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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.

The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a good track.

1. Hinchbeast went a brutal speed early on his debut, over this same track and trip, before holding off the late charge of Volterra. The pair were in a different post code to their rivals. Punters Intelligence shows Hinchbeast ripped through his first 500m in 29.09s. To put that into context, Hinchbeast would have led noted speedster Mansa Musa by 3.5L in the early stages (using Mansa Musa’s Saturday Rosehill sectionals as a guide). Of course Hinchbeast felt the pinch late but he was entitled to. Hugh Bowman remarked post-race that he didn’t realise how fast he was going. That’s the sign of a smart horse. The two-year-olds clocked a time a length quicker than Aquitaine in a BM64 later on the card. I’d expect him to punch up front barrier 1 to lead this field too. Looks well above average and his race experience counts for plenty.

Dangers: 7. Sancy looked a likely type in winning a recent Gosford trial for the powerful Snowden stable and she was the first horse backed in TAB’s fixed odds market. Happy to oppose 4. Mrs Maisel at the price. The numbers out of her debut left me questioning the depth of that Kembla race. 3. Tycoonist’s trials have been better than they read.

How to play it: How to play it: Hinchbeast WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Just how good is Hinchbeast?

The early splits from his debut win suggest he could be a very smart two-year-old. @BradJGray and Punters Intelligence with more on that... @BBakerRacing @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/NIicxzXnFl

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 5, 2019

2. Nordic is ready to win now third up. The former Kiwi-trained galloper has had two runs in Australia for John O’Shea. The first of those was when he hit the line over the mile at Hawkesbury before three weeks later jumping straight out to 2000m when fourth behind Mr Reckless at Kembla Grange in a BM78. That was a high-rating race. The four-year-old clocked the second quickest last 600m there (35.69s). Go back to his New Zealand form and he started $7 in a Group Three won by The Chosen One, running eighth with excuses. The drop back in grade to a BM70 is significant here, as is the claim of Billy Owen which sees him in with 57kg. There looks to be good speed also. If there is one knock, it’s the little drop in trip to 1800m but we are getting a price in a race where the favourites look vulnerable.

Dangers: 1. Soldier Of Love looks to desperately want this trip now having stayed at the mile his last three. He won the latest of those, needing every bit of the Canterbury 1550m. 3. Statuesquely has been costly to punters this campaign and is hard in the market again. The extra trip looks to suit. 8. Convinced had every possible last Saturday but is another that profiles like he wants 1800m now.

How to play it: Nordic EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Nordic last start behind Mr Reckless

3. Dew Drop had no luck two back in a Highway over 1800m at Randwick behind But I Know, trucking to the line behind a wall of horses. Prior to that the John Sprague-trained gelding ran in the Port Macquarie Cup won by Rapido Chaparro with Morton’s Fork second. As for last start, the five-year-old ran at Newcastle in a BM88 fought out by House Of Cartier and Sir Pippin and he wasn’t disgraced, running sixth of the eight runners only 4.4 lengths off the winner and this time, finishing right on the hammer of Rapido Chaparro. The Port Macquarie-based galloper has been up for a while but has an excellent grounding for this. He’ll need luck blending into the race at the right time, but we’re getting double figure odds.

Dangers: 1. Gunga Din was 2000m back to 1300m last start and ran on brilliantly from the tail. That’s a lovely tune up back out to 1800m but did he do enough in that 2000m Highway to warrant being favourite here with 59kg? Don’t leave 14. Treasure The Love out of any exotics. The mare has won just one from 22 but raced out of her grade last start in the Queanbeyan Cup, running second. Her fast finishing fourth last preparation behind 7. Clergyman, a big hope himself here, stacks up well for this. 4. Harbouring is a grinder but will make his own luck and be hard to peg back. 8. Dukes County and 11. Quick Spin are hopes too.

How to play it: Dew Drop WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Dew Drop in a much deeper race last start

1. Fun Fact shouldn’t have too much trouble finding the front here, which is crucial to his chances. In three of his five career wins he has controlled the race from the front, in another he sat outside of the lead in second and the other he box seated but was able to build into the race when he wanted, securing an inside split. Being allowed to roll here will negate the weight to some extent too (he carries 60kg after the claim of Sam Clenton). The four-year-old grey was ambitiously targeted at the Golden Eagle first up, running 15th but he didn’t shirk his task late. Then second up at Kembla there was nowhere to hide with the race run at a fast clip early. Liked his work on the line when he wasn’t cluttered up. That should have him at his top now.

Dangers: 5. California Longbow pulled up lame last start at Kembla when much more was expected from him as favourite. The start prior he was a strong winner at Rosehill, beating 3. Mangione. Mangione turned the tables at Kembla, where California Longbow had excuses, running second to Mr Reckless. There doesn’t look to be a great deal between the pair, and the map favours Mangione from the inside draw, but there is some appeal in the odds about California Longbow given we can forgive last time out. That looks to round out the winning chances with 7. Dark Pearl next best, on the back of a breakthrough win in Australia.

How to play it: Fun Fact WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Fun Fact working home last start

Love the set up here for 11. Starla up in grade, down in the weights and on the 10 day back up. The three-year-old filly was rolled at Warwick Farm at the midweeks last time out when $1.80 but the winner Dorothy Of Oz got complete control from the front. Starla made her move at the top of the straight, wobbling around the bend, and despite looking like she was going to reel in the leader she was safely held the last 200m. On that, don’t think the drop back to 1500m from the mile will do her any harm either. Drawn middle, she should settle in behind what looks a genuinely run race. Stablemate 8. Bigboyroy is one of those speed horses and is also hard in the market. He won on the same day as Starla at Canterbury two back, running 5.5 lengths slower overall time.

Dangers: 10. Vitesse, 7. Silent Explorer and 1. Bobby Dee are the candidates most likely to keep Bigboyroy company out in front. 4. Defeat has raced well his last two, both races dominated from the front. Respect how confidently Bobby Dee was backed first up in harder grade than this. He raced in restricted room. Brenton Avdulla has clicked with 3. Orcein, with the gelding having his third start in 18 days. Have reservations about the depth of the race 9. Pinup Miss won at Kembla, especially after Miss Redoble failed last Saturday, but she was rather dominant and still has some upside.

How to play it: Starla WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

BEST BET

"This filly is up in grade, down in weight and on the 10 day backup."@BradJGray likes the set up for a three-year-old at @rosehillgardens tomorrow @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/cYHn9LMbcp

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 5, 2019

4. Word For Word is first up over 1350m with Nash Rawiller booked. That’s a double push that this talented four-year-old mare is ready to go fresh, despite having her last run seven months ago. Only trialled once, but was ridden positively over 1030m where she tracked stablemate Toryjoy and coasted to the line. The market will be significant come closer to jump but everything suggests she’s forward enough to win. She was a dominant victor over Pinup Miss first up last campaign when taken straight to the front before just failing to peg back gun Queensland galloper Baccarat Baby second up out to the mile on a heavy track. Baccarat Baby had an outstanding winter thereafter running second to Kolding in the G2 Queensland Guineas and dominating the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas. The lead looks to be Word For Word’s here if Nash wants it.

Dangers: 6. Lucicello was only beaten 0.5L at Kembla when fourth behind Kylease but she didn’t explode late like we’ve seen from her in the past including first up when she beat subsequent winner Invictus Salute. Chris Waller has opted to stretch her out to 1350m on the back of that latest run. She is Group Three placed over the trip when third to True Detective and Superium but still need to be convinced it’s her optimum trip. 7. Handspun sprinted straight past Lucicello last start, clocking a slick 33.18s for her last 600m. That was off a $31 SP. Now she is $5.50. 5. Pumpkin Pie is in the same boat. 9. To Your Health is ready to win and right down in the weights. 8. Almeheri might need this?

How to play it: Word For Word WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Word For Word trialling at Rosehill – December 2

This race sets up perfectly for 4. Junglized. There isn’t much speed, outside of favourite 5. Invictus Salute and can see that duo getting complete control from the outset. The best of Junglized wins this race but he is susceptible to the odd inexplicable shocker. Hence the price. If the two leaders pair off to fight this out, the bulldog qualities of Junglized will kick in and he’ll be hard to shrug off. It’s an ideal scenario for him, especially drawn barrier 1. First up over this track and trip he led and looked set to drop off at the 200m but rallied again late to run second to Sandbar. His record over the Rosehill 1100m reads three second from eight starts but that hardly does him justice. A repeat of his effort third up last preparation when second to Bon Amis, has him tight in the finish at each-way odds.

Dangers: Invictus Salute absorbed a stack of early pressure last week at Rosehill to score impressively. The time was only a tick slower than the Listed race on the day. Now for 10. Drachenfels. Gulp. First up last campaign he had no luck at all, finishing seventh and four lengths in rears of the third placed Invictus Salute. He beats her home with the right breaks? He meets her 8kg better off here too. Second up he was again luckless, finishing just 0.6L behind the third-placed Junglized. It all ties in rather neatly. He is a heartbreaker for punters but if we’re ever going to catch him, reckon it’s fresh over 1100m. 7. Taniko is explosive when right. Don’t read too much into her plain trials as she can do that. Victorian La Tigeresa is one dimensional but brings Group form.

How to play it: Junglized WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Junglized first up at Rosehill

9. Burning Crown was ridden for speed at Newcastle last start and the four-year-old relished it, running fast time in holding off talented three-year-old Leviathan. Trainer Sue Grills made a significant point post-race suggesting one of the keys to the win was Burning Crown being able to lead on his own. This race looks to set up similarly, without an obvious co-leader. There are a few possible candidates but none that can match his cruising speed. Jason Collett rode him beautifully last start and keeps the ride. Prior to his Newcastle win he broke the track record at Coonabarabran. Like his old man Helmet, Burning Crown has a few tricks of his own and he’s only now really starting to work this racing caper out.
Dangers: 3. Poetic Charmer hit the line sweetly first up at Kembla behind Trumbull. He is always thereabouts and should settle much closer than we saw from him in his return. He measured up in BM88 grade behind Passage Of Time in his one run last campaign which reads well for this. David Pfieffer’s mare 5. The Party Girl stays at 1200m (might want 1400m now) but her record suggests she improves sharply second up. Thought she did enough first up behind all-the-way-winner Kylease. Likely settles last in this but will be rattling home. 6. Tony’s Reward pulled up lame last start. He is better than that.

How to play it: Burning Crown WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Burning Crown proving too fast at Newcastle

14. Spencer was 1100m to 1400m second up but was too good for Orcein at Rosehill, gapping third. This is a couple of grades harder but the five-year-old plummets 8kg on the back of a win and maps to get a very cosy run from the low draw. We saw him box seat last start and would expect Rachel King to aim to land in a similar spot in this, even with the speed carving across from wide draws. The time from the race wasn’t flash, with the maiden on the day running three lengths quicker but we saw Orcein frank the form last Saturday. At the back end of last campaign Spencer’s form around Kolding suggests he is up to winning a race of the class. It’s a tricky BM88 to assess but Spencer should get every possible in the run which is likely to prove the difference.

Dangers: 8. Toryjoy was let stride in her trial suggesting that’ll be the tactics come race day. That gives her a winning hope but could knock up late given her free-rolling style. 4. Outrageous gets the services of H. Bowman this week. Maps beautifully from the draw and is hard to beat, but he is just too well found, especially after the scratching of Yulong January tightening his price further. 1. Smartedge has had four trials! Ready to go here. 2. Strome was dominant last start and is an underrated mare. 10. Primitivo a knockout hope.

How to play it: Spencer WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Spencer winning a BM70 last start

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill meeting