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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill.

The rail is out 3m and the form has been done for a good track.

1. Herman Hesse went way too fast in front at Randwick a month ago. The petrol light was blinking at the 200m mark and he was entitled to drop out, finishing a fading seventh. Forgive him that. The import was impressive the start prior, showing sustained speed at Mornington over 2000m to win by a margin, with My Demetra, a mare we know well in Sydney, a well beaten fourth some 4.5 lengths away. The runner up there went on to win himself two weeks later too. The import has won over 2800m on a couple of occasions so he’ll relish getting out to 2400m and the four weeks between runs ensures that he isn’t flattened by last start. A senior rider goes on in Jason Collett. Unlikely to get complete control but should get his chance from outside of 7. Arabolini.

Dangers: 4. Supression has raced exclusively in Melbourne so far for Chris Waller and on the back of a Class 1 Mornington win, steps him up in grade out to 2400m. Could have untold upside but the form out of that win isn’t flash. Arabolini is dangerous when he gets right down in the weights as he gets running out in front. His form around Savvy Valentino, Harpo Marx and No Compromise read well for this. He was 2400m on a heavy track back to 2100m on a good track at Newcastle last start. Perhaps that’s enough to forgive him, even though he was a $2 favourite. 6. Merlinite presents on a four day back up if she’s here which is appealing from a fitness perspective.

How to play it: Herman Hesse WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Herman Hesse last start at Randwick

12. Schiller’s Myst booked her ticket in Highway Handicap company with a powerful win at Scone last start out to the mile. Punters Intelligence reveals a particularly impressive last 400m, clocking a final 200m split of 11.10s. That was just her fourth career start. First up she got a long way back at Muswellbrook before making late ground to finish fourth. The barrier dictates that she’ll be in the second half again but the 1500m at Rosehill gives runners plenty of time to find a spot and she’ll be finishing hard. Her pedigree suggests she’ll get out over 2000m eventually. Jockey Jason Collett has become a go-to for Brett Cavanough when he comes to town, with the pair combining 40 times in the past for 12 wins, striking at 30%.

Dangers: 10. Lucky Banner sets up well for this fourth up from a middle draw. The Rod Northam-trained mare was building up to something and looked to have found the perfect race at Gosford last start but she never saw daylight. The positive is that keeps her fresh for this. This is her fifth crack at a Highway but perhaps the most suitable of them all, on dry ground and over this trip. 11. Andorra La Vella will spear to the front and has Tim Clark on top. That’s a fair head start. 2. Chase My Crown draws horribly but has the talent to give this a shake. 7. So Say You is a must for exotics while 6. Sizzling Cat is another with obvious claims.

How to play it: Schiller’s Myst WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Schiller’s Myst winning at Scone last start

3. Jazzland’s last six wins (he has won seven overall) have all been from in front. That’s how he races best. First up he ran along at Gosford and was only run down late by 4. Shibli, who had two runs under his belt already. Not only have the weights levelled up since then but so have their respective fitness levels. Jazzland subsequently ran second to Milkman on a wet track at Warwick Farm. The run had merit as he was forced to sit outside of the lead, as opposed to own the race himself, and the seven-year-old is better on top of the ground. Looking at this map, Josh Parr shouldn’t have too much trouble finding the fence before giving his rivals something to chase. Significantly, Parr has ridden Jazzland 10 times for five wins and three seconds.

Dangers: Shibli was well supported to make it three wins on the bounce a fortnight ago at Randwick but there was no catching Ruby Tuesday who ran her rivals ragged from in front. That was his fourth run in a row at the mile trip so perhaps extra ground is what he was looking for. Was also found to be ‘slow to recover’. 7. Avion Fury is a stayer with more talent than his record, and benchmark rating, suggests. Resumes over 1800m for his new trainer Ian Finn, without an official trial, which is curious. Beat Parry Sound only two starts ago and ran midfield in a Group Three behind Shared Ambition and Entente back in April. 6. Another One at least brings a different form line and could relish the 1800m.

How to play it: Jazzland WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Jazzland will be out to turn the tables on Shibli

Taking the punt that 3. Amiche can hit the ground running for Ed Cummings. Would have loved to have had the chance to get a look at her in a Sydney trial but instead we’re forced to judge her off two Queensland trials when still trained by David Vandyke. The latest of those in early October. They don’t read much on paper but the five-year-old wasn’t asked to exert any energy in either hitout. She is a talented mare on her day and did SP $2.40 favourite the last time we saw her at the races, when running third to Fender. She had bolted in prior to that. Amazingly, the longest price she has ever started is $4.40 and that was on debut. In five of her eight subsequent starts she has jumped $1.85 or shorter. Also has a dominant win over Ingear to her name, a mare that beat 2. Undeniable recently at Eagle Farm.

Dangers: The Chris Waller-trained 4. Seleque is a reliable benchmark level mare and was taken by the way she trucked to the line in a tickover trial at Rosehill recently behind stablemate Selburose. Comes to hand quickly too. Her two most recent wins have been on wet tracks. Undeniable is very fit and is racing in career best form. Matt Smith finds another suitable race for her having found Pandora Blue too slippery last start. Has an exceptional 1100m record (7:3-2-1). 8. Parachuter bumped into an up-and-comer in Norwegian Bliss last start at Canterbury. She had her chance in front on that occasion. Drops back to 1100m, goes up slightly in grade and draws awkwardly, however.

How to play it: Amiche WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

This is a race that hasn’t thrown up many curve balls recently despite the capacity field, and the obvious horse this year is Keith Dryden’s 2. Dream Runner. In the past five runnings of the race, $5 has been the longest priced winner. This five-year-old has looked right at home over the staying trips this preparation. It all started with a Highway win over 1800m while his last four runs have seen him run placings behind Accountability, Yiyi and Mightybeel. There is no Chris Waller in the form guide for this race, however! Robbie Dolan, who rode Dream Runner last start, will use the inside draw to park up within the first dozen. There is a temptation to look wide given the cases that can be made for a couple at big odds but Dream Runner is the most likely winner and a deserved favourite.

Dangers: 10. Five Kingdom will find this country company to his liking having been around the mark in deeper races than this since Matt Dale took over his training. Top pick if he had drawn a gate. Gets in so well at the weights. 9. Nemingah continues to hold his form and his Port Macquarie Cup second reference looks strong for this. 4. Aesop’s Fable pulled up 2/5 lame last start. Forgive her that. 3. Kitzbuhel is the sort of horse better drawn 18 than inside. He’ll give a sight.

How to play it: Dream Runner WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Dream Runner last start behind Mightybeel

It’s advantage 6. Budhwar on this map. The five-year-old, trained by Damien Lane, is hard to get past when he finds the front and expect Tim Clark take up the running. He resumed with an all the way win at Goulburn over 1200m this preparation, flagging that he had returned as well as ever before finishing a luckless sixth behind Barossa Rosa and Cuban Royale in a Midway over 1300m at Rosehill. He parked in behind the speed but never got out. There was a lot more depth to that Midway than the one Budhwar lines up in here too. After that he just went down fighting at Hawkesbury before running second to Rubamos in midweek company at Canterbury. The son of Wandjina is no star but what you see is what you get and this looks to set up perfectly for him.

Dangers: 4. Pandora Blue draws to the immediate outside of Budhwar and as fast as she is, doubt she’ll have the speed to cross him. The four-year-old mare has won four of her six starts and just keeps raising the bar. Ran away from her rivals in Midway company over 1200m last start. Has to stretch her brilliance to 1300m for the first time but doubt that gets her beaten. 1. Travest is the best credentialed horse in this field and resumed with a slashing sixth behind Salina Dreaming and The Face first up last preparation over 1100m! He subsequently wasn’t beaten far by the likes of The Irishman and Only Words. The query is that he maps to be last first up off one very soft 700m trial. Class could still get him home, however.

How to play it: Budhwar WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Budhwar last start at Canterbury

5. Shalatin charged to the line in the Kirkham Plate on debut a fortnight ago, clocking a slick final 400m. His last 200m of 11.31 was two lengths faster than the next best. The Joe Pride-trained two-year-old jumped awkwardly from an outside barrier and was dragged back to last and still only had one runner behind him at the 300m mark. Once Jay Ford balanced the son of Shalaa up he produced an eye-catching fifth to only be beaten 1.78L at the finish by 8. Ojai. He still has a few wrinkles to iron out in terms of his racing sense but there’s no questioning his raw talent. Drawn a middle gate at his second career outing, if Ford and lob into a midfield spot and Shalatin can still produce the same close, his rivals, on what they’ve shown so far, will have a task holding him out.

Dangers: 4. Shirvo was posted deep the entire trip in the Kirkham yet still wasn’t beaten far. He was entitled to drop away. He can certainly turn the tables on Ojai. Ojai had every possible favour in the run but won well enough and she maps to play stalker again from another perfect draw. Queen Of The Ball went down fighting having parked outside of the leader, showing an abundance of early speed. Could be the first to find the fence this time, and the winkers go on. 1. Sejardan was visually impressive on debut but the Breeders’ was significantly slower than what the fillies produced in the Gimcrack. Times aren’t everything, however.

How to play it: Shalatin WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Shalatin’s eye catching debut

The only thing missing for 6. Tricky Gal is a wet track. Everything else is tailor made for her. In her defence, she has run some cracking races on top of the ground too, including first up this time back where her sizzling 32.91s last 600m was among the quickest across the entire Randwick meeting. That was behind Minhaaj who of course subsequently gapped her rivals at Flemington down the straight. That saw Tricky Gal earn an ‘Invitation’ but it was a non-event for the six-year-old mare, all dressed up with nowhere to go. She never saw daylight and went to the line untested. The most glaring point to this race on Saturday is the lack of speed, which sees inside draws even more of a premium. Have mapped Tricky Gal to be one-out-one-back. She ran a slashing second in the race last year behind Savatiano, on a wet track.

Dangers: 9. Electric Girl could be the default leader which makes her dangerous. Tricky Gal holds a 2-0 verdict over her, running straight past her in the Nivison, but Electric Girl loves dry tracks (14:5-1-3) and is racing like she needs 1400m now. Wasn’t beaten all that far by Quantico last start. 1. Rocha Clock is the class runner of the field but the lack of pressure is a concern. She isn’t a sit-sprint style of mare. Like Tricky Gal, the low draw gives 8. Spiranac the chance to park right on the back of the leaders. The Kosciuszko form should hold up for this, especially after what Edit did in the Classique Legend Stakes last Saturday. There’s a case to be made for most of these, in a typical open mares race, but how it’s likely to be run will prove a decisive factor.

How to play it: Tricky Gal WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Tricky Gal was luckless in The Invitation

8. Fox Fighter should have won last Saturday. He was a good thing beaten over 1100m behind On The Lead. The three-year-old was buried on the fence and the gaps just didn’t come. When he finally poked through, it was all too late. He savaged the line the last 100m. Forget his start prior to that when posted deep over 1400m, jumping out in trip having won so impressively in Midway company over 1000m two weeks earlier, clocking the fastest closing splits across the Randwick meeting. David Payne has Foxfighter in career best form so he backs up just a week later to right the wrong of seven days ago and finds another very suitable race. Tim Clark jumps aboard this time and will be tasked with overcoming a tricky gate.

Dangers: 1. Flat Heaven comes through that same race and also had a hard luck story to tell but it was all his own doing, as it often is with him. You’d think after 20 starts and having raced in three different countries, he’d have worked it out by now. He fired up out the back of the field given Brock Ryan no option other than to slide around the field. Now it’s Tyler Schiller’s turn. 4. Blaze A Trail has always been a flashy trialler and this time back has been no different, as he embarks on his first preparation for Maher and Eustace. He’ll run well but concerned that he’ll find a couple a touch sharp over 1200m. 7. Depth That Varies is a knockout hope if everything falls his way.

How to play it: Fox Fighter WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"David Payne has Fox Fighter in career best form."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray believes Saturday's race is another winnable one for the flying three-year-old @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/eIcKek3UhX

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) November 4, 2021

1. Zoushack only has to hold his form to be fighting out the finish yet again. The five-year-old has proven to be a handy pickup for Joe Pride. He hasn’t run poorly in any of his four outings since he started calling Warwick Farm home. Not only is he incredibly consistent but the son of Zoustar is very tough and takes bad luck out of the equation by rolling forward in his races. He held off Zing two starts ago when winning at Randwick over 1400m before dropping back to 1300m last Saturday and riding a hot tempo set by Academy. Yet there he still was running second and for a moment it looked as if Nash Rawiller was going to lift him off the canvas to beat Dynamic Impact who had sailed down the outside. Loses Rawiller but gets 3kg off with Tyler Schiller.

Dangers: 2. Bergen’s last start third had similar merit. The six-year-old went toe-to-toe with Emerald Kingdom early and did a big job to only beaten a length by Exoboom. Yamazaki ran second with Quackerjack and Criaderas fourth and fifth. Jumps 8kg but this is more his right grade and Tim Clark jumps on. Might want 1600m now, however. It’s the same concern for 7. Blesk . He possesses a big finish but might be looking for a mile himself now third up. 3. Suave shouldn’t have too much trouble slotting in behind the leaders the way this race maps and is building a handy record. 8. Media Starguest and 9. Air To Air are capable on their day while 10. Francesco Guardi could be the sneaky improver.

How to play it: Zoushack WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Zoushack boxing on bravely last Saturday

All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday