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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.

The rail is out 6m and the form has been done for a Good track.

Have been waiting on the return of 10. Harto , on the back of three sneaky trials. She’s finished near last in all three hitouts but had a lot more to offer. The well-bred four-year-old, by Fastnet Rock out of More Strawberries, is 44 weeks between runs but showed in her first two runs what she is capable of. She atoned for a luckless debut second at Warwick Farm with a dominant win at Gosford beating Longbottom over 1100m. All of the early money has been for this mare but the tale will be the last five or 10 minutes of betting. If she stays hard in the market, it’s a further indication that she is ready to go first up. Note that she is aggressively placed here too, being a benchmark 66 rater in a BM78 at the start of a carnival. There might be something to be read into that indicating she might have a role to play in better races than this.

Dangers: 4. Athiri just missed behind 3. Fanciful Dream three weeks ago but shouldn’t have too much trouble turning the tables, as the market is predicting. She was first up on a Heavy 10 against some hard fit horses and like the way she closed. Her strike rate is starting to get away from her though, winning just one from 12. Has to give away 5kg to Harto given she mixed it in Group races as a two-year-old. James McDonald rides and she has drawn the inside peg. She’s the obvious danger and would be surprised if one of those two don’t win this.

How to play it: Harto WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Harto winning at Gosford back in October last year

13. Clearly Regal is nearly a year between runs but like the way this four-year-old with Goulburn-based trainer Kurt Goldman has been trialling this time back. The son of Hallowed Crown has trialled twice, once at Canberra when given an easy time on a heavy track before cruising to the line in behind Trekking and Greyworm at Rosehill. The son of Hallowed Crown has been hard to catch in his six start career, either winning or disappointing but both of his victories have been on the back off a freshen. Granted, not a 45 week spell which is what confronts him here but he looks well placed in a very even Highway Handicap after we lost the odds on favourite It’s Me due to the wide gate. Clearly Regal has drawn to get the run of the race and the good track suits. He’ll get his chance.

Dangers: 5. Absolute Trust is equally lightly-raced and has already run second in a Highway back in January out to 1500m. That was on a heavy track and he gave a big kick in the straight after leading before being gunned down late. He won’t have it his own way in front here though. That plays into the hands of closers 1. Tim’s Principal and 3. Feel The Knight. The latter will be much more at home on a dry track. He hasn’t had much luck at this level in the past. If he gets the breaks, he can win. 9. Southern Appeal has the talent to give this a shake while 4. Tower Road goes in the wider multiples.

How to play it: Clearly Regal EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Clearly Regal trialling at Rosehill on Monday

9. Raison D’Etre won her maiden in emphatic style first up this preparation, going straight to the front and scooting clear at Canterbury. She was aided by the track bias and being able to control the race but there was plenty of quality about the way she quickened. The daughter of Exceed And Excel finally delivered on the talent she had teased to possess in her first racing preparation when a luckless second behind Forbidden Love on debut, nipping home in fast time. She subsequently failed at start number two when odds on but it was too bad to be true and she was tipped straight out. Down to 52kg and mapped to sit one out one back, she’s the horse to beat in a deep race. Out of a mare that ran second in a Wakeful, if she wins here expect her to line up in the Tea Rose and Flight Stakes.

Dangers: This is the race Chris Waller kicked Funstar off in last year and he uses it again 12 months later for 8. Giovanna Run. It was won by Yao Dash while Emeralds, Pandemic, Superium, Maddi Rocks and Pretty Brazen were there too. Giovanna Run cruised to the line in a barrier trial win since taking advantage of the leader friendly Kensington track back in July. 5. Air To Air stamped herself as a mare to follow at the backend of last preparation when taking late ground off Dawn Passage in the Inglis Guineas. Her trials have been outstanding. It’s just whether she’ll find 1300m a touch sharp but would be surprised if she isn’t the horse with the flashing light late. The chances don’t end there.

How to play it: Raison D’Etre WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Raison D’Etre winning at Canterbury last start

If the world’s best sprinter is ever going to be beaten this preparation, it’s here first up over 1000m in a race where he won’t get control. Enter 2. Gytrash. He’ll stalk the speed and get the last crack at those motoring along up front. The five-year-old beat 1. Nature Strip fresh up last spring when winning the G1 Lightning Stakes down the Flemington straight. There is something to be said for the SPs there with Nature Strip jumping $1.45 and Gytrash $21 but he was still improving at that point and his record over this short course trip is exceptional (7:6-1-0). After that win Gytrash raced in another three Group Ones sprints with the exception being the Irwin Stakes in Adelaide where he sat wide but made a mess of Sunlight to win by three lengths ears pricked. Love the way the Gordon Richards-trained gelding went through the line in his Warwick Farm trial alongside Fasika.

Dangers: Chris Waller has vowed to learn from his mistake first up last preparation with Nature Strip conceding that he didn’t respect the 1000m enough. Nothing will be taken for granted this campaign fitness-wise. However, Joe Pride has declared his hand already with 3. Ball Of Muscle and it will be handle bars down. Nature Strip’s asset isn’t his blistering early speed but his ability to just keep building and building. He breaks his rival’s hearts. In the last three races he hasn’t led he has finished 5th, 4th and 4th. On his day Nature Strip is unbeatable, and his trials have been outstanding this time back, but he is as one dimensional as he is temperamental. Ultimately, it all comes down to price and there’s enough there to oppose him at $1.40.

How to play it: Gytrash WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Gytrash trialling alongside Fasika

It’s a leap of faith but we’re getting a big price to find out with 3. Fun Fact. He ran 12th first up at Randwick in what looks the logical form race for this but he was only beaten four lengths. The five-year-old grey drew wide on that occasion having to work hard to cross, albeit getting a midrace breather but the damage was already done and he blew out the last 200m with 60.5kg on his back. The free-rolling gelding has jumped out of the ground second up in the past, comparative to what he has done fresh. This is a better set up, dropping 3kg, drawn low and on a firmer track. The better shape of race for him is controlling the race early before cranking up the pressure at the 800m. Josh Parr sticks and has won on Fun Fact twice before already. If he can pinch a break on his rivals turning for home (like Frosty Rocks a few weeks back) he can give some cheek at odds.

Dangers: 13. Kinane can improve sharply on what he did first up. He ran on into fifth behind 15. McCormack in a race that provides the bulk of the runners here. It was perhaps the run of a horse looking for 2000m but we know this four-year-old has a touch of quality. The barrier doesn’t help and he only rises an extra 100m, hence it’s hard to have him on top. Reluctant to overlook the obvious, that being last start winner McCormack. 8. Think It Over just missed to run second but his past form suggests he can flatten off second up before getting over further. 12. Just Thinkin’ can only strip fitter from his first up run dragging the field up to Fun Fact. Faces the same task here. Would respect any market confidence around 11. Across Dubai.

How to play it: Fun Fact WIN ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Fun Fact knocking up first up

Was impressed with the manner in which 10. Forbidden Love beat her older rivals at Canterbury first up. She was aided by a rails friendly track but she was as impressive on the clock as she was to the eye, running five lengths faster time than Raison D’etre, the filly she also beat on debut back in March. The daughter of All Too Hard filly did it at both ends first up too. It was the win of a horse that can keep progressing. In her first preparation she was found out second up in the Percy Sykes on a wet track but still wasn’t beaten far by some of her key rivals here. By all reports she was slight in stature and trained off into her first racing campaign. Terrified of 3. Hungry Heart but she’s a touch vulnerable here. If Hungry Heart’s beaten though, can’t see if being a horse coming from behind her hence making a case for Forbidden Love.

Dangers: If this group of fillies don’t beat Hungry Heart in this first up over 1200m, they’re all running for second already in the Tea Rose (1400m) and Flight Stakes (1600m). The daughter of Frankel fits the bill as Chris Waller’s next Funstar. And before that it was Unforgotten, Winx, Verry Elleegant, the list goes on. 5. Vangelic was only beaten 1.5L by Away Game when we last saw her and behind her there was Silver Shadow winner 1. Dame Giselle (and Forbidden Love). 11. Chianti ran slower time than 2. Stellar Pauline when winning at Hawkesbury first up but they were very differently run races. Was impressed how Chianti put her rivals away despite covering ground.

How to play it: Forbidden Love EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Forbidden Love leading all the way at Canterbury first up

If there was the cut out of the ground, 10. Angel Of Truth would just about be unbeatable here given the way this race sets up. Can’t see any other way, other than this year’s Chelmsford being on speed dominated given the lack of obvious leaders. So the only knock on Angel Of Truth is that four of his five wins have come on wet tracks, with the one good track winning coming in a Kembla maiden where he fell in at $19. Nobody missed the first up run of this five-year-old, his first for Team Hawkes, running a slashing second behind Man Of Peace over 1400m with a last 200m some two lengths quicker than the next best (Punters Intelligence). He settled midfield there but this is a very different set up and suspect we’ll see him lead.

Dangers: 3. Mister Sea Wolf looks the main threat as the evergreen nine-year-old comes out of a hot Missile Stakes won by Eduardo. Jumps straight out to the mile second up but it’s a similar preparation that saw him win the Shannon Stakes and The Gong in the past. Importantly, he shouldn’t be far away from the low draw. 2. Finche ran a fading fifth in this last year but that was after chasing tearaway leader Samadoubt throughout. Will get a much cosier time of it this time around, albeit with plenty of improvement still to come being on a Cups path. Could 14. Nettoyer find herself closer than normal? Look for 13. Zebrowski late as there’s a big race in him this carnival. Have to risk 1. Avilius on where he’ll be in the run and on a form deck.

How to play it: Angel Of Truth WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"Out to the mile second up dictating from in front looks a perfect scenario for him."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray is looking at the G2 Chelmsford for his best of Saturday's @royalrandwick meeting @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/Q5CjrxOuzd

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 3, 2020

Remember thinking that it was very hard to get a line on the trials of 9. Reloaded last preparation before he mixed it with the likes of Brandenburg, Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio as an autumn three-year-old. That’s not the case this time back with the now four-year-old really catching the eye in his two hit outs. By all reports, he has come on in leaps and bounds since last campaign. He is Epsom-bound this carnival, as are many here, but he sets up beautifully in this first up over 1400m on a good track, from a perfect draw and with James McDonald steering. The son of Snitzel maps to camp in behind the two leaders 1. Dreamforce and 11. Greysful Glamour. He led by default himself in a couple of the three-year-old features last preparation but looks better suited with a back to follow. Shouldn’t have any excuses.

Dangers: Dreamforce is the class runner here and is exceptionally well placed under the conditions with just a 4kg spread between top and bottom. At his best, the eight-year-old would blow these away. The query is just how much that first up run took out of him, riding a brutal speed in the G1 Winx Stakes. He presents here just two weeks later. We’ll never know if 7. Looks Like Elvis would’ve won the Show County first up but he certainly wouldn’t have finished last! You could have thrown a blanket over the field crossing the line. He can only come on again from that outing. The jury is still out on 2. Kolding while happy to bet around 4. Collette at the early price over 1400m. 6. Glenall isn’t the worst at big odds. He’s no star but always underrated by the market.

How to play it: Reloaded WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Reloaded’s latest barrier trial

Had 12. Icebath pegged as a winner second up in this grade and now Masked Crusader has been scratched, she certainly gets her chance. The four-year-old just missed behind 6. Zakat first up but with a 2kg swing, the run under her belt and a barrier that can see her settle in front of that rival this time, she shouldn’t have too much trouble turning the tables. The pace slackened in the mid-stages a fortnight ago and that probably cost her winning. Punters Intelligence shows that she clocked the fastest 200m closing splits all the way from the 600m home with a last 600m (34.28s) 1.5L faster than the next best. Brad Widdup tested her in black type races last perpetration and with any luck she’d have knocked one of those off. Even with no Masked Crusader, there are still a couple of handy horses here but she is definitely better than BM78 grade.

Dangers: 4. Cristal Breeze wasn’t far away in that same race behind Zakat and Icebath and could improve again getting back on top of the ground for the first time in Australia. He was four weeks between runs, James McDonald sticks and he maps to get the run of the race. 14. Best Stone was well beaten behind Zakat last start but the drier track helps her cause and she looks to get complete control from in front. That makes her dangerous. Outside of that, 10. Mirra Vision looks the best of the rest.

How to play it: Icebath WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Icebath just missing behind Zakat

All the fields, form and replays for Randwick on Saturday