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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.

The rail is out 2m and the form has been done for a Soft/Heavy track.

1. Frosty Rocks beat his rivals by the length of the straight at Warwick Farm last time out, putting a whopping 8.3L on the second placed Hit The Target. A horse that had been flying prior to that, running fast time himself. Frosty Rocks ran an overall time seven lengths quicker than what Threeood clocked over 1300m 35 minutes earlier. It was a lovely ride from Nash Rawillier, who sticks here fourth up, asserting control of the race from the jump, pinching a little breather between the 600-400, before putting the foot back down running 11.56 between the 400-200. He than had the arrogance to also clocking the fastest last 200m in the race. It was an outstanding win. Wouldn’t expect Frosty Rocks to replicate what he did last start, probably regressing slightly, but he won’t have to win this too.

Dangers: 7. Fashchanel is six weeks between runs since making light work of a BM64 field at Kembla Grange first up. She was expected to win, with an SP of $1.75. The lightly-raced filly has the scope to work through the grades but note that John O’Shea has already scratched her a few times recently to dodge heavy tracks. 10. Vienna Rain struck a bottomless track at Kembla last start and went under as the $1.65 favourite. Be very forgiving of that. Blinkers go on and she’ll bounce back. 3. Café Royal has been expertly placed by Nathan Doyle to date, winning four of her five starts but we’ll know where she stands after Saturday, having her first crack in town.

How to play it: Frosty Rocks WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

"There is every chance he does regress slightly but even allowing for that, he should be winning again."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray expects an in form grey to get punters off to a flyer at @rosehillgardens @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/kbG2i3nT2J

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 26, 2020

Luck has deserted 6. Rich And Shameless all preparation but he looks very well placed on Saturday for Scone-based trainer Scott Singleton, who is chasing back-to-back Highway Handicaps after Partners proved too slick last week. This three-year-old gelding fluffed the start first up before being forced to travel three deep the trip at his next two runs from wide draws. One of those was in a deep Class 2 on his home deck, where Darleb and Bollywood filled the minors. In his most recent run, which was only on Monday, he was shuffled back in the pack giving away an impossible start but love the way he ran through the line to claim second. Drawn low, he can settle much closer in the run and only has to hold his form to be fighting out the finish at big odds.

Dangers: 18. Dream Runner is two from two to kick off his career, the knocks being back to 1400m from the mile and the form out of his last start Canberra win failing to stand up since. Beware the unbeaten horse though. Matt Dunn is well represented again with two runners. 7. Rothenburg gets the blinkers back on, draws to settle much closer than we’ve seen in his two runs back and James McDonald rides. 1. Emma’s Jet has a wide draw and a big weight to contend with but he’s capable of rattling home to get into the money. 9. Sebago has returned in great form for Jenny Graham and 1400m now looks ideal.

How to play it: Rich And Shameless EACH WAY ($21 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Rich And Shameless last Monday

2. Ablaze has won his past five starts, w the latest of those two over the jumps. Since being transferred from across the ditch to Ciaron Maher and David Eustace the hard nut eight-year-old has won seven of his nine starts. The last time we saw the son of Raise The Flag he won the Grand Annual over 5500m. The query thrown around during the week is that if he’ll find the 3200m too short! James McDonald will be aware that he is on very fit horse and one that’d do an extra couple of laps at the end of two miles if asked. He’ll punch him out to make it a test for his rivals. Whether he leads or takes a trail behind last start winner 4. Terwilliker probably doesn’t change things much, as long as he has clear air to sustain his last 1000m. The stable won the 2018 St Leger with jumper Big Blue, as a reference point.

Dangers: 5. Re Edit needs the track to dry out. Last start at Randwick she copped a few bumps in the run but produced a grinding finish, unable to quicken. The track was rated a Soft 7 but times suggested it was a heavy deck. She has a turn of foot none of these can match, as we saw two back when she savaged the line on a much drier surface. 1. Sweet Thomas sat outside of the lead in the Winter Cup but was horribly unsuited by the muddling tempo as he doesn’t have a turn of foot. He ran fourth in the Sydney Cup recently, out to this trip. 3. Gayatri and 7. Loveseat rate mentions in a tricky contest.

How to play it: Ablaze WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

14. Fulmina was just touched off by 12. Zing last start at Warwick Farm, where they gapped the rest of the field. They are two progressive staying types and look exceptionally well placed here right down in the weights. Imagine that Fulmina is given a dig early by Rachel King to take up a spot from the low draw which should see her settle a pair or two closer in the run than Zing. Fulmina drops down from 58kg to 52.5kg for this and meets Zing 2.5kg better off. Zing had the extra run under her belt too, being third up. Liked the way Fulmina put her rivals away at Newcastle first up while she beat Oaks winner Colette when breaking her maiden at the backend of last preparation.

Dangers: Zing will relish the 1800m on what she has done to date, jumping out of the ground when Chris Waller has tested at the mile in her latest two starts. She’s still untapped and will be savaging the line. Don’t want to be too quick to sack 2. Itz Lily, on the back of one poor run. She was plain last start but her two runs prior to that were excellent. She’s two from two fourth up so should be at her top now. 16. Word For Word got her dues last start and looks well placed out to 1800m, albeit with 60kg. 11. Azarmin has returned well and is one for multiples at double figure odds.

How to play it: Fulmina WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Zing ($5.50) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Zing and Fulmina duking it out at Warwick Farm

9. You Make Me Smile’s second up record reads much better than his first up record but that comes down to tactics. In the past he has been ridden with cover first up, which he resents. Second up he has been let stride and he is a different horse. It’s a fine balance though because if Tommy Berry fires him out he’ll fight his rider. The barrier certainly offers up the option of taking up the running if they want it, though. First up last preparation the five-year-old was truckloaded in betting to start $3.10F but after Goldfinch crossed him and backed the speed off, he raced fiercely. The 1100m is short of his best distance range but he loves wet tracks and gets in this race with just 53.5kg. Was held together in his two trials. Throw all of that into the mixer, and although it’s a race with so many uncertainties, he’s certainly worth a ticket at the early double figure odds.

Dangers: 3. Embracer won three from five last preparation but is a control freak. His fate will be known in the first 300m. Tim Clark will no doubt come out running but a couple of horses underneath him will have a big say on where he gets to in the run. 4. Roheryn is three from three first up and with so much speed engaged in this, will get the last crack at his rivals. The query is whether he’ll be able to stay within striking distance over 1100m at Rosehill. One time Silver Slipper winner 1. Time To Reign is the unknown in this. Has had tie-back surgery since his Flemington failure back in January, so had an excuse there. Has trialled well but want to see him do it on the track now.

How to play it: You Make Me Smile WIN ($8 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

You Make Me Smile and Time To Reign trialling

Thought 13. Primitivo was the hidden run of the day at Randwick first up given the circumstances. He was off an eight week freshen on a heavy track, in a fast run race and made his run in the worst ground. It was the meeting where you needed to be scraping the outside fence. Having settled last in the run the five-year-old went from 13th to 4th from the 800m to the 400m having cut the corner and presented like he was going to be in the finish but hit a wall late to run sixth. Punters Intelligence shows his 800-600m split of 11.78s was 1.5L faster than any other runner. It’s little wonder he produced a 13.44s last 200m. He can drift in and out of form, and might still be half a run short with John Thompson eyeing off the Grafton Cup, but he looks dangerous down on 53kg and drawn to be a lot closer in running.

Dangers: 1. Wu Gok is now seven from eight on heavy tracks at 1900m and beyond after fighting back to win the Winter Cup last start. Interestingly, the one defeat came at the hands of Primitivo. The six-year-old has just about raced his way out of this grade of race, being asked to lump 61kg but 2000m on a wet track is his bread and butter. The drop back in trip isn’t ideal for 4. Carzoff but he showed great zip at the end of 2400m last time out. 7. Sully has improved sharply third up out to 2000m in his past two preparations so imagine this has been a target race. Hasn’t seen a wet track in three years either! 12. Attention Run appears to race best fresh so looks some risk in reproducing her big first up win.

How to play it: Primitivo EACH WAY ($19 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Was there more to Primitivo's return than meets the eye? 👁️@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to make a case for him at odds in Saturday's McKell Cup @rosehillgardens @tabcomau @JTRacingRwik pic.twitter.com/SeZZfiJglU

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 25, 2020

Bear with me while I make the case for 8. Trumbull (again). He has beaten himself more often than not this preparation but last start he was just downright unlucky. The four-year-old began well by his standards but couldn’t get clear from the 400-200m but when finally out he ate into the winning margin of True Detective. Unsurprisingly, his last 200m of 11.89s was the quickest in the race (Punters Intelligence). Tommy Berry is his fifth jockey this preparation and coming off a four-timer at Randwick last Saturday, might be the man for the job. Last start was run to suit the backmarkers but there’s good speed on paper here too and it’s hard to make a case for anything that he beat home there turning the tables. That puts him in the finish once more.

Dangers: 1. Home Of The Brave wasn’t ridden to his strength last start, which is being let stride free. The eight-year-old has only won one race in Australia, the Theo Marks (Rosehill 1300m). That was a wet track and he was rated brilliantly in front to beat D’argento and Trapeze Artist. It was two years ago but a repeat of that sees him blitz this field. 2. Crack Me Up was ridden upside down in the Stradbroke when fired out to ride the speed. Scrap that run. His run prior to that when a fast finishing fourth behind Snitz, sees him more than competitive here. 14. Toryjoy didn’t get much room first up having been well supported late. Doesn’t map to get control but she’ll run well.

How to play it: Trumbull WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Trumbull was luckless again last start

8. Hit The Target sets up well here. The five-year-old had the task of carting the field up to Frosty Rocks last start yet still comfortably held off the rest his rivals. His form suggests he is more at home on firmer ground but he showed last start he can get through the wet well enough. Prior to that he was gunned down by Luna Mia in track record time at Scone while three back he smashed to clock when running his rivals into the ground at Bathurst. Back in a distant third there was Regal Stage. The Stephen Jones-trained galloper presents a very fit horse here and with only 6. Knowitall Jack up front for company, Kerrin McEvoy should be able to control the race. At Bathurst he was off and gone turning for home and if similar tactics are adopted here, he could be hard to peg back.

Dangers: 1. Spencer is racing as well as ever, despite being winless this preparation. He backs up here having led at Randwick last Saturday, beaten 0.4L at the finish running third. Out to 1500m suits and although he won’t get his favourite dry conditions either, he does race well at Rosehill (3:1-1-0). Can 7. Monegal reproduce what she did first up? Well, you’re still getting a tempting price to find out. Was dominant last start, is suited out in trip and maps well. 2. Night Of Power was solid first up probably not in the best ground but will need to improve sharply.

How to play it: Hit The Target WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Hit The Target winning at Bathurst three starts ago

5. Kordia has been on the sidelines for a year but James Cummings and Godolphin will have poured the work into this smart three-year-old. He’s the horse here with untapped upside being a winner of two of his three career starts, one of which was at Listed level in Queensland. That was the last time we saw the Epaulette gelding in action, other than in two trials since. Loved the way he moved through the line to win the latest of those hitouts at Hawkesbury, albeit against rivals he had every right to be putting away. The barrier looks a touch sticky on paper but there is a stack of speed in the race and James McDonald does the steering. A three-wide running line would be ideal. His breeding (half to swimmer Kanzan) suggests he should get through the wet.

Dangers: 4. Prairie Fire probably isn’t ideally placed 1000m out to 1200m but his run was excellent last Saturday behind Witherspoon. After drawing wide he was dragged back to last and was still on the back foot when asked to accelerate. Once he clicked through his gears he clocked the fastest last 400m of the race (Punters Intelligence). Prior to that he ran second to Lost And Running. He’s a little distance query but will get every chance from the soft draw. 11. Malea Magic is hard fit, makes her own luck and is well placed again. 1. Echo Jet was okay in a deeper race than this first up.

How to play it: Kordia WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Kordia trialling at Hawkesbury recently

All the fields, form and replays for Rosehill on Saturday