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STAY ON TRACK - SELECTIONS

Saturday's 10-race Rosehill Gardens program boasts eight Stakes races featuring the $1.5 million Group 1-Kia Tancred Stakes (2400m) which sees the return of intrepid traveller and 2023 Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Dubai Honour who is the $3.20 TAB favourite (in from $3.60) ahead of Vauban ($4.60 to $4) and Arapaho ($6).

The rail is out 6m the entire circumference with the track rated a Soft 5. But be prepared as the forecast for Friday and Saturday is for heavy rainfall on both days with a top of 23 degrees forecast on raceday.

This week’s selections: BG

BEST BET
Race 8, No.1 - DUBAI HONOUR ($3.20 favourite on TAB)

Saturday 29th March – ROSEHILL GARDENS

2. MAZU ($8 on TAB) is racing like he wants 1200m and a wet track. That sees him well placed on Saturday third-up with the weather forecast in his favour. This six-year-old found 1000m on good tracks a touch too sharp first and second-up but he hasn’t been beaten far. He kept finding the line in a sprint home in the Challenge Stakes three weeks ago. The horse has a great record at Rosehill from eaelier in his career, should tag a hot speed from the inside draw and is well paired again with Nash Rawiller. The 59.5kg is a leveller but he is a genuine weight-for-age sprinter. The more rain that falls the shorter he is likely to be in betting given that his record on heavy tracks reads 8:5-1-1.

Globetrotting seven-year-old 1. DUBAI HONOUR ($3.20 favourite) returns to Australia having won the Ranvet and Queen Elizabeth in 2023 for William Haggas. Now a couple of years older he has relished the mile and a half, hence kicking off in a Tancred. He has added a Group One win in France to his name since he last travelled to Sydney. Last campaign he was luckless in Newcastle in preparation for a tilt at the Hong Kong Vase, hitting the line hard to run second. Tom Marquand has a lot of confidence in Dubai Honour and the barrier looks perfect and the prospect of a rain-affected track only enhances his claims. A lofty benchmark rating of 123 puts him in an elite category. Via Sistina is 124. The next highest here is 114.

10. DUCASSE ($12) had his chance in the Ajax Stakes last start but there looks to have been a big overcorrection price-wise. The four-year-old was sent around a $3.20 favourite two weeks ago and after stalking the speed, he boxed away to be beaten 2.6 lengths. That was on the back of an impressive first-up win as a gelding. The point of difference heading into Saturday is the likelihood of a wet track as he loves soft and heavy ground. The fresh win was his first away from rain-affected going. Pending rainfall the barrier mightn’t mean much come the second last race. He doesn’t have a jockey at time of writing but he has been scratched from the Muswellbrook Gold Cup (Friday) already which hints that he’ll line up here.

Suspect 1400m could be the sweet spot for 4. KIBOU ($9.50). He shouldn’t have lost too many admirers first-up despite finishing second at Kembla Grange to General Salute. Respect that he jumped a well backed $3.10 chance. He sat outside the leader and was picked off late. It’s been 79 weeks since the five-year-old won but keen to see him out to this trip second-up and getting back onto a wet track. His maiden win came on a heavy track and he put 3.3 lengths on his rivals. He also won an Up And Coming beating Golden Mile on a Soft 6 at Rosehill. He’ll have no shortage of company up front here with speed engaged but like the wide draw which gives his regular rider Regan Bayliss options come the last race.

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Rosehill Gardens meeting