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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Warwick Farm on Saturday.

The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a heavy track with plenty of rain in the forecast.

7. Polhampton is a 55 rated horse and has won just one race from 15 starts but if the track is bottomless, she looks very dangerously weighted with just 50kg on her back after the claim of Brock Ryan. The four-year-old was good at Wyong first up, hitting the line over 1100m before running fourth to Lashes last start. That was staying at 1100m in a slowly run race. Punters Intelligence shows her last 600m of 12.32s was only bettered by the winner. That was on a heavy track. Out to 1300m now third up suits and the Noel Mayfield-Smith trained mare can hopefully settle a position closer than last time out. Want to see her stalking, giving herself every chance to slog out the finish. Despite her poor strike rate, this race sets up well for her and think the bookies have priced her very generously.

Dangers: 3. Stella Sea Sun looks ready to win. The knock is the price. The four-year-old mare was bumped at the start second up at Rosehill which saw her settle last and her run ended 100m from home. Punters Intelligence confirms that with her 400-200m split (11.36s) ranking the second fastest of the entire meeting. Her last 200m, meanwhile, ranked 18th across the day. There was nothing between her and 2. Helga behind Aquitaine in December but Stella Sea Sun meets her 4kg better and profiles as being sharper here over 1300m. Helga drops back to 1300m, after disappointing over the mile third up. There are question marks over how well 4. Spiritual Pursuit has returned and if she’ll see out 1300m but she should get her favoured wet conditions.

How to play it: How to play it: Polhampton EACH WAY ($31 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Polhampton last start behind Lashes

Now that trainer Stephen Jones has appeared to have ironed out 2. Mr Wong’s racing manners, reluctant to drop off the four-year-old as he marches towards the Country Championships. The son of Mossman raced very truly at Randwick first up, without a hint of wanting to lay out. He settled a lot closer in the run too. How much of that was due to the wizardry of visiting British jockey Tom Marquand? Well, the in form hoop maintains the ride which is a bonus. The win was two lengths quicker than Hellenism on the same day. Has handled wet tracks in the past and the step out to 1200m second up is perfect. Second up last campaign Mr Wong tackled a wet track in Highway company and, spearing up the inside, was a touch unlucky not to have beaten Malea Magic.

Dangers: 1. Safe Landing let down like he would fight out the finish first up but peaked on his run. The five-year-old ran Noble Boy to 1.5L at his only try on heavy ground. That stacks up well for this. Imagine he rolls to the front. He’ll be hard to peg back if he stacks his rivals up. 6. Dulette beat Assault’n’bathory in a Highway on a heavy track three back before last start, that horse turned the tables. Mainly due to Dulette having to cover ground. He’s right in this. 18. Southern Appeal nearly put himself over the inside fence the last time we saw him, reportedly not appreciating racing inside horses. His recent trial (right down the outside) was a ripper. 10. Magnarock and 11. Major Time for the exotics.

How to play it: Mr Wong WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Mr Wong doing everything right first up

Prior to running first up last campaign 2. Kubrick was being mentioned in the same breath as Bivouac, Yes Yes Yes and Exceedance. In his two runs thereafter, the Run To The Rose and Golden Rose, he proved to be a couple of lengths inferior, but there is no shame in that! Looking at his fresh run over 1200m last time in, Kubrick’s last 600m was 32.79s, identical to that of the winner Bivouac, which was only bettered by Exceedance (32.59s). The son of Shooting To Win is presumably tracking a path to the Randwick Guineas but the wet track will make it a test of stamina. The Bondi Stakes-winner won on a Soft 7 on debut at Cranbourne over 1000m, if that’s any guide on how he’ll handle Saturday’s conditions. He’s well treated under the conditions of the race and trialled well alongside Alizee in his latest hitout.

Dangers: 1. Kiamichi didn’t fire a shot over the spring, failing in the Toy Show, having missed the kick, and then fading from outside of the lead in the G2 Furious won by Libertini. Can the Golden Slipper-winner recapture her two-year-old form? James Cummings looks to have pulled the right reign scratching her from the Expressway Stake last week given the forecast as she loves wet tracks. Her recent trial was a beauty, running good time from in front. The more fancied stablemate 3. Pandemic was typically explosive first up signalling he has returned as well as ever. Has to stretch his sprint to 1200m and he didn’t fire on a soft track over the autumn (albeit over 1300m behind Yao Dash and Funstar).

How to play it: Kubrick WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Kubrick first up over 1200m last campaign

Forget that 4. Jor El ever ran on debut behind Prague. The Gerald Ryan-trained youngster reared at the start and didn’t really take any part in the race, passing two late that had dropped out. The colt was ordered back to the trials and like the way he nipped around Rosehill over 900m. Only Golden Gift winner Dame Giselle clocked faster time of the two-year-old heats that morning. He jumped straight to the front, controlled the middle stages and pulled clear without Robbie Dolan having to move. Dolan stays on for Saturday. Jor El held off 3. Barbaric and Blaze A Trail in the heat. Back to 1000m and with the likelihood of him landing in the first couple, this son of I Am Invincible could be worth an each way ticket. The breed typically don’t love wet tracks but we’re getting a price to find.

Dangers: 11. Fall On A Star didn’t get much room late in the Gimcrack on debut where she started hard in the market. Has trialled twice since then and loved the way she put her rivals to the sword in the latest of those at Newcastle. Barbaric gets the winkers on for the first time and is a two-year-old the Snowdens rate highly, which says a lot given their fire power! 6. Ticket To Ride hit the line well behind Rulership first up with Punters Intelligence revealing her last 600m of 33.28s was the quickest of the entire meeting. Can make a case for debutant 11. Snitzari having safely held Fall On A Star in her one trial. Risking 2. Destination . The time he clocked on debut wasn’t flash and the form out of the race has been poor.

How to play it: Jor El EACH EAY ($19 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Jor El holding off Barbaric in a recent trial

9. Cellsabeel only has to reproduce what she did at Rosehill last start to beat these by just as far. The daughter of Hinchinbrook cruised through the heavy ground to put six lengths on In Flanders. That horse was subsequently beaten 3.5L by Away Game last week but through every other measure, Cellsabeel’s win was of the highest quality. She is the current Golden Slipper favourite, and on the strength of that win, she deserves to be. She had put the writing on the wall prior to that, powering to the line to run fourth in the Golden Gift on debut from an impossible position back in the field. That’s the strongest two-year-old race we’ve seen in Sydney so far. This strong filly isn’t the cleanest of beginners so in a field of 14, won’t want to be buried away. That’s significant as only back luck beats her.

Dangers: 4. Marnix was a dominant winner at Geelong on debut for Godolphin. This son of Written Tycoon, the only yearling bought by the royal blues at the 2019 Inglis Premier, put his rivals away in the manner of a smart colt. A trial on Monday kept Marnix up to the mark and gave Nash Rawiller a feel for him. He is 1250m back to 1100m but the likelihood of a wet track helps negate that. 1. Encountabull gets the blinkers on for the first time having run second to Wild Ruler last start in the Inglis Nursery. 2. Osamu travelled like the winner on debut but looked to float once he hit the front. Will be better for the outing. 6. Fixated found the line behind Hanseatic at Caulfield on debut.

How to play it: Cellsabeel WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA 4,9 Odds & Evens: SPLIT

How do they beat Cellsabeel off this win?

11. Katalin is undefeated in two outings and love what this filly has done to date, giving the impression she’ll relish the mile. She gets here quickly, out in trip against the older horses in BM78 company but this is a very promising three-year-old and she gets in with 52kg. After beating subsequent winners Valdostana, Best Stone and Juan Diva at Warwick Farm on debut, James Cummings found a Class 1 for her at Newcastle and she gapped her rivals. The best part of her race was the last 200m. Punters Intelligence shows her 11.45s for that split was two lengths faster than the next best. That 1400m race, albeit much to do with lead times, was five lengths quicker than 6. Outback Diva’s on the same day. And the wet track? Katalin’s dam Kanzan was a swimmer and Medaglia D’Oro is a handy wet track sire.

Dangers: This is a good clash between two horses destined for better things. The other, of course, is 7. She’s Ideel having been so impressive over 2000m last Saturday at Randwick. Loved this staying mare’s strength through the line, clocking 34.13s for her last 600m with Punters Intelligence further revealing an 11.53s last 200m. That suggests she’ll eat up 2400m. Curious that she drops back to the mile. Has handled soft tracks well. Barrier 1 is probably not ideal on a heavy track at Warwick Farm where the jockeys tend to fan. 9. Think It Over is going well for Kerry Parker and found the line well first up over 1400m. 10. Off Shaw had no luck in that same race and has a heavy track win in New Zealand to his name.

How to play it: Katalin WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Check out the final 200m of Katalin last start!

Was it as impressive on the clock as it was to the eye? @BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to find out @tab @godolphin pic.twitter.com/oh1KPlgraD

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) February 6, 2020

14. Heart Of The Oak has won three from four and her only defeat came at the hands of Pandemic on debut. The daughter of Sebring is building a great record. She resumed at Warwick Farm and despite the leaders getting away with moderate early splits, she reeled them in. One of those leaders was Positive Peace, a subsequent two time winner, the latest of those on Wednesday by a whopping seven lengths. There is no denying that she isn’t well treated by the set weight conditions of the race but she maps beautifully and there’s a lot to like about her desire. Gerald Ryan has kept Heart Of The Oak fresh since her first up win and has booked the services of Brenton Avdulla. This strikes me as the type of race that will be won by the best suited horse as opposed to the best credentialed and there is a plenty in her favour.

Dangers: Last year’s Inglis Sprint was quinelled by the two highest rated horses in the race (Fiesta and Estijaab) and they gapped the rest. There is no clear top rated tier this year but certainly respect 1. Accession. He was only a couple of lengths off Standout over the spring and has handled wet tracks in the past. Has been gelded over the break. Could have done a touch more in his one trial. 5. True Detective also returned two stone lighter first up and should have fought out the finish with Pandemic if not for being held up. Handles the wet too. Melbourne visitors 12. Rubisaki and 13. Xilong boast excellent strike rates but both are well found. Reckon wetter the better for the hard fit 6. Rari.

How to play it: Heart Of The Oak EACH WAY ($17 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Heart Of The Oak winning first up at Warwick Farm

It’s conceivable that 5. Shared Ambition will be a Group One winner by the end of the autumn carnival. You just have to gamble that he is ready first up. He tackles the mile so that’s a push that the four-year-old is forward enough. There isn’t much of him either, so don’t expect him to wander into the yard big in condition. The import has won three from three for Chris Waller, all in Melbourne, in the manner of a top shelf stayer. Waller has said that the G1 Ranvet is on his radar for the horse, which he’d tackle fourth up. Looking back through Waller’s past Ranvet runners, they typically run well first up including his 2013 winner Foreteller. Should handle the wet track off his soft form and love the way he trucked to the line in a recent Warwick Farm trial. The horse to beat.

Dangers: 3. Gaulois is the ‘Johnny-on-the-spot’ of the field. We know this five-year-old’s level, which is around Listed grade, so he doesn’t have the scope of Shared Ambition. However, he has two runs already under this belt, was a third up winner last preparation and has a near faultless heavy track record (5:3-2-0). He peaked on his run in the Carrington last start but will be cherry ripe now. The wetter the better for 1. Wu Gok. He isn’t a miler and this is a run too early but he loves the slop more than most horses in the country (having won six from 10 on heavy tracks) and enjoyed the best campaign of his career last time in. Kris Lees’ pair 6. Hallelujah Boy and 9. Attention Run also like wet tracks.

How to play it: Shared Ambition WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Shared Ambition cruising to the line in a recent trial

Keen to see how far 2. God Of Thunder can progress this time back. The four-year-old certainly looks capable of knocking off a Group race. Despite winning one from five last campaign, he was excellent, progressing from a BM78 to running second in the G2 Caulfield Sprint as the equal $3.90 favourite. He was unlucky in three of those defeats. The win, meanwhile, was on a heavy track over 1100m where he tucked in behind the speed before scoring a dominant win still with a gear or two up his sleeve. That was with Brenton Avdulla in the saddle and he maintains his association with the horse, having been aboard in all three of his wins. There is no question how well God Of Thunder has returned on the strength of his brilliant Rosehill trial win.

Dangers: Wangaratta trainer Dan McCarthy is storm chasing with 1. Ashlor given the six-year-old’s wet track stats (5:2-2-0 on soft and heavy). Was only beaten 2.5L in the G2 Australia Stakes behind Scales Of Justice last start, albeit off a $91 SP. Microphone and Begood Toya Mother finished behind him. 7. Goldfinch is very fast and very honest. All six of her career wins have been over the 1000m. 10. Miss Exfactor gets in very light with 50.5kg after Robbie Dolan’s claim and she loves the wet. Don’t underestimate her. 4. Coruscate has ability but has spent a year on the sidelines while Godolphin stablemate 3. Taniko hasn’t looked comfortable in heavy ground in the past.

How to play it: God Of Thunder WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

BEST BET

"He certainly looks capable of knocking off a Group race."@BradJGray is confident it'll be worth the wait on Saturday for his best of the day @Darby_Racing @HawkesRacing @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/3IoHTmMBeA

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) February 6, 2020

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Warwick Farm meeting