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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.

The rail is out 4m 2000m-1600m and 6m the remainder. The form has been done for a Good track.

2. Obelos has won two on the bounce, winning at Kembla Grange last start, albeit at big odds, in a BM64 over 1500m. The form from that race is rock solid with the fourth-placed Satin Rain subsequently running a close second to Castel Sant’angelo while seventh (My Blue Jeans) and 12th (Ocean Waltzer) have won themselves. Goulburn-based James Ponsonby is new to the training ranks but has had three winners from his last seven runners, and has only had this six-year-old for three runs. The son of New Approach is exceptionally well weighted with 55.5kg after the claim of Tom Sherry to be just 1.5kg above the minimum, despite a benchmark rating of 69. Shouldn’t be any excuses map-wise either given he has drawn to park in behind the speed.

Dangers: 4. Amy’s Shadow will get a long way back from the draw and is four weeks between runs but was so strong through the line to win a Highway last start over 1400m. Has had a tickover trial since at Scone. Willing to put a pen through the last start run of 10. Tempel One given he was posted throughout. Gets a senior jockey and his win prior was strong. The knock is he that he is a Class 1 horse in a Class 3. 7. Charmmebaby has two on the trot and wasn’t beaten far by Spiranac prior to that. The mile looks fine and she’s never raced better. Import 1. Perfect Illusion hasn’t really threatened in his Australian career to date but there were positive signs first up at Kembla. 6. Rent A Rock is a place hope.

How to play it: Obelos WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Obelos winning at Kembla last start

1. Wild Ruler returned with a strong win in the Listed Heritage Stakes first up. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained sprinter sat outside of the leader 3. Osamu to put his rivals away. They didn’t crawl in front so there was merit to this colt’s late strength. Punters Intelligence reveals a last 200m of 11.07s, and he was running right through the line over the 1100m. That was after trialling up nicely. The son of Snitzel is even better placed here under set weights conditions. He beat Osamu by two lengths yet meets him 2kg better. James McDonald stays aboard and although drawn widest in the small field of six, it looks ideal given the lack of pressure. He’ll just slide across on his own time. Don’t think Wild Ruler is far off the top tier three-year-olds and he gets the chance to prove that here.

Dangers: 2. Doubtland is the highest rated horse in this race given he is already a two-time Group winner. The latest of those was down the Flemington straight in the Danehill Stakes, bouncing back from a disappointing effort in the San Domenico first up. The queries being a month between runs, whether he wants 1400m, the form out of the Danehill (hasn’t provided a subsequent winner, albeit Amish Boy and Personal have run second) and all three of his wins have been on wet ground. His failure was on a good track. Doubtland still looks to have 4. On The Lead covered from last start, and 6. Red Stiletto is looks outclassed.

How to play it: Wild Ruler WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"I don't think he's far off the top tier three-year-olds and he gets the chance to prove that here."

📹 BEST BET: Could @BradJGray's best at @royalrandwick put his hand up for the final spot in the #TABEverest? @tabcomau @SnowdenRacing1 pic.twitter.com/slvg4jcKFV

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 8, 2020

Concede that the lack of tempo up front for backmarker 9. Criaderas is a concern here but given the class of race he’s likely to be contesting in six months’ time, he is irresistible in benchmark company with just 52.5kg. The four-year-old was beaten in a BM78 last start but only gained more admiration on the back of it due to the strength of his close. The son of Lonhro couldn’t work into the race from the 800m with the field’s rank outsider holding him in and although he made a late surge, he’d left his run too late. His last 200m (11.23s) was two lengths faster than the next best. Rachel King, who has had 20 rides for James Cummings this season, for seven wins, will slide the gelding into the race now he is third up and in this small field, he has the talent to still round these up.

Dangers: 8. Bound To Win is dangerous because if she jumps cleanly, she could lead, dictate and kick for home. We know she has a handy turn of foot. The four-year-old made a mess of the start first up behind Athiri and thought she did a good job to finish where she did. Her late splits support that. 1. Bottega would have won first up if he wasn’t held up on the fence for a number of critical strides. The query is staying at 1400m and with 59.5kg, he gives away 7kg to up and comer Criaderas. How do you line up a French import that’s won her last three on synthetic tracks over 2000m? Throw into the mix two very quiet trials form Chris Waller and the market really is your only guide with 5. Bebeautiful.

How to play it: Criaderas WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Criaderas rattling home last start

It’s not the first time many of these have met and it’s generally decided by whichever horse gets the right run. There’s not a lot between them. Like the way 6. Vegas Jewel hit the line to just miss behind Entente a fortnight ago. She’s fourth up now, drawn well again and gets the blinkers on. The four-year-old looks ready to win now out to 2000m. Her first up run was outstanding, back in August for two-kilo claimer Tom Stockdale, before she raced a touch flat second up, albeit in a leader dominated race won by 4. Badoosh with 12. Quintessa in second. Stockdale jumps back on now. The signs are there that this daughter of Shocking is getting back to the form that saw her run second in a G2 Wakeful as a three-year-old.

Dangers: 8. She’s Ideel hit the line sweetly in that same race last start giving away an impossible start. Her last 600m was comfortably the quickest in the race, but looks likely to find herself in a similar spot here from the wide draw. In an open race include 2. Rapido Chaparro in any multiples. Needs a dry track and to find the front. Hasn’t got either this time back. 13. Archanna won well at the midweeks last start and looks to finally be putting it all together. It's significant that James McDonald sticks.

How to play it: Vegas Jewel WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Vegas Jewel behind Entente last start

2. Peltzer has been mixing it with the A graders all preparation. This is a much softer assignment, where he should be able to put himself on top of the speed, as suggested by co-trainer Gerald Ryan earlier in the week. The son of So You Think has run in three brutally run races – the San Domenico, Run To The Rose and then the Golden Rose – and found himself right in the red zone. The trifecta in the Golden Rose all settled out the back. The map here looks to lend itself to a much more leisurely run 1500m. That could even see Peltzer lead, as we saw when winning twice at Randwick as a two-year-old. There is a history of this race being won by Golden Rose runners, most recently Impending (2016, 3rd) and Press Statement (2015, 5th).

Dangers: 3. Prime Star has run very strong closing splits his last two but has to stretch that to 1500m, jumping from 1200m. That’s not easy. 4. Global Quest’s poor run in the Golden Rose puts a question mark over the Dulcify form, where 5. Jet Propulsion ran third. Could that see 6. Acrophobic measure up in a race like this? Comes out of much weaker races but has been finding the line and sets up to run a new peak in this third up.

How to play it: Peltzer WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Peltzer in the Golden Rose

It might be a case of out of sight out of mind for 3. Dawn Passage but don’t forget that his form last preparation saw him jump a heavily backed favourite in the G1 Stradbroke the last time we saw him. It wasn’t to be with the son of Dawn Approach run over late. Perhaps he’d come to the end of his preparation too. Prior to that the four-year-old’s wins in the Hawkebsury Guineas, Inglis Guineas and Fred Best Classic (beating 7. Subpoenaed) were arrogant. He can sit wide and still quicken brilliantly, he can sit outside of the lead, lead himself and work early and still find at the finish. Dawn Passage gives away a fitness edge to his rivals being first up but on the back of two solid trials and with the Waterhouse and Bott polish, he’ll be ready to go.

Dangers: 1. Alligator Blood is a Group One winner. He’s the class runner. Wouldn’t read too much into his defeat over 1100m first up as it was well short of his best trip and he was in need of the hitout. That said, first and second have subsequently failed from that race. The main knock though, is the price. It all fell into place for Subpoenaed in the Golden Pendant and she delivered. Looks well placed. Don’t discount 2. Flit. In the past she has produced her best over 1200m and on the fresh side. That’s the set up she gets here and she ran a lot better last start than her finishing position suggests. She was never in it from the wide draw.

How to play it: Dawn Passage WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Dawn Passage trialling at Randwick recently

3. Love Tap is four from four, proving too classy for his rivals in the G3 Gloaming Stakes out to 1800m. That was on the back of an assertive Nash Rawiller ride where he took the Tapit gelding straight to the front. Half way down the straight Love Tap looked to have a fight on his hands but through the line he was going away again. This is harder again, and he’ll have to produce another peak, but every time co-trainers Richard and Michael Freedman send him to the races, he goes to another level. The first three of those wins were in country grade but as it’s been well documented, he gapped his rivals and smashed the clock. Love Tap has drawn wide but he is a versatile horse. It will just force Nash to be aggressive from the outset, which is how the gun hoop rides best.

Dangers: The only rival I could half entertain turning the tables on Love Tap from the Gloaming is 15. Favreau but he’s first emergency. Only two fillies have ever won this race but they’ve both been in the past four years. 13. Montefilia simply outstayed Hungry Heart to win the Flight Stakes last Saturday, winning in the manner that she’d be better again out to 2000m. That was only second up off a six week freshen too. Like how 1. Cherry Tortoni has hit the line in his two runs back, the latest splitting Glenfiddich and Holyfield, the latter of those a comfortable winner of the Ming Dynasty at Rosehill which ties in well for this. James Cummings wouldn’t be running 9. Choir here to make up the numbers while 6. Lion’s Roar and 11. Socrates are both place hopes.

How to play it: Love Tap WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Love Tap winning the Gloaming Stakes

There’s chances right down the page in this but like the timing of 2. Positive Peace third up out to the mile for Bjorn Baker. The five-year-old has drawn barrier 3 and 1 at her two runs back and it’s seen her cluttered up behind runners. She went to the line in the Sheraco with plenty more to give while last start she couldn’t get a crack until the bird had flown. There was a lot to like about her last 50m through the line, however, behind Subpoenaed, finishing alongside 9. Emeralds. This sets up much better drawn on the immediate outside of the leader here 4. Greysful Glamour which will see her park on her shoulder. That’s when she’s been at her best. Last preparation she won five on the bounce including the G2 Emancipation.

Dangers: Not sure where to start with the dangers! 5. All Saints’ Eve was a dominant winner of the Tibbie but was given a peach from James McDonald. His ride here will have to be even better from the draw. Liked how 12. House Of Cartier found the line there. Could be a blowout, but am probably going off a run too early. 3. Asiago had no luck. 10. Scarlett Dream and 13. Nudge both ran similar races in the Shannon Stakes which looks a strong reference with I Am Superman hard in the G1 Toorak market while Riodini and Looks Like Elvis both subsequently ran top five in the G1 Epsom. Wouldn’t be surprised to see 14. Rocha Clock bounce back second up, after a disappointing first up showing. She did that last preparation.

How to play it: Positive Peace WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Look for Positive Peace in this last start replay

We can conclude two things about 4. Superium now that we’ve seen him 13 times. He is a sprinter and needs firm ground. That should leave him with no excuses first up over 1000m on a good track. The four-year-old ran on four heavy tracks over the winter and progressively got beaten by further into the campaign as he lost confidence in the wet. Joe Pride tipped him out thereafter. Take out all of his wet track runs and all of those beyond 1100m and his record reads 4:3-0-0 with the defeat a 0.6L fourth in a Listed race behind Dawn Passage. It’s worth noting that he’s only had one trial this time back, instead of three prior to last preparation, presumably with this 1000m assignment in mind. Maps perfectly to camp in behind a very hot speed.

Dangers: 11. Plaquette is 1100m back to 1000m second up and six weeks between runs (she was scratched at the gates from a midweeker) which is not ideal but she is another one that’ll appreciate the hectic speed up front here. Punters Intelligence reveals she clocked 32.98s when charging to victory first up. Has won out to 1250m in the past. She’d be top pick if this was 1100m. 6. Mr Mosaic is very quick and a genuine 1000m specialist. The scratchings have helped his cause immensely. 9. Kookabaa looks a big price give his form and the run he's likely to get in this.

How to play it: Superium WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Superium trialling at Hawkesbury recently

All the fields, form and replays for Spring Champion Stakes Day at Randwick on Saturday