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Neil Evans

Track Heavy 9/10 and rail out 6m from 1000m to 300m into a cut/away so likely on or near the speed early before gradual trend to the outside

Big and open field of maidens on a very heavy track to kick us off. The lone 2YO in the field, 14. Shahi from the in-form Maher-Eustace stable can go close second-up after finishing off okay at Kembla, and in well at the weights after rider's claim. Has trialled nicely in Soft 6 ground, and sire was very good on wet tracks.

Dangers: Scone 3YO gelding and first starter 3. Brash (Murtajill x Sweet Starlet by Starcraft) has trialled big, ridden out to finish over the top in the latest. Draws the inside, and bred to handle conditions on the dam's side. Tamworth 3YO gelding 1. Halcyon House was big odds when finishing hard on debut at Scone, and was scratched from Newcastle on Monday to be saved for this. Gosford 3YO filly 5. Last Chance Dance improved sharply third-up after racing against stronger, and the blinkers come off, although first time in the ground is an obvious query. Another debutant, Rosehill filly 9. Snitzinnati (Snitzel x Soiree Girl by Rory's Jester) from the strong Gerald Ryan yard trialled well in Soft 6 ground, but draws towards the outside; while Scone filly 8. Qukes would need to improve significantly off her debut run at Taree, but is bred to handle rain-affected ground being by Swiss Ace out of a More Than Ready mare.

How to play it: Shahi to win and first four 3,14/1,3,5,8,9,14/1,3,5,8,9,14/1,3,5,8,9,14. Odds and Evens (First 2): Split.

Doesn't get any easier here, with many having poor form. Newcastle filly 8. Doomsie can strike at second start after working home late at giant odds first-up at Taree, but this is a big drop in quality.

Dangers: Another Novacastrian, 3YO gelding 9. Krayzelburg has been very disappointing since spring considering he's jumped anywhere from a $2.50 favourite to $7.00. Obvious fitness edge, although never seen a rain-affected track, but UK sire was a Group 1 winner in soft ground.

How to play it: Doomsie each way. Odds and Evens: Split.

Very open again, with a stack of hopes. Emerging 3YO Gosford filly 11. Fonce Factor was terrific first-up here surging home from a mile back to be beaten a long neck, and is bred to handle the wet. Both trainer and rider are under-rated.

Dangers: Newcastle 3YO gelding 3. Captain Solo only has to handle the ground to be in the finish. Top effort resuming when edged out by more fancied stablemate before rock solid in a handy maiden at Gosford. This is weaker, and sire was high class in the wet. Progressive 3YO Wyong filly 14. Toguchi hasn't missed a place in three runs so far, just missing two back on a Heavy 10 at Taree before grabbed in the final stride last start. Was scratched from Newcastle on Monday after drawing wide, but won't want to drift too far back here from the inside barrier. Scone 3YO gelding 4. Fender (Toronado x Ceccanti by Arena) has spent plenty of time at the trials winning the latest, and draws a good gate for his debut. Sire was a dual Group 1 winner and unbeaten in soft ground. Hawkesbury 4YO mare 8. Moinda has hit the line hard in two runs back, and already shown a liking for wet tracks. Expect sharp improvement third-up and drawn well from 3YO Rosehill gelding 7. Vulpes who hasn't done much in two runs back, but chased home smart Opacity who then bolted in a BM 64 at Gosford; while Wyong mare 9. Oakfield Romance has been placed 10 times from 15 starts. Comes out of some handy maidens, and also suited in heavy ground.

How to play it: Fonce Factor each way and first four 3,11,14/3,4,7,8,9,11,14/3,4,7,8,9,11,14/3,4,7,8,9,11,14. Odds and Evens: Split.

Several chances over the middle distance. Emerging 3YO Randwick gelding 8. Holy Sunday was very good fourth-up at Scone charging home from the back in a dominant win. Extra trip ideal, bred to get through the ground, and should appreciate another long run in.

Dangers: Improving 4YO Wyong gelding 7. Hidden Hills only has to get through the ground to be competitive despite drawing off the track. Capped consistent form with a dominant maiden win at Taree. Rival Wyong 5YO 2. Captain's Legend has a poor winning strike rate, but can run a race fourth-up coming back from tougher company. Yet another Wyong gelding 4. Triple Choice is closing in on a win after hitting the ling hard in his last two at BM 66 level, although up in weight and a query in the ground.

How to play it: Holy Sunday to win. Odds and Evens: Split.

Holy Sunday wins at Scone on January 30

Back to the short-course in a thin sprint. Dubbo 4YO mare 3. Bellszov Bourke won two straight at home before well outclassed in a Highway at Randwick. Drops back to a more suitable distance, and while never raced in ground like this, sire produced plenty of good wet-trackers, and dam was a two-time winner in heavy ground.

Dangers: Wyong 4YO gelding 4. Gidgee Guy has plenty of speed and did win last time here over this trip. Closely related to top selection, and also unproven in the heavy, but dam was a beauty in soft ground; while 4YO Wyong mare 6. Oakfield Gettem can improve fourth-up with a stack of gear changes.

How to play it: Bellszov Bourke to win. Odds and Evens: Split.

Another tough and open race, with little heavy track form. Gosford 4YO mare 2. Take To Heart resumes off a long and break and two handy trials, and only win so far came first-up in heavy ground.

Dangers: Warwick Farm mare 3. Fighting Faith has ability and drops in grade, but will need to improve off an ordinary first-up run at Kembla. Was preferred here by leading trainer than Newcastle on Monday. Newcastle 3YO 7. Salsa Dreaming resumes off two quiet trials, and likes to drift back and finish late, although hasn't fired yet on wet tracks.

How to play it: Take To Heart to win and box exacta 2,3,7. Odds and Evens: Split.

Competitive Country C'ship preview, and there's a stack of chances headed by 4YO Scone mare 9. Charlotte's Heart who has a smart strike rate, and resumes off two typical held-together trials. Draws to get the right run, and while inexperienced in heavy ground, sire has been a prolific producer of good wet trackers.

Dangers: Lightly raced 7YO Tamworth gelding 2. Beauty Best is drawn wide, but only missed narrowly in a BM 84 first-up at home before trialling in smart fashion at Scone, and already a soft track winner. High class 4YO Scone mare 3. Emanuela resumes off a quiet trial, and normally performs fresh. Has more than enough ability, but all four wins from only 11 starts have come on firm ground. Local 4YO mare 10. Trophies Galore is another one returning off a break. Something of a specialist here around this distance, and should handle the conditions; while lightly raced 5YO Tamworth gelding 5. Pat's Nipper gets in okay at the weights after rider's claim for a Highway winner, and can figure second-up, although unproven in the wet.

How to play it: Charlotte's Heart to win; and first four 2,9/2,3,5,9,10/2,3,5,9,10/2,3,5,9,10. Odds and Evens: Split.

Tough sprint to finish, and they'll be spread right across the track by now. Warwick Farm 4YO mare 6. Vinci Lady returns off two smart wet track trials, and did beat a handy maiden field on debut as a 2YO.

Dangers: Smart Newcastle filly 2. Wild Fortune resumes off an open trial, and bolted in on debut at Scone last winter. Untried in this ground, but most of the Not A Single Doubt breed get through it. Tamworth 4YO and former Victorian 4. Blazing Tycoon resumes off an easy trial, and did win comfortably on debut in Soft 6 ground last winter.

How to play it: Vinci Lady to win. Odds and Evens: Evens.

Vinci Lady runs second in a Warwick Farm trial on February 3

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Muswellbrook meeting