By Neil Evans
Track expected Soft 5 and Rail True
Race 1 4YO & UP MAIDEN HCP (1200m): |
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Wyong mare 5. Oakfield Romance won't get a better chance to snap the long wait at her 23rd start. Has found the line well in much deeper maidens than this, and top country hoop goes on and blinkers come off.
Dangers: Progressive 4YO 2. Essoess closed off nicely resuming. Carries 1kg less here in a thinner race, and winkers go on. Honest mare 8. Crazeelil finished a whisker in front of the top selection last start after leading, and again drawn to roll forward, with blinkers removed. Keep safe 4YO mares 9. Eroteme and 12. Single Charge both resuming off a lengthy break and trial.
How to play it: Oakfield Romance to win and quinella 2 and 5. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 3YO MAIDEN HCP (1000m): |
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Tough race, with a few first starters and plenty resuming. Like Wyong 3YO 4. Tinka's Lad on debut for a strong provincial stable. Has been taken along slowly at the trials, winning the latest over this trip.
Dangers: Good filly 3. The Neon Knight resumes with a big weight off a nice trial win. Not a noted fresh performer, but looks forward enough, and the form around a string of second placings last prep is strong for a race like this. Local debutant filly 10. Par Avion is best of the rest off a trial win despite drawing wide.
How to play it: Tinka's Lad to win and quinella 3 and 4. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1400m): |
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Doesn't get much easier here over a longer journey. Improving 3YO Taree filly 13. Spirited Charlize did it tough on debut at home after blowing the start, but showed rapid improvement hitting the line in a deeper maiden. Carries the same weight here.
Dangers: Expect improvement at third start from Scone 3YO 5. Tipping Point despite facing a tough draw. Held his ground okay in two provincial runs. Getting fitter and winkers have been applied. Liked the first-up run at Newcastle from 4YO mare 7. Lasting Grace. Home track mare 6. Bouquets has mixed her form this prep, but draws to get plenty of cover midfield and will be finishing on; while watch the betting on 3YO first starter 11. Lovetheinvasion who won a lead-up trial in smart fashion, but has to overcome the widest barrier.
How to play it: Spirited Charlize each way and trifecta 5,7,13/5,6,7,13/5,6,7,11,13. Odds and Evens: Odds a special
Race 4 BM 66 HCP (1400m): |
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Very keen on Newcastle 4YO 3. Misterzee third-up. Has powered home in two runs back, just edged out by the stablemate at home last start, and drops 3kg for a race that isn't much tougher.
Dangers: Improving 3YO filly 4. Pink Beau finished best to win a CL1 at Taree third-up, and while this is a bit tougher, she's on the rise. Include 5YO mare 6. The Crimson Idol who worked home okay in a Heat of the Summer Provincial Series, and also well treated at the weights after a claim.
How to play it: Misterzee to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Misterzee runs second at Newcastle on November 24
Race 5 BM 58 HCP (2100m): |
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Open battle for the restricted stayers. Tough Muswellbrook mare 4. Ludivine was good late in a stronger BM 58 at home. Keeps improving as the distances rise, and can settle a little closer here from the inside barrier.
Dangers: Incredibly Taree 5YO 3. Phylave went 38 races without winning before saluting in his last two sailing home from off the speed. Bit more depth here, and will have to slot in from a tricky gate. Evergreen 8YO 5. Kilmarnock is on the six day back-up getting out to a more suitable trip, with a handy 3kg claim, but likely to drift a long way back from the wide draw. Stablemate 6YO to top selection 9. Apache Junction improved this grade at Scone last start when ridden a little quieter; while 6. Lucky For Some is hard fit, and will appreciate the longer trip after doing his best work late in two handy CL2 affairs.
How to play it: Ludivine to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 CLASS 1 HCP (1000m): |
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Back to the sprint trip, and very forgiving of 4YO Wyong mare 4. Trojan Angel who is much better than her poor first-up run at Gosford. Will find this easier, and the trainer has made key gear changes.
Dangers: If 1. Rumpshaker shows his customary speed from a wide barrier, he'll be hard to run down, resuming off a lengthy break. First-up last time was only a length off a smart one who went on to win bigger races. Big watch on ex-Victorian 4YO mare 2. Careless Whisper having her first run for new provincial stable, and was scratched from Sunday's Nowra meeting to be saved for this. Speedy 4YO mare 6. Owhatacrumpet scraped home leading all the way over 900m, and gets a 1.5kg claim.
How to play it: Trojan Angel to win and trifecta 1,4/1,2,4,6/1,2,4,6
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 CLASS 2 HCP (1600m): |
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We close with an open and competitive battle over the mile. Improving 5YO 2. Onemore Sapphire closed off strongly first-up off a long break in a BM 58 finishing right behind Misterzee who is well fancied earlier in the meeting. Senior rider goes on from a nice trailing draw, and he can make light of what so far is an ordinary second-up record.
Dangers: Improving 4YO 1. Battle Guardian only needs to slot in from a wide draw third-up to be a serious threat. Charged home late in a stronger race at Dubbo, and carries the same weight after the claim. Include 4. Political who has been freshened up back in trip; while 4YO mare 5. Vol Au Vent has won two of her last three, but taking on some better ones here.
How to play it: Onemore Sapphire to win. Odds and Evens: Split
Onemore Sapphire runs fourth at Newcastle on November 24
All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Tuncurry meeting