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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Day One of The Championships at Royal Randwick.

The rail is in the True, the track is in the soft range and the first set to go at 12:10pm.

Everything lines up for 8. Athiri to be winning this. The heavy track in the Magic Night Stakes last start took away her best asset, her explosive finish. The Lonhro filly travelled into the straight like the winner and after dashing between the 400-200m, she failed to reel in subsequent Golden Slipper-winning stablemate Kiamichi. The last 100m of Athiri’s race also suggests the drop back to 1100m suits. This will only be her fourth run of the campaign, with James Cummings opted to skip the Golden Slipper with her. Only two starts ago she was equal favourite with Loving Gaby in the Blue Diamond. There is an abundance of speed engaged in the race and drawn barrier 2, James McDonald will be able to stalk the leaders. Looks one of the better bets of the day in a race with limited winning chances.

Dangers: Keep riding the royal blue wave as it’s not about to stop now. Athiri’s stablemate 1. Bivouac wasn’t far away in the Todman Stakes the last time we saw him, beaten 1.8L by Yes Yes Yes with Bellevue Hill in second. On what the rest of this field have done to date, albeit off limited exposed form, he is the only one with the runs on the board that can match Athiri. However, the 1100m on an improving track, he might find Athiri too sharp. Will be closing hard though. There was plenty of merit in the Hawkesbury effort of 5. Killin. He went down fighting to a race-fit Dresden Green and that horse matched it with 2. Stronger the start prior. He is 1300m back to 1100m but the blinkers go on.

How to play it: Athiri WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds)

Athiri’s third in the Magic Night behind Kiamichi

Chris Waller looks to have this race pretty well cornered. Siding with 3. Dealmaker. His record of one Kensington win as a two-year-old from his 11 outings doesn’t do him justice. The Dundeel colt was in the market in the G1 Rosehill Guineas but perhaps we found out there once and for all that he doesn’t get a strong 2000m. It was a heavy track, but even so, his finish was plugging. His two runs prior to that were very strong – a second in the Autumn Stakes at Caulfield beating home 1. Ringerdingding, who was first up, before very little separated the pair in the G1 Australian Guineas when they met at level weights (here it’s a 3kg swing to Dealmaker). Finishing within three lengths of Mystic Journey is as good a form reference for any three-year-old race let alone a Group Three.

Dangers: Ringerdingding, with James McDonald on, draws inside Dealmaker and although neither have the tactical speed to really hold a spot, Hugh Bowman should be able to dictate where McDonald can go. Have mapped them to settle down next to each other. Ringerdingding ran in the G1 George Ryder last start and was beaten out of site by Winx. The wet track and in that company make it forgivable. They certainly look the two on class and form. As for the rest, Waller’s third runner 5. The August will improve with the blinkers back on after they came off for the first time last start.

How to play it: Dealmaker WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Dealmaker can bounce back from the Rosehill Guineas

Forgive good horses one bad run and 3. Zalatte is a good filly. Chris Waller touted her as his next Unforgotten prior to the autumn having won three on the bounce to begin her career. It all went to plan first up in the G1 Surround where she did her best work late spearing through to run seventh behind Nakeeta Jane. Fundamentalist, El Dorado Dreaming, Mizzy and even Seabrook have all franked the form since. Her last 100m was particularly eye catching. It didn’t go quite so well second up. She never looked comfortable in the heavy 10 conditions in the Phar Lap and throw into the mix that she pulled up lame. It’s significant that she started second favourite in the race behind stablemate Verry Elleegant. Zalatte was scratched from the Vinery last week due to the wet track. Wise decision. Expect her to bounce back in a big way.

Dangers: 10. Romani Girl worked home well in the Kembla Grange Classic to run fourth. She was well beaten but if either one of Pohutukawa, Frankely Awesome or Scarlett Dream were here, they’d be favourite. Should relish the extra distance, as will 8. Welsh Legend, who was fifth at Kembla. 1. Princess Jenni is a last start Group Three winner (at Moonee Valley) and lumps 59kg here because of it but 2000m on a bigger track looks right up her alley. 6. Amangiri is a strong, momentum style of filly so the wide draw doesn’t put me off as much as the price does. She is a big player but beat China Gale at Hawkesbury last start and that horse has subsequently been well beaten. 9. Rocknavar looks to be humming on the strength of her recent Rosehill trial.

How to play it: Zalatte WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Zalatte’s run in the Surround Stakes two back

Will be interesting to see what the market does with 1. Noble Boy closer to jump given all of the noise earlier in the week about him working like he had come to the end of his preparation. Don’t think it can be underestimated how important some juice being in the Randwick track is to this four-year-old. He looked the real deal in his first up Highway win in February and his last start victory in the Muswellbrook Wild Card. Wedged in between those was a solid fourth at Goulburn on a Good 3. Sure, he didn’t have the smoothest of paths but was still entitled to find the line better than he did. Punters Intelligence reveals his last 200m of 11.86s was no better than that of the race winner 9. Al Mah Haha. Triumphant in five of his six starts, he fits the mould of past winners Artlee, Clearly Innocent and Victorem in being capable of going on to bigger and better things.

Dangers: On that winner Al Mah Haha, he isn’t without a hope here. A Good track and he’d be on top. He had no right to win at Goulburn given the ground he covered in the run and his form prior to that was rock solid. The Goulburn heat shaped to be the strongest lead in and tipping that to be the case. That gives 7. Bocelli a hope here too. 14. La Scopa made pretty easy work of her Grafton rivals to book her spot for Matt Dunn and has to be respected but so does the second horse there 12. Queen Of Kingston. She’ll spear forward and there is a sense of timing about her. 2. Unbiased will need luck from the draw but has the talent to win while 15. Lucciola Bella will be hitting the line.

How to play it: Noble Boy WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) and 1,2,3,12,14 BOX TRIFECTA

Noble Boy winning the Muswellbrook Wild Card

19. Supernova has shown plenty of zip in his two Australian starts for Team Hawkes and if he has that same turn off foot out to 2600m, he’ll win this and book his place in the G1 Sydney Cup which was pencilled in for him at the start of the preparation. The four-year-old won a BM78 last start so it’s easy to get carried away but only being seven starts into his career, he has so much more upside than most, if not all, of his rivals in this. Back in fifth in that race was subsequent Tulloch Stakes winner Angel Of Truth. Tracking back to his first up run he took ground off all the way winner Sondelon. When imports do that at their first start in the country, it pays to follow them. He has drawn perfectly for Brenton Avdulla to park him somewhere just forward of midfield. Off his five runs overseas, he’ll relish the extra trip.

Dangers: 14. Shraaoh was sent around favourite in the Manion Cup but a clever free-wheeling ride in front on Midterm dragged the sprint out of him. The six-year-old looked much more comfortable the start prior to that when charging late to run second to Hiyaam in a race she controlled proceedings from the front. At his first ever start for Chris Waller this galloper won brilliantly at Flemington over 2800m so distance is a big tick in his favour. He looms as the big danger. 2. The Taj Mahal wasn’t suited in behind runners in the Ranvet last start but liked the way he picked himself up again late. 1. Muntahaa has class on his side and can improve sharply on his Australian Cup run.

How to play it: Supernova WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)

Supernova winning at Rosehill last start

5. Bellevue Hill ticked the 1400m box in emphatic fashion last week at Rosehill in the Baillieu. At the tempo he went in front, he was there to be beaten late but kept finding to win comfortably. You have to go back to Excites in 2006 to find the last winner of that race to take out the Sires’ but countering that is that Gai Waterhouse has won this race a record seven times. What 10. Kiamichi does from her inside draw will have a large bearing on how this race unfolds for Bellevue Hill but given the Golden Slipper winner is on trial at the trip, doubt there will be a ‘lead at all costs’ game plan. If she hands up, he becomes very hard to run down. He proved his class in the Todman Stakes, running second to Yes Yes Yes. Tipping the handle bars go down a fair way out on Bellevue Hill to make this a real test.

Dangers: 12. Loving Gaby began well in the Golden Slipper but there was no spot for her from the wide draw. She covered ground in the run and didn’t corner well her first time Sydney way with nothing to help her around the bend. Love the way she kept running through the line. There is stamina on her dam side. Should be able to use the good draw to settle forward of midfield. 2. Microphone won’t have that same luxury from the wide gate. Not sure where he lands from there but it’s near impossible seeing him getting the charmed runs he has been afforded in his five starts to date. 1. Castelvecchio will be towards the tail which makes him a low percentage play but he could get out to silly odds. Possesses a big finish and we know will eat up the 1400m. Loathed to underestimate Kiamichi (again!) while 11. Probabeel was excellent in the Magic Night behind her. Then there is 13. Tenley. Back onto a Good track, I’d be tempted but a Soft? Hmm.

How to play it: Bellevue Hill EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Bellevue Hill winning the Baillieu last week

3. In A Twinkling has been shunned by the market after running midfield in the Tulloch last start but thought there was more merit to the run than first meets the eye. That was a heavy 10 and being a “big actioned horse” in James McDonald’s words after the race, the gelding didn’t fancy the going. Watch his last 50m though and the Fastnet Rock three-year-old is coming again on the line. He went enormous in the NZ Derby prior to that, making a wide early move before fighting out the finish. 4. Arrogant, 6. Surely Sacred, 7. Platinum Invader and 12. The Chosen One were all behind him but are all shorter in the market here. The further they went in the 2400m of the NZ Derby, the stronger he was. Like the wide draw as Opie Bosson will be able to slide across in his own time.

Dangers: Arrogant was outstanding matching motors with The Autumn Sun in the Rosehill Guineas. He’ll make his own luck and a repeat of that and he has to be in the finish again. Handles the wet and has clearly thrived in Australia. 5. Chapada hasn’t had much go his way recently. That theme continued last start when he was held up at the top of the straight. 11. Angel Of Truth was so strong at the end of 2000m in the Tulloch, which has provided the past two winners of the ATC Derby. He relished the wet track so the more rain the better for him. 2. Madison County is a fascinating runner. Punters Intelligence reveals he put himself in a position to win the Tulloch but peaked noticeably the last 200m. Was he simply in need of the run or does that put a question mark over him staying 2400m? In his defence it was a heavy track and he defied the early pattern of leaders being suited. Can win, especially if it’s a sit and sprint.

How to play it: In A Twinkling EACH WAY ($26 TAB Fixed Odds) and 2,3,4,5,11 BOX TRIFECTA

Last week’s Tulloch Stakes at Rosehill

You can set your watch to 2. Trapeze Artist showing up third up in his campaign. He has always been a ‘grand final horse’ and this is the race Gerald Ryan has targeted all autumn. His third up stats are a Black Opal romp, the most dominant Golden Rose win ever, third in the Randwick Guineas (didn’t get the mile) and a second in last year’s Everest despite being a Heavy 9. The other trick to this horse is that he thrives in high pressure races. Forget about him in sit and sprints. Blake Shinn cleverly created his own tempo in the Canterbury Stakes last start and the horse responded. He won’t get to the front here with 6. Ball Of Muscle and 11. Sunlight charging across from wide draws. Wouldn’t be too concerned if he ended up three wide rolling into the race when he want. Handles wet okay but the drier the better.

Dangers: 9. Shoals chased home Trapeze Artist in the Canterbury Stakes, running second. She just felt the pinch late. That race looks the deepest form reference for this year’s TJ with 4. Pierata coming out to just miss in the Galaxy and Doncaster favourite Brutal running second to Winx in the George Ryder. On Pierata, the wetter the better. If the track slides into the heavy range he becomes the horse to beat (and 1. Redzel comes into play too). Pierata’s Sydney Stakes romp, in faster time than The Everest, was also in heavy ground. 3. Santa Ana Lane wants the track to improve but we’ve learnt now to never estimate him. 7. Osborne Bulls is a beauty but is short enough in the market. What a race.

How to play it: Trapeze Artist WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)

Trapeze Artist beating Shoals in the Canterbury Stakes

Try as I might, I just can’t get away from 20. Brutal. The George Ryder has provided four of the past five Doncaster winners and this colt plummets in the weights to 49kg. As far as a lead in goes, you can’t do much more than run second to Winx, albeit beaten 3.5 lengths. He had no luck in his two runs prior to that when posted wide first up before being shuffled back in a deep edition of the Canterbury Stakes. His closing splits there were as good as anything in the race so it was no surprise to see him relish the 1500m of the Ryder. Glen Boss answered the SOS from Team Hawkes. Bossy has won a record six Doncasters already and four of them were with three-year-olds. Would be surprised if Brutal doesn’t improve again on what he did last start which makes him the horse to beat, despite the wide draw.

Dangers: 1. Hartnell is the Randwick mile track record holder setting the benchmark in last year’s Epsom, with 57kg. His form prior to the Doncaster this year is even better than it was when heading into the Epsom. He was outstanding hitting the line in the All Star Mile last start giving away 5kg to Mystic Journey. Can he beat Brutal giving away a whopping 9kg though? 3. Alizee is weighted right up to her best but she is a three time Group One winner. Blake Shinn clicked with her in the Expressway. Chris Waller has won a remarkable 6 of the past 11 Doncasters! Enter 10. Unforgotten, back from 2000m in the Ranvet, a tried stable formula, and 16. I Am Serious off a flop in the Coolmore but she is better than that. Can’t mention them all but will single out 4. Land Of Plenty, 6. Dixie Blossoms, 13. Aloisia and 18. Fundamentalist.

How to play it: Brutal WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)

Brutal’s second to Winx in the George Ryder

2. Fiesta is such a versatile filly so doubt the drop back from 1500m to 1200m will worry her. The daughter of I Am Invincible was chopped out in the G1 Coolmore last start and given a very easy time over the concluding stages. It certainly wasn’t a gut buster. The start prior to that she made her run with Nakeeta Jane in the Surround but peaked late being three weeks since her brilliant first up win at Warwick Farm and 1100m out to 1400m. Both of her last two starts were in Group One company and she started $5 and $12. Here she is back to a Group Three against her own sex and she is $8.50. That’s appealing for such a consistent horse. Handles all conditions, her record over the Randwick 1200m is 4:1-3-0 and Hugh Bowman should have her in a perfect midfield position from the draw.

Dangers: Perhaps 10. Madam Rouge is a sprinter? She has looked much more dynamic over the shorter trips to date. The drop back to 1200m suits after she had every chance in the Surround. 9. Mizzy is another filly coming through that same form line. She is never far away and don’t expect that to be the case here, just might lack the turn of foot back to this distance. 14. Into The Abyss didn’t fire a shot at Rosehill last start, albeit leader dominated, but she trialled brilliantly prior to her resumption. Probably wants 1400m but she’s a knockout. 1. Spanish Whisper is flying while want to track 8. Fiera Vista as she gets out in trip.

How to play it: Fiesta WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Fiesta winning first up at Warwick Farm over 1100m

All the fields, form and replays for Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday