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Tips by Brad Gray

Brad Gray's tips and insights for Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!

The rail is out 6m from the 1600m to the winning post and 4m the remainder. With rain forecast ahead of the weekend, the form has been done for a heavy track. The first jumps at 12.15pm.

There are a few unknowns here but taking a punt that Ron Quinton’s colt 1. Royal Celebration is talented enough to overcome them. Like most punters, I had him double marked in the blackbook after his courageous first up effort behind Gem Song, after being posted wide the trip throughout. Gem Song backed up to go down narrowly in the Dulcify last week so there is nothing wrong with that form. Going back to the unknowns though, the three-year-old has never raced on a wet track and untapped Melbourne raider 3. Yulong January is tricky to line up. The race looks to play out beautifully for Royal Celebration tucking in behind what should be a genuine tempo.

Danger: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace pinched the Breeders’ Plate last week and look to be having a real crack in Sydney at the moment. Yulong January was also accepted for Flemington (where it was dry) but have opted for this race. Although the colt has never seen a wet track it does suggest that the yard are supremely confident he’ll handle it. He has looked impressive in two Swan Hill wins and money came for him as soon as TAB put their markets up. 5. Tough Larry won well on debut, doing it at both ends and has plenty of scope. Don’t discount 2. Silent Explorer as he has been desperate for 1400m and handles the wet.

How to play it: Royal Celebration WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds)

Royal Celebration first up at Rosehill

Want to play 4. Ribs at the odds. This six-year-old had to loop the field at Moruya last start and did a good job to get as close as he did at the finish. That was behind 8. Rapture Miss but from the better draw, he can turn the tables. He has won on a heavy track before but a word of warning, it was a Nowra maiden. His Soft track runs since then have been solid enough to suggest a heavy Randwick track won’t pull him up though. That last start was the six-year-olds first crack at a mile too, so he has ticked that box now. His win prior was a dominant one. The Longmire-trained gelding hasn’t really fired a shot in his two previous cracks in Highways but there is a sense of timing about him this time.

Danger: 14. Vertex did a good job to nab third in a Highway last start behind Seeblume after being held up down the straight. Once she saw daylight he hit the line sweetly. The start prior to that he worked to the line strongly once more at Goulburn to run second behind the tearaway leader who clung on to win. Has won on a Soft 7 before and peaks now third up. She can win this and looks over the odds. Rapture Miss has won two of her past three with the miss in a Highway when she gave away an impossible start. Another winning chance.

How to play it: Ribs WIN ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX TRIFECTA 4,14,8

Ribs and Rapture Miss met at Moruya last start

3. Tamarack is holding his form well at the moment and doesn’t have to improve on what he has done in his past three outings to be winning this. Last start he chased home The Lord Mayor who controlled the race from the front, along with the second-placed Goodfella. His start prior to that he ran second on a heavy track at Rosehill behind Zourkhan. Even three back finishing within 2.6L of High Bridge reads well for this. The five-year-old will tuck in behind what looks a good speed headed by stablemate 2. Cosmologist who is a handy wet tracker himself. Tamarack has only won three from 19 but he won’t get a better chance to bring up win number four being hard fit and having ticked the wet track box.

Danger: Found it hard to split 10. Keep Up and Tamarack so suggest that punters play them both at the odds on offer. This former Kiwi has been building into his preparation nicely for Clare Cunningham including a second behind High Bridge last start at Warwick Farm. The start prior to that he finished a couple of lengths off Tamarack but liked the way he closed off. Keep Up will be at his top now fifth up and having won on a heavy track in New Zealand, a heavy Randwick will hold no fears. Victorian 9. Is Don Is Good has won his past two on wet tracks.

How to play it: Tamarack WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) and Keep Up WIN ($7)

Tamarack running third at Rosehill last start

If 4. Magic Alibi finds herself in the first couple soon after the start, she’s the horse to beat. That’s a big ‘if’ though as she has been tardy away in her last couple. There is precious little speed engaged in this race and imagine to be first or second in running would be Plan A. The six-year-old ran a big race last preparation after leading at Rosehill only to be collared by Princess Posh. This campaign to date she ran a great third in Group Two company behind Invincibella and Noire (with Champagne Cuddles back in fourth). She was able to drive up to be midfield after being slowly away there but wasn’t afforded that same luxury last start having drawn wide. That was in the Golden Pendant where they crawled in front. Her run was much better than it reads with Punters Intel revealing a 33.35s final 600m, the second quickest of the race.

Danger: 3. Just Dreaming could be the default leader here and that’ll give her every chance. She is first up but only had 10 weeks off having run in the Tatt’s Tiara over the Queensland winter and has two trials under her belt. Kicking her off at 1400m suggests Kris Lees has done plenty of work with her. That said, the five-year-old’s second up record is much more imposing than her first up record. She might feel the pinch late in the straight. 7. Insensata is in this up to her ears. Handles the wet, is fit, has form around the right horses. Her run in the Golden Pendant was very similar to Magic Alibi but doesn’t have the versatility to be forward.

How to play it: Magic Alibi WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and Insensata WIN ($7)

Magic Alibi and Insensata weren’t suited last start

Tipped 5. Instant De Reve last start but with the benefit of hindsight, suspect I went off a run too early. Now with three runs under his belt, Jay Ford should have the confidence to head forward from the wide draw on the French import. The six-year-old is certainly fit enough now. His best overseas form was when he was let roll along. He was posted wide last start behind Muraaqeb and boxed on to finish midfield. In his start prior to that he had no luck and arguably should have figured in the finish. The other element in his favour here is the likelihood of a wet track. The Chris Waller-trained gelding won over the mile in France on a heavy track in September last year. He just needs to settle, and in a race lacking speed, think the best way he’ll do that is from in front.

Danger: The wetter the better for 9. Zourkhan. He is back to 1600m off an 1800m win but has been kept fresh. Suspect Chris Waller has decided the seven-year-old is best kept to distances around this mile range as opposed to over staying trips. He has won four from seven on wet tracks and James McDonald rides. Have got plenty of respect for 13. Data Point with just 50kg on his back. He is a swimmer, up from Victoria, but just doesn’t make a habit of winning. The taflent is certainly there though, showing glimpses throughout what has been a frustrating career.

How to play it: Instant De Reve WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)

Instant De Reve was trapped wide last start

3. Jonker missed the Golden Rose with an elevated temperature but the three-year-old must be showing trainer David Adkins all of the right signs to be here in the Roman Consul. It’s always tricky trying to assess horses off a little setback but he is the horse to beat on the strength of his effort in The Run To The Rose. He ran along at good clip, with Punters Intel revealing his first 600m was 36.19s which is a good clip on a heavy track, and still there at the finish. He managed to back off a touch between the 600-400 with a 12.23 but it was still an excellent effort to only be beaten a length at the finish by Lean Mean Machine and Graff at the finish. He looked to scoot through the wet without any trouble at all there. 1. Sandbar was back in fifth, failing to handle to conditions as well as Jonker.

Danger: Sandbar is a bulldog and too honest to discount but the wetter the track the more his chances deteriorate. He went super in the Golden Rose, running fourth, but that was a Good 4. I’ve got 2. Aylmerton right in the mix here with the blinkers on for the first time. He stepped out for the first time for Hayes and Dabernig at Caulfield back in September 1 and nothing went right. He missed the kick, was hunted up and raced wide. He hasn’t been sighted since. He won on a Soft 7 at Canterbury when under previous trainer Jean Duboius albeit in maiden grade. 8. Spin was okay in the Danehill last start at Flemington but his trial since was a beauty.

How to play it: Jonker WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)

Let's not forget how good Jonker was in The Run To The Rose!

Ahead of Saturday's Roman Consul Stakes, @BradJGray puts the speedy three-year-old under the Punters Intel Spotlight @tabcomau @royalrandwick pic.twitter.com/VKwa8yWNkO

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 3, 2018

Tried to find something to beat 1. Thinkin’ Big but he’s hard to poke too many holes in. The clincher is that there again isn’t a lot of pressure in the race. He should control things from the front once more and as we know, he has a turn of foot when left alone. He was a dominant winner of the Gloaming Stakes last start and that was eight weeks between runs. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott had him ready to go but can only go forward again off that. Four of the past six winners of this race have won the Gloaming/Spring Champion double. He has a heavy track win at Canterbury, which I know is a different kettle of fish to a Randwick wet track, but at least it gives an indication that he’ll handle it.

Danger: 2. Tarka chased home Thinkin’ Big in the Gloaming to run second. He might be able to settle a length closer to him here from barrier 2. He’s a tough, honest little horse. The blinkers go on for the first time and he ticked the wet track box by beating 5. Dealmaker in the Stan Fox two back. Dealmaker missed the run in the Gloaming with an elevated temperature but his run in the Stan Fox was a beauty. It’s a big ask here having missed the run but he’s too classy to discount. 12. Frankley Awesome has been exactly that in her two wins to date. Has been thrown in the deep end here but Kris Lees wouldn’t be running her here if he didn’t think she was up to it. The closing splits of her Scone win suggest she is up to the task.

How to play it: Thinkin’ Big WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Thinkin’ Big dominating the Gloaming Stakes

5. I Am Serious has run placings behind AvilIus in her last two outings. That’s outstanding form for this. The most recent of those was over 2000m in the Kingston Town Classic when beaten a length by Avilius and finishing alongside Brimham Rocks, with Patrick Erin back in fourth. Those latter two ran one-two in the G1 Metrop last Saturday. Don’t think the drop back to the mile hurts her, in fact, I see it as a positive. It’s a formula Chris Waller has used with great success in the past. This lightly-raced mare loves the wet, is hard fit and gets in with 54kg. The only query is barrier 1. James McDonald will need to be on his game, assuming the fence is a no-go zone as is so often the case when it’s a wet track at Randwick.

Danger: 1. Dixie Blossoms was well beaten in the Golden Pendant last time out but didn’t set up at all for her with 2. Shumookh crawling and dominating the finish. It was a deceptively good run. That won’t be the case here with 8. Mandylion rolling along in front. Reckon we’ll see Christian Reith use the draw to be closer too. Still remember the day she won on a Heavy 10 at Randwick from the front! She loves Randwick (10:4-1-3) and has already won this race the last two years. Can see 7. All Too Soon running a big race on a wet track.

How to play it: I Am Serious WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds)

"She is rock hard fit, loves the wet and gets in with 54kg..."@BradJGray expects this mare, with Avilius form, to take out the Angst Stakes making her his best bet at @royalrandwick. @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/rGvC9HvZZD

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 5, 2018

The Victorian 10. Arties Dreamwinner will either take up the running herself or park just in behind the speed. She was a dominant winner at Morphettville two back on a Soft 7, sitting handy before kicking clear to win by a widening 3.3 lengths. In her latest effort she gave a sight at Caulfield, which was on a Good surface. The winner there Mrs Gardenia has since run second in the Group Two Stock Stakes behind I Am A Star. She has just 53.5kg on her back after the claim of Fred Kersley. In her only heavy track outing she skipped through the Heavy 10 conditions at Geelong to win by a length. It’s the first Sydney runner for Horsham-based trainer Paul Preusker, who also trains Magic Consol.

Danger: 4. Za Zi Ba may have looked a touch disappointing at the midweeks last start but the form out of the race is strong. Corusctae is handy while Piracy and Fuel who finished third and fourth both won their next starts. She gets through the wet and her win two back at Rosehill was dominant. Can make a case for 8. Argent D'Or. He handles the wet and the shrinking field means he won't be too far away. 5. Warranty was very good first up and a win here wouldn't shock either.

How to play it: Arties Dreamwinner WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Za Zi Ba’s last start Canterbury second

Check out all the fields, form and replays for Royal Randwick on Saturday.