled into the clear. There is no shame in that. Tanglewood finished third with a length back to fourth. The five-year-old is the best horse here, as his weight suggests, but that’s not to say he doesn’t have obstacles to overcome. The drop back to 1100m from 1200m two weeks ago isn’t ideal, nor is the wide gate, even though he is a backmarker, then throw into the mix the full 62kg he’ll be forced to carry with Ash Morgan in the saddle. Morgan rode him first up. If everything falls into place for him, he profiles to have too much firepower late for Class 2 horses. Just don’t expect it to be an easy watch.

Dangers: There is no official trial to judge 5. Palazzo Prince off but Rod Northam wouldn’t be running first up in a Highway Handicap if the four-year-old wasn’t ready. Like what he did in his first campaign, overcoming trouble to win his second start at Dubbo before holding his own in a Highway back in February. It was a race set up for the closers in Belvedere Boys and Sharp Shock. 7. Zarizatycoon debuted over 1300m, leading all the way at Narromine, before repeating the dose at Mudgee at his second start. Back further in trip to 1100m perhaps isn’t ideal but he is still untapped. 2. Consenza is on the eight day backup having chased home the unbeaten Joiselle. Promises to be strong late and gets winkers first time.

How To Play It: Lisztomania WIN

Race 3 - 12:25PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

2. Silvanito has had five runs for Nathan Doyle, knocking on the door for his first win for his new yard. He comes off two seconds behind Captain Furai and then Elouyou. Doubt he’d have beaten the winner three weeks ago given his dominance but getting shuffled back in the run cost him finishing closer. Doyle doesn’t opt for a claiming apprentice this week. He has booked James McDonald. Prior to those two efforts at Rosehill over 1400m, the gelding chased home Elson Boy in a hot race at Scone. First up he chased home Commemorative. His only recent blemish was in Midway company second up. If the four-year-old runs to his recent form, he looks the horse to beat. Draws to settle closer and he’ll appreciate getting back onto a slightly drier track.

Dangers: The best of 15. Union Army would beat these. The Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou-trained galloper maps to be giving away a big start but he can produce a powerful finish. He rushed straight past Pereille when winning at Rosehill back in January before he lost his way. 1. Navy Blood has been consistently in the finish in Midway company all preparation. Doubt that changes here. Ran second to Emmadella over this track and trip two starts ago where he loomed to win but peaked late being five weeks between runs. 4. Diamond Model didn’t find the inside fast lane at Canterbury last start and it proved costly. Drawn awkwardly but Nash Rawiller sticks. 14. Sumo Star carries just 51kg after the claim and maps to potentially get on speed favours.

How To Play It: Silvanito WIN

Race 4 - 1:00PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

This looks 1. Pure Alpha’s race to lose. He isn’t the biggest horse around so the 61kg is a leveller but he looks better than BM72 company. The Chris Waller-trained galloper didn’t have any excuses last start at Randwick over 1400m having settled outside of the leader, simply beaten by a better horse on the day in Rhapsody Chic. However, most of his rivals in this bring midweek form. Pure Alpha was in midweek company himself two starts ago, jumped an odds on favourite and had too much class. James McDonald jumps back on and he draws perfectly to stalk the speed behind the Waterhouse and Bott pair. Like the slight progression out to 1500m now too. He has been racing like he’d relish a touch further. Well found in early betting but he is entitled to be.

Dangers: 9. Imposant has shown flashes of brilliance in her six starts so far. She comes off an impressive Newcastle win, albeit in Class 1 company. Drops 3kg from that up in grade. She failed in her only previous run in city company but had excuses (was said to be making a respiratory noise post race). 8. Mostro has to turn the tables on 2. Headley Grange from last start but he gets a 2kg weight swing and will appreciate a drying track. He hasn’t looked comfortable in his two recent runs on heavy tracks. Can improve sharply. Headley Grange maps to be last but he produced a big win at Warwick Farm last start with 61kg on his back. 5. Mickey’s Medal comes through that same form race and maps to get his chance again. 3. Until Valhalla can mix her form.

How To Play It: Pure Alpha WIN

Race 5 - 1:35PM ATC MEMBERS PETER SIMPSON HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

4. Jewellery is yet to produce a bad run this campaign. The lightly-raced Godolphin mare kept closing last start at Caulfield in BM84 company against the boys. Prior to that she charged home over the top to win well against the mares, again at Caulfield. Like the set up for her on Saturday switching back to Sydney way, coming back to her own sex once more. First up she just missed behind Spring Lee at Canterbury and second up she caught the eye at Scone in a deep race behind Elson Boy. The four-year-old has the deepest form lines of any of her rivals. Zac Lloyd has ridden Jewellery with success in the past and although she tends to drift back in her races, the barrier should see her park up midfield.

Dangers: 1. Junqueira didn’t get a lot room in the Gai Waterhouse Classic last start at Ipswich. Back in grade here and respect the booking of James McDonald by the O’Shea and Charlton stable. She’ll settle out the back, however. A lack of pressure up front could be an issue but she is classy on her day. 7. Wild Botanica can roll forward from the wide gate. Continues to race well without winning. Her record suggests that she handles heavy tracks but suspect she’ll appreciate getting back onto soft going. The was money for 2. Audette in that same race last start and she improved on her prior runs. Might be turning the corner and she too maps to get on speed favours. 8. Llanddwyn got the breaks last start and found the fast lane.

How To Play It: Jewellery WIN

Race 6 - 2:10PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

9. In Flight made it four wins from five starts this preparation last Saturday at Randwick. She chased a genuine speed with 60kg on her back and put her rivals to the sword late. Loved her late strength. Her last 200m was the second quickest across the meeting. Trainer Joe Pride elects to back the filly up seven days later. She goes up in grade here and faces the older horses but the trade off is dropping a whopping 7.5kg. Lightweight rider Jay Ford can stick with the filly having won three in a row on the daughter of Flying Artie. The barrier looks a touch tricky on paper but expect Ford to be positive. You typically don’t want to be too far away over the Rosehill 1100m. Looks beautifully placed again.

Dangers: 2. Contemporary will be powering home at the finish. The four-year-old finds himself in career best form. He appreciated the tempo at Randwick last start but surged clear to score a decisive win. Nash Rawiller has been aboard in his past two wins. He’ll have In Flight looking over her shoulder late. 3. Iowna Merc hasn’t been the most reliable sprinter but he is better than what he showed last start. Respect that he jumped $6 in Group Three company. His two runs prior read well for this. There hasn’t been much between Iowna Merc and 4. Quick Tempo at their two recent clashes. Has raced well off freshens in the past. 7. Jedibeel is very genuine while respect any market confidence for French import 1. Sivka Burka.

How To Play It: In Flight WIN

Race 7 - 2:45PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (2400 METRES)

3. Kureder absorbed plenty of early pressure at Rosehill three weeks ago in the Stayer’s Cup. The leader dropped off at the point of the turn leaving him in front a long way from home. His stablemate Speycaster sat back and picked him off late, producing a career best performance. Kureder was brave in defeat and the only on speed survivor. Despite being beaten by nearly two lengths there was a further four lengths back to third. That’ll toughen him up for another 2400m contest. Prior to that he was no match for his stablemate Strathtay but raced like he wanted further than 2000m, gave him 4.5kg and didn’t find the right part of the Rosehill track. The four-year-old has jumped $6 at his past two starts. Not sure why now he is double figure odds.

Dangers: 2. Age Of Sail gets out to 2400m for the first time in Australia. He has three placings over two miles when trained in the UK. He’ll relish the extra trip. Scouted a wide course at Randwick last start, running Strathtay to less than a length. Age Of Sail was only second up there and was a month between runs. 1. Strathtay’s hike in the weights is offset by the 3kg claim. He was flushed wide last start yet was still too strong late, landing a betting plunge. Has to repeat that out to 2400m now, on a slightly drier track and without a senior rider. No knock on the form he finds himself in though. 5. Loco split the pair at Randwick last start, returning to form. He ran fourth in a SA Derby as a three-year-old.

How To Play It: Kureder WIN

Race 8 - 3:25PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS WINTER CHALLENGE (1500 METRES)

11. War Eternal steps into Listed company from benchmark grade but the five-year-old is racing at the top of his game. He has won two of his past three and was terrific in defeat two starts ago, making late ground in a race that was dominated by those on speed. This is the first time the son of Pierro backs up within a week but if that doesn’t bother him, and he holds his form, he profiles as the horse to beat dropping down the 53kg. That’s 5.5kg less than he carried to victory at Randwick last Saturday. It took him a few strides to build into the race but once he found that gear, he raced away at the finish. The 1500m is just about the perfect trip for him too. Can use the draw to be midfield. If he can get the back of Tamerlane at any point in the straight, he should take him where he needs to go.

Dangers: 6. King Of The Castle was luckless in defeat in the Winter Stakes last start. The is an obvious form reference for this. He got chopped out for a run at a key moment in the straight. Particularly given he was 1600m back to 1400m. Back out slightly in trip suits. Can turn the tables on Tamerlane with even luck. Zac Lloyd mentioned post-race that 1. Tamerlane appreciated more room to build into the race himself last start. There is no Iknowastar here so could find himself in front. Cops another 1.5kg but he is a strong, powerful gelding. 13. Testator Silens didn’t have much go right last Saturday behind War Eternal. The beaten margin doesn’t tell the story. A slow getaway was just the beginning. Include 4. Blaze A Trail and 5. More Secrets in wider exotics at odds.

How To Play It: War Eternal WIN

Race 9 - 4:05PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

3. Chorlton Lane is too good for these if he produces his best. There is a sizeable ‘if’ lingering over that though as he comes into this on the back of a disappointing run at Caulfield three weeks ago. The wash up from that performance was that he didn’t handle the soft track. That was the jockey’s feedback. If was the first time the four-year-old had raced on a surface that wasn’t rated good or a synthetic track. That has to be a concern here but the stable would be sending him north with the knowledge that Rosehill will be rain-affected in some capacity on Saturday, even if it continues to improve. Ciaron Maher has found James McDonald and the gelding is already a two-time winner at Rosehill. Should get the race run to suit too with plenty of speed engaged.

Dangers: 8. Elson Boy just keeps fronting up. He absorbed pressure at Randwick last start yet never gave it away. The picket fence has come to an end but he lost nothing in defeat. The problem for him is 5. Much Much Better is here again, as is the equally speedy 6. Felix Majestic. There is no easy lead. 9. With Your Blessing looked to get his chance when third behind Contemporary two weeks ago. Has to turn the tables on Elson Boy. Hasn’t been able to replicate his big Kembla win from last campaign in six runs since. We know he is capable on his day, however. Felix Majestic wants the track to keep improving. The first up form of 1. Robusto is a little deceptive. He has a great Rosehill record and loves the 1300m trip.

How To Play It: Chorlton Lane WIN

Race 10 - 4:40PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. Willaidow finds James McDonald for his return. The five-year-old has only had 11 starts, winning four times. That included a big first up win last campaign, albeit in BM64 company at Gosford. Trainer Marc Conners targeted the Provincial Midway series thereafter. He was beaten less than a length by Territory Express to qualify for the final. On the way through he ran well behind Gringotts in what turned out to be a deep form race. He jumped $4.40 second favourite. In the final a slow getaway proved costly. He overraced soon after and pulled his way to outside of the leader. He stuck on well to be beaten four lengths. Tipped out after that the son of Shamus Award has looked sharp in two trials. Barrier 1 perhaps isn’t ideal but there doesn’t look to be a stack of pressure coming from outside draws despite the big field.

Dangers: 15. Union Army will be giving away a big start to Willaidow with his get-back style but he can produce a powerful finish when right. He beat Pereille when winning at Rosehill back in January before he lost his way in two runs. Has trialled well for Rory Hutchings on two occasions ahead of his return. 2. Able Willie can mix his form too but Nash Rawiller appears to have the key to him. He has ridden him seven times for two wins and three minor placings. He was beaten in a photo by Kazou three weeks ago. Just needs luck angling into the clear at the right time from the low gate. 11. Pokerjack won against the pattern at Canterbury last start at double figure odds. Perhaps it was no fluke. 8. Sir Artie tends to improve after a run but has the talent to figure. 3. King Of Naples is trending the right way this time back.

How To Play It: Willaidow WIN

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Rosehill meeting

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