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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Kembla Grange.

The rail is out 5m from the 1100m to the winning post and 2m the remainder. The form has been done for a good track.

It was one way traffic late in betting for 6. Philipsburg last start but he never say daylight. Josh Parr was of the opinion that the horse wasn’t travelling well enough to take a small gap but we’ll never know. Would be surprised if anything was left to chance this time. Imagine Rachel King’s instructions will be to lead, and if you can’t lead, give him plenty of room. The four-year-old is a grinding type of horse best put into the race early and let his stamina see it out. Trainer James Ponsonby has freshened up the gelding since then with four weeks between runs. Long story short though is Philipsburg jumped $2.40 last start, running an inconclusive ninth, and despite this being no harder we are getting substantially better odds. Worth another chance.

Dangers: .1. Rari is by far the highest rated runner in the field. At three, when trained by Greg Hickman, he ran seconds to Chat, Subpoenaed and Rubisaki. Hasn’t quite reached those heights since and has a wide draw to contend with but have always thought he was a horse best ridden ‘ugly’. 13. Princess De Roca and 3. Brother Bassy next best.

How to play it: Philipsburg WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Philipsburg was luckless last start

1. Mankayan was still ninth at the 400m mark second up out to 2000m at Kembla Grange but nobody missed his last 200m once he clicked through to top gear. Punters Intelligence reveals that the six-year-old's last 200m split was only bettered by Great House. When trained in the UK he never even raced below 2400m so he should be coming into his own now out to this trip. Hugh Bowman sticks and was of the opinion that he still needs adapt to the Australian way of racing. The gelding’s first run in Australia was equally eye catching, albeit not quite as impressive as it was to the naked eye, but it certainly flagged him as an import that will be winning races at BM78 level when he gets out to his right trip. No excuses on Saturday, he needs to deliver.

Dangers: 2. Off Shaw was on trial at 2000m last start and was beaten a nostril. He steps into unknown territory again out to 2400m, and carries 3kg more, but he is a very fit horse and looks to own this race from the front again. He reunites with Kerrin McEvoy, who won on him three starts ago. 5. Master Shuhood continues to race well regardless of the grade, coming off a Listed fourth in the Wyong Cup. 3. Shuffle Up was too bad to be true last start.

How to play it: Mankayan WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Mankayan last start over 2000m

4. Crystal Pegasus chased a brutal speed at Kembla Grange last start and despite being six weeks between runs, still put his rivals away in track record time. He was feeling the pinch the last 100m but his fitness was entitled to give out sooner given the tempo of the race. Prior to that he had chased home Wicklow. The five-year-old arrived in Australia with lofty expectations and looks set to deliver now, as he works his way through the staying ranks. It’s easy to overlook that he’s only had four starts in Australia. The son on Australia rises 2.5kg after winning his third race but stays in the same grade. There’s a query around where the speed will come from in this, so he’s not going to enjoy the same set up as four weeks ago, but he has the scope to overcome that.

Dangers: Eager to see what 9. Yiyi can do back out to 2000m. He has returned a much better horse this preparation. Had his third run in a row at 1500m last start which probably told at the finish, with the four-year-old grinding his way into second in a tight four-way go. History suggests he much prefers wet tracks, however. 13. Toomuchtobear didn’t exactly savage the line behind Yiyi last start but he could land in front in this which will see him give cheek. 1. Pesto was one paced over the mile first up but jumps straight out to 2000m and has trialled sweetly since. 11. Bazooka finally draws a gate to park closer. Everything about the set up for 3. Our Intrigue screams no but how do you ever discount McDonald and Waller?

How to play it: Crystal Pegasus WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Crystal Pegasus winning last start

5. Barossa Rosa’s second to Great News back in March jumps off the page when assessing her chances first up in BM72 company. The four-year-old made the running in Gosford’s Provincial Championship qualifier and kicked clear at the top of the straight only for Kim Waugh’s gun mare to mow her down late. She held the rest comfortably. Tracey Bartley thereafter had a throw at the stumps in the G3 PJ Bell over The Championships. The daughter of Adelaide only has eight starts to her name so her best is still ahead of her and have loved the way she has trialled ahead of her return. She has an abundance of speed to put herself into the race and if the track is rattling again, proving hard to make ground, she is going to take catching.

Dangers: 1. Oxford Tycoon should have beaten Royalzel in a Midway two weeks ago having been pocketed the fence. There’s no such concerns here draw wide! Instead, it’s where he lands in the run. Would expect ‘Plan A’ to be positive. 2. Exceltic comes through that same Midway with his excuse being the 1300m. Suspect he does his best work on bone dry tracks too. Can run big late sectionals. 9. Either Oar rates a mention given she was also in that blanket finish. 6. Cobia was posted deep throughout at Hawkesbury last start when an even money favourite. Forgive him that. 13. Lovemetender drops back from Group company in the Silver Shadow to a BM72 and carries no weight.

How to play it: Barossa Rosa WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Barossa Rosa trialling at Wyong

Keen to see what 7. Silent Impact can do out to a trip given he is sired by Maurice and out of an Oaks winner (Hollow Bullet). There was plenty of substance to what he did at Goulburn on debut over 1000m before backing that up at Rosehill out to 1200m. He tucked in behind a genuine early speed before accelerating clear late. 5. Military Expert sat outside of the leader but couldn’t go on with it, producing the most disappointing run in his short career. Back in fifth and sixth were Coastwatch and King Of Sparta. The gelding hasn’t raced for seven weeks and jumps from 1200m to 1500m but if there’s one stable you want to be training a horse in that scenario is Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Was given a hard trial over 1000m at Gosford to tune up.

Dangers: It’d be no surprise to see 4. Giannis springboard off what he did in Queensland as a two-year-old to go to a new level at three. It’s happened time and time again with Chris Waller’s juveniles. First up over 1500m suggests he has done plenty of work and he went to the line locked together with 1. Tiger Of Malay in the G1 JJ Atkins back in June. All honours to Tiger Of Malay in the Up & Coming giving Coastwatch 8kg but the map looks a little tricky here, albeit James McDonald sticks. 10. Alegron resumed as a gelding at Newcastle first up and although it was only a maiden, it was arrogant and the win of a horse that won’t be out of place in this.

How to play it: Silent Impact WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"Really keen to see what he can do out in trip."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray fancies an unbeaten horse in Saturday's Dulcify Stakes at Kembla Grange @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/Wz74cv2Zjc

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 10, 2021

4. Entriviere could simply prove a cut above these mares. That’s the gamble. To counter that is the fact she missed the Toy Shoy with mild lameness. The bonus for punters is that we have got to see the exciting Kiwi trial up since where she didn’t look to have any issues when putting her rivals away. There is simply no better placed horse on Saturday at Kembla Grange either with the 107 rater carrying 2.5kg less than 1. Forbidden Love under the conditions of the race. The five-year-old mare has won five of her seven starts with one of those defeats coming at the hands of Fasika in her only prior Australian run. Given she was four deep throughout, albeit on a Randwick track where you wanted to be well away from the inside come that stage of the meeting, she lost little in defeat.

Dangers: Great News was the pick of the runs in the Toy Show, and she franked the form with an equally luckless second in the Mona Lisa, but outside of her there was a lot to like about the runs of 5. Fituese, 8. Written Beauty and Forbidden Love. Don’t think the latter can give these mares all weight and a head start so she’ll keep for third up. Fituese has to prove she runs a strong 1200m with her one previous crack at the trip inconclusive as it was a heavy track. 7. Seasons was too bad to be true while 6. Tailleur had every chance. 9. Marboosha is an underrated mare and won well first up last preparation while 12. Vangelic shouldn’t be underestimated either, even though 1400m is more her go.

How to play it: Entriviere WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Entriviere winning a Randwick trial

It’s an irresistible set up for 10. Big Parade . On the back of breaking the Kembla track record over 1200m first up with 61kg, he drops to 53.5kg, draws to find the rail again and strikes another firm Kembla track. The quality of horse breathing down his neck late is very different to last start in BM88 company but it mightn’t matter. He could be off and gone again. The five-year-old was gelded mid preparation the last time he was in work but suspect we really only saw the benefit of that this time back as he settled so well in front. It helped that he got complete control from the outset, before producing a 10.90s last 200m split, according to Punters Intelligence. There’s no catching that. There looks to be enough speed in this to at least keep him honest but if he gets any level of control, it’s going to take something special to run him down.

Dangers: Enter 6. Private Eye . Don’t let the narrow margin fool you, what this four-year-old did in the Show County first up was exceptional. He overcame a slow run race, clocking a 32.74s last 600m split to grab 11. Embracer on the line. Here he faces the prospect of being last in the run rising just 100m. Will need the leaders to overcook it but if they do, no horse will be finishing faster. 3. Roheryn and 4. Madam Rouge are both dynamic fresh horses, 2. Icebath is bang on target for her spring goals but typically takes a couple of runs to peak while 5. Nimalee showed she can absorb pressure first up last preparation.

How to play it: Big Parade WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Big Parade winning at Kembla last start

Impossible to be bullish given the two favourites have their first run at three but at the odds, in the corner of 4. Converge. Concede that 1200m is a long way short of what will end up this gelding’s optimum trip but his slashing finish over 1400m at Eagle Farm over the winter and the way he accelerated clear of his rivals in a 1000m trial at Randwick suggests he’ll be sharp enough. The other bonus is the cosy draw giving Tim Clark the chance to tuck in behind the speed without being forced to take hold. We saw the difference when the son of Frankel was ridden with cover. He came into his own in Queensland, producing a breathtaking win in the G1 JJ Atkins. That was a very different Converge to the one we saw over the autumn in Sydney. Judge him off that.

Dangers: There is no such query with 2. Anamoe over 1200m given his Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper performances, plus the way he mowed down Profiteer in the Todman. A setback saw him miss the San Domenico Stakes with just the one public 742m trial under his belt. He is a colt worth too much to Godolphin to head into this underdone, however. 8. Remarque has a history of trialling brilliantly so not reading too much into his most recent. 3. Captivant couldn’t have done much more in the San Domenico first up. The jury is out with 1. Stay Inside.

How to play it: Converge WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Converge’s latest Randwick trial

8. Count De Rupee only has one failure to his name on a good track, and that was behind Ayrton at Group Three level. There is a lot to like about the way this race sets up for the four-year-old. He is on his home track, and won so impressively at Kembla over 1200m two preparations ago, strikes a firm surface, flies fresh and draws to get the run of the race with 53kg on his back after the claim of Brock Ryan. First up last preparations he had the unenviable task of chasing tearaway leader Marway, before that horse subsequently panelled his rivals in the Wagga Town Plate. Punters Intelligence shows that Count De Rupee stopped the clock at a sizzling 32.61s for his last 600m that day. Look out late if he repeats that here.

Dangers: 11. Mazu falls off the Golden Rose path having failed in the Rosebud and the San Domenico but those form lines could stack up for this back to benchmark company against older horses. Has only had four starts and his two-year-old form lines through Conrad and Tiger Of Malay read well now. 6. Ventura Ocean produced the run of a coming winner first up behind Frosty Rocks. That was seven weeks ago now, however. 4. Emanate did enough first up in the Toy Show and has a history of improving sharply second up, as we saw last campaign.

How to play it: Count De Rupee WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Count De Rupee first up last preparation

9. Brookspire faces a tricky draw on paper but drawn to the immediate outside of 1. Academy , she should get a free cart across. From her limited race track appearances, she seems to do her best work from prominent positions. She was entitled to win first up on the Kensington track given she was backed into odds on, lobbed into the box seat from barrier 1, the leader rolled off the fence and she stuck to the fence which was on fire, but loved her strength through the line. Punters Intelligence reveals her last 200m split of 11.77s on heavy ground was by far the quickest in the race. Dipped her toe into black type racing at three, including a luckless eighth in the G1 Oaks at Morphettville and suspect it won’t be long before she’s back in that company.

Dangers: 6. Kingsheir speared through the pack to run a narrow third at Kembla two weeks ago. Being shuffled back in the run proved costly. Expect Tim Clark to be closer from barrier 1. His first up win was a beauty. The only query is whether he is looking for a touch further now third up. Academy was taken on in the middle stages last start and his run was much better than it reads on paper. Expect aggressive tactics from the wide draw. Don’t discount the prospect of him running his rivals into the ground. 7. Loveplanet and 5. Celestial Falls will have a role to play in the speed of this race too. 8. Wairere Falls continues to race well while 3. Night Of Power could get the last crack at bolter’s odds.

How to play it: Brookspire WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Brookspire winning well first up

All the fields, form and replays for Kembla Grange on Saturday