Latest News

By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $1.5 million Alan Brown Stakes (1400m) at Rosehill on Saturday.

1. Lindermann (Chris Waller): Group 1 winner as a three-year-old and found his form again in the autumn winning the Sky High here at 2000m before failing off a wide gate in the Doncaster. Unbeaten at Rosehill but he’s not a noted first-up performer and the wide barrier makes the job that much harder being a natural on pace horse. There’s a chance he won’t run from that gate anyway.

2. Arapaho (Bjorn Baker): Another Group 1 winner but he’s been sparingly raced since that Tancred Stakes win in March 2023 with only four subsequent runs. Had a short autumn campaign and resumes at a trip a long way short of his best so imagine he will need the run and probably another one before getting to a more suitable race.

3. Here To Shock (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Doesn’t get a lot of accolades but he’s won 10 from 32 and earned his Big Dance ticket winning the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle a few weeks back. Sat right on speed there and wore down the leader under some vintage Nash Rawiller riding. He’s drawn well in the big field and should get the right run in the race again. Gives away a bit of weight to some smart ones further down the page but you know exactly what you’re getting with him.

4. Amenable (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Only won the two from 17 but it’s fair to say he hasn’t had a lot of luck when he’s needed it. Game in defeat when runner-up in the Group 1 All Aged back in the autumn and was again brave in the Stradbroke, both off very wide gates. Even effort when solid in the market in the Bill Ritchie a few weeks ago so he will be fitter but his problem is the barrier so he’s going to need a whole lot of luck.

Encap (Pic: Steve Hart)

5. Semana (Ciaron Maher): Can’t describe her second-up flop in the Golden Pendant as anything other than disappointing. She just didn’t seem to want to be there from the moment the gates opened. If you can forgive that her first-up fourth in the Group 1 Winx Stakes reads very well. As do her Group 1 placings earlier in the year. She can make use of barrier one and be in the first half and on her best efforts she’s in the mix.

6. Rustic Steel (Kris Lees): Acceptable first-up run in the Bill Ritchie, settling back and working home along the fence beaten 3.6 lengths. He’ll be fitter for that and his best form is good enough to say if he’s in the finish somewhere it’s no surprise. Ran well in the Doncaster and his last win was only back in March in the Newcastle Stakes where he led all the way. Seems a bit overs on that best form but will need to be right on his game all the same.

7. Belclare (Bjorn Baker): Former Kiwi mare who went a lot faster than expected first-up in the Sheraco a month ago with the saddle slipping slightly as the race went on. So no surprise she was reeled in comfortably. Historically she took a run or two to find her best and she will be fitter with a tickover trial last week. Drawn to get her chance to improve but to be fair she probably needs to show it before you can be confident.

8. Converge (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Two time Group 1 winner who has been a bit hit and miss the past year or so with his best effort a second to Just Folk in Brisbane in June. As he’s aged he seems to take a run or two to hit the ground and from that gate he’ll go right back and look to be running on.

9. Encap (Gary Portelli): Consistent type who notched his second career win in the Theo Marks Stakes last month where he came with a strong burst from midfield. In his previous win he beat Ceolwulf and Tom Kitten, last week’s Epsom quinella. Has been back to the trials since that second-up win and he’s come up with a gate that will mean he does no work early. Couldn’t leave him out of the chances.

10. Gringotts (Ciaron Maher): Little doubt he should have won the Bill Ritchie first-up, held up for runs while the winner was getting a saloon passage and a break on him then charged to go under by the bob of the head. Yet to run a bad race and he’s going to be very well fancied to win this, noting the Big Dance is his target in a few weeks. Draw gives Tommy Berry all the options he could want and he’s entitled to be favourite and the horse to beat.

11. Terra Mater (Jarrod Austin): A shade on the under rated side, this mare has worked through the grades impressively in the past 12 months and isn’t out of place in this event after proving too good for the mares in the Mona Lisa and the Tibbie at her last two, earning valuable black type. Missed a place twice in 17 starts, so she’s a reliable mare and it would be no shock to see her right in the finish.

12. Iknowastar (Bjorn Baker): Front-running sprinter-miler who doesn’t have a great first-up record but that might be changing as he was run down late by Waterford when resuming at this track last time in. He didn’t finish out of the top three in six more starts, though won only one of them, and he certainly signalled some intent with a runaway barrier trial win leading into this. He’s going to look to lead and run them along and you know he’ll give you a good sight.

13. Phearson (Brad Widdup): Imagine he’s not taking his place from the wide gate, yet another one, but it’s fair to say things haven’t really gone in his favour in his two runs since a game third behind Joliestar when resuming. If he happens to run he’ll be doing it tough from that outside alley.

14. Territory Express (Paul Niceforo): Provincial-Midway Championships winner who still has a bit to learn as he regularly gives away a start, something that cost him in two runs in Brisbane before going for a spell. From his wide gate he has no choice but to go back and look for cover, but if he’s come back the same horse or even a bit better then a three wide trail would give him the chance to sweep home late. One to keep an eye on for the future.

15. Punch Lane (Anthony & Sam Freedman): Bounced back from his failure in the Theo Marks with a strong on pace effort behind Amor Victorious in the Shannon. Draws right near the designated leader so that ensures there’ll be a big chance for him to be carried across onto the speed easily enough. There is more depth in this race but with that return to form under his belt he has to be considered an each-way chance.

Territory Express (Pic: Bradley Photos)

16. Makarena (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Everything fell into place for her to break through in the Golden Pendant two weeks ago, a perfect run in a small field and with the weights on her side. Not quite the same set up for her this time around, she’ll have to do some work from a tricky gate in open company. Happy to overlook her in this one.

17. Strait Acer (Anthony Cummings): Group 1 placed last spring and ran fourth in the Golden Eagle so he definitely has the talent. Runner-up in the Provincial-Midway Championships Final but was a notch below his best in three subsequent runs. Trialled okay but the draw will see him give away a start. That said, he does have a decent finish on him when right and expect him to be running on.

18E. Waterford (Chris Waller): Rosehill specialist and has a strong first-up record to go with it. Ran Iknowastar down to win here fresh last time in when giving that horse 3kg so meets him 4kg better off at the weights here. Plenty to like about how he’s moved to the line in his two trials recently and that gate just inside the middle is perfection for him. Like to see a bit of support closer to start time but hard to see him not playing a role in the finish.

19E. Jimmystar (Ciaron Maher): Also engaged at Caulfield and he resumed there with a late charging win over 1100m three weeks ago. That was a bit of a confidence boost for all concerned as he’d promised a lot early and for one reason or another things didn’t happen for him as he was beaten at odds-on in three starts runs in the autumn. Draws well and if he’s here he’s one of the chances.

20E. Williamsburg (Brett Cavanough): New addition to the stable and hasn’t raced since he ran third in the Rowley Mile back in August. Broke a run of outs prior to that with a strong all the way win over the Rosehill 1500m. Hasn’t been seen publicly for the new yard, whether he can use the gate to his advantage at 1400m remains to be seen in a big field.

21E. Grebeni (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Handy on his day and he ran a nice race when resuming last time in to finish fourth behind Waterford then struck heavy tracks in two subsequent unplaced runs. Warming up for the Big Dance, note his second-up record is three wins from four attempts, so whatever he does in this he’ll improve on but you wouldn’t put it past him to run a cheeky race.

22E. Robusto (Bjorn Baker): Solid effort at first run for the new stable when fourth in the Cameron Handicap though he did have a nice run there. Draws out this time around and while he has always been an honest customer he’s proven so far to be just a bit below this level.

23E. Diamond Diesel (Adam Duggan): Enjoyed a great autumn and winter campaign but didn’t fire when resuming in the Theo Marks a month ago after drawing well and racing handy. Faces a job from the wide gate in this company if he gains a start and while this looks a bit tough he can be placed to advantage elsewhere.

SPEED MAP: Iknowastar is a noted leader who should find the fence in front with Punch Lane coming across to keep him company. If Phearson runs he'll look to be right up there. The likes of Here To Shock, Belclare, Williamsburg and Semana have soft gates that can land them just behind the pace. Similarly Gringotts and Encap so there could be some jostling for spots. Makarena has decisions to make from a sticky draw. You'd expect the leader will run them along.

SELECTIONS:
18 WATERFORD
10 Gringotts
9 Encap
19 Jimmystar/11 Terra Mater

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting