By Ray Hickson
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $1.5 million Schweppes All Aged Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
1. Private Eye (Joe Pride): Hasn’t been able to get into his races in two starts since he led the Lightning and was edged out by Imperatriz. Just no favours at all in the Galaxy after he drew wide and went back and stayed wide. Complete forgive. Looked sharp with James McDonald on board in his subsequent trial and 1400m holds no fears. His Kryptonite could be if the track softens up but otherwise he’s a winning chance.
2. Golden Mile (James Cummings): Enjoyed a solid spring campaign culminating in that third in the Golden Eagle but did very little in two runs back prior to a marked improvement in the George Ryder. He was rightly a $51 chance there though. His racing style will see him press forward and if he heads off Buffalo River for the lead they’ll be going warp speed so will likely be looking for a trailing spot. Take him on trust, on his best efforts he can show up somewhere.
3. Buenos Noches (Matthew Smith): He’s been disappointing since his solid return in the Expressway though he did hit the line without having a winning chance in the TJ Smith. He drew the outside there and spent a lot of time going back to last so to run on and be beaten 2.2 lengths is not a failure. If he can take some advantage of the draw and be midfield in a fast run race that’d be a good recipe for him. He’s good enough if he recaptures his best.
4. Bandersnatch (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Not sure he’s a genuine weight-for-age performer but he does show up now and then as he did chasing Another Wil home in the Doncaster Prelude. Last win was in that race a year ago. He’s another go forward horse drawn off the track, could box on for a placing but would need everything to go his way.
5. Buffalo River (Michael Moroney): Designated leader it seems for this race and he’s been mixing it with the likes of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside. He hasn’t been beating them but he’s been around the mark a couple of lengths off them. Couldn’t find the lead last start so we’ll forgive him that, if he finds the front this time around he could give some cheek.
6. Airman (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes): Seen nothing to suggest he’s a weight-for-age class sprinter yet though he has shown plenty of ability. Solid first-up in the Maurice McCarten before not the easiest of runs in the Star Kingdom where he finished midfield beaten three lengths. Perhaps 1400m will suit but happy to oppose at this level.
7. Amenable (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Seemed to have his chance second-up in the George Ryder and perhaps coming back that 100m will be in his favour. What’s not is the outside barrier so he’ll be banking on getting into some kind of trailing position with a good amount of speed drawn inside him. He’s a handy galloper and did run a cheeky race in the Memsie back in the spring but place chances best.
8. Chain Of Lightning (Peter Moody & Katherine Coleman): She’s been a revelation in the past month backing up her Birthday Card win against the mares with that gutsy on pace win in the TJ Smith against a number of her opposition here. Clearly in career best form and drawn to effect again, she’s won at 1400m and the way the Moody/Coleman team has fired this carnival you wouldn’t doubt she’s a chance.
9. Espiona (Chris Waller): A shade unlucky in the TJ but that’s standard for a horse like her, she gets back and needs the breaks to produce her big finish. When she gets it, she’s effective. Won The Invitation over this course in the spring and her two runs prior to the TJ at Group 1 level were excellent. There’s no doubt she’s a major player in this race, you’re just banking on her getting clear at the right time.
10. Sunshine In Paris (Annabel Neasham): Had the back of I Wish I Win in the run in the TJ and just couldn’t go with him late, peaking on the run but only beaten three-quarters of a length. She should be at her top now after two runs back from a decent break, jockey knows her well and she’s drawn to do no work early this time. She’s entitled to run well here and gets her chance to produce the kind of performance she's promised this prep.
11. Magic Time (Grahame Begg): Excuses in both runs back from a spell and she shapes as a big improver given her credentials at 1400m. Gate one might not have been a huge help to her in the TJ, she tried to go with the winner on the inside but just didn’t pick up and peaked late. Group 1 winner at 1400m before a spell and unlucky in the Invitation here prior to that. Likely runs the best race of her prep here and that could be good enough to give her a show.
12. Southport Tycoon (Ciaron Maher): The wild card of the race given we haven’t seen him since he won the Australian Guineas beating Veight (George Ryder winner) and Riff Rocket (Rosehill Guineas and Australian Derby winner) in a huge form race. He’s trialled twice since then and missed the Doncaster with the wet track. He looks smart, ideally drawn and commands respect. Small query if the rain arrives.
13. Encap (Gary Portelli): Just the one win in 11 starts but a lot of ‘what ifs’ about a couple of his recent runs including the Randwick Guineas, where he should have at least run a place, and the George Ryder where he found himself way too far back. He found the line well enough there and is racing in super form overall. Who’s to say he’s not capable of breaking through if he has even luck.
14. Tiz Invincible (Ciaron Maher): Landed in an impossible position in the George Ryder and did not a bad job to make some ground into a midfield finish. Will need to make some use of barrier one to be at least midfield and give herself a chance. Unsure how she’s going this time in as she’s had a mix of bad luck from wide gates or through other circumstances. Place hopes.
SPEED MAP: Everyone expects Buffalo River to be the leader and that looks most likely, Golden Mile and Amenable have to look to slide across onto the speed too and Bandersnatch and Private Eye could also use them to roll over. Of those drawn inside Tiz Invincible and Chain Of Lightning can hold spots handy and make those outside do some work. Imagine Southport Tycoon won't be too far away. Should be a genuine enough gallop.
SELECTIONS:
10 SUNSHINE IN PARIS
12 Southport Tycoon
9 Espiona
1 Private Eye
All the fields, form and replays for Saturday's Randwick meeting