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Neil Evans' Tips For Grafton (Tuesday)

By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and Rail out 3m

Race 1 BM 66 HCP (2370m):

We start with a competitive staying battle, and vastly improved 6YO Coffs Harbour gelding 3. Real Time Warrior can make it two straight on a track and rating he loves. Swept home for a dominant win here three weeks back in a similar-graded race, and five of his seven career wins from 38 starts have come at this track.

Dangers: Newcastle 6YO and perennial favourite around this grade 1. Urbino couldn't run down the winner in a CL3 at Kempsey fourth-up, but has won twice this prep and suited over the longer trip, although senior and regular rider getting off is a query. Port mare 5. Zellymay has never raced better holding off Urbino at Kempsey. Has won two from five at this track, but asked to carry 3kg more.

How to play it: Real Time Warrior to win and quinella 1 and 3. Odds and Evens: Odds a special

Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1106m):

Back to the sprint trip for a tricky maiden, and there's any number of chances. Murwillumbah stallion 2. Rockdog looks well over the odds after working home okay in his last couple, and stronger rider goes on.

Dangers: Local mare 4. Demykani Miss ran way above her big and unwanted price resuming only being collared late by a handy one, and carries 1kg less here jumping from the same barrier. Home track mare 6. Holiday In Dubai can mix her form, and was well beaten into third in that same race as Demykani Miss, although gets some weight relief with a more experienced rider jumping on. Coffs 5YO 13. Show's Pride has only placed twice from 10 starts, but was only beaten a long neck resuming here, and carries a whopping 6kg less after the claim.

How to play it: box trifecta 2,4,6,13. Odds and Evens: Evens

Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1710m):

Tough tactical battle here for the maidens over a middle distance, with little speed on. Improving Wyong 4YO 4. Oakfield Cherokee can peak at third start after working home nicely from well back in a deeper maiden at Muswellbrook. Trainer has made key gear changes, and scratched him from Scone on Tuesday to run here.

Dangers: Ballina 4YO and ex-Victorian 3. Kawuneechee found the line impressively in his first NSW run at this track, and is drawn to get a lovely trail a few lengths off the speed. Kempsey 5YO 5. Red Intuition lines up for his 32nd start having just been run down as a well backed fancy here two weeks back. Should be able to get over from a wider draw and dictate again, but whether he can hold them off carrying 59kg is a big query. Armidale 4YO 6. Scatman is close to breaking through after attacking the line well in his last couple at home.

How to play it: Oakfield Cherokee to win and quinella 3 and 4. Odds and Evens: Split


Oakfield Cherokee runs fourth at Muswellbrook on November 1

Race 4 MAIDEN PLATE (1410m):

Not a lot of depth here which augurs well for Lismore filly 13. Rose Bouquet who is primed to break through at fourth start getting out to an ideal trip. Has hit the line hard in her last couple, and drawn to get plenty of cover back in the field. Only needs clear air from the 400m.

Dangers: Local 4YO mare 10. Queens Do Dream has more ability than her lone placing from eight starts suggests. Incredibly, has worked home strongly into fourth in her last four, and hard fit from another useful trailing draw, she's the main threat third-up this prep. Include in exotics home track mare 9. La Cronica who draws the fence, and Armidale mare 11. Royal Delights who likes to drift back and attack the line late.

How to play it: Rose Bouquet to win and quinella 10 and 13. Odds and Evens: Split


Rose Bouquet runs third at Lismore on November 9

Race 5 CLASS 3 HCP (1410m):

Local 5YO gelding 7. Boyles gets a significant drop in weight for this tougher test second-up. Gets out to his pet distance, and has only missed a place once in his last five.

Dangers: Big watch on former SA-based 5YO mare 2. In Heart's Wake who has her first run for leading Armidale stable off two forward trials.

How to play it: Boyles to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 OPEN HCP (1410m):

Good deep race, and you can make a strong case for a few. Keen on Lismore 5YO gelding 12. Magic Wu third-up and significantly down in weight. Has hit the line hard in two runs since coming down from Nth Qld, and while this is a step up in quality, won't know himself carrying only 55kg and crucially drawn to get to the outside.

Dangers: Coffs 5YO 5. Lose The Snip is as consistent as they come, winning a BM 87 at Lismore three runs back before close-up in his next two. Will roll across from a wider gate, and sit on or just behind the speed. Far North Coast 7YO 2. Tivoli Street loves to settle back and attack the line. Has been very competitive in deeper races all prep, but up sharply to 61 kg from the inside draw leaves a question mark. Armidale 5YO 7. Rexx gave nothing else a chance from the front at home last start, but rises in weight, and this is a bit tougher. Local 6YO 9. Editors lost his spot in the Kempsey Cup and was never a factor getting home, but his two previous fast-finishing efforts were strong, and he sneaks down in the weights.

How to play it: Magic Wu to win and trifecta 2,5,12/2,5,7,9,12/2,5,7,9,12. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1206m):

Lightly raced 3YO Murwillumbah filly 3. Voodoo Crown didn't really let down first-up here, but she can improve sharply over a bit further with a stronger rider going on. Well over the odds.

Dangers: Eagle Farm-based 4YO 17. Degas is the obvious threat second-up after a fair effort in a stronger race at the Sunshine Coast. Improving mare and stablemate to top selection 12. Tilly's Star also looks well placed second-up after doing her best work late at Ballina. Be forgiving of local mare 6. Queenofthecastle who got shuffled back and missed the boat at Ballina, and can peak fourth-up, although has to slot in from a wide draw.

How to play it: Voodoo Crown each way and trifecta 3,12,17/3,12,17/3,6,12,17. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 8 CLASS 2 HCP (1710m):

Tricky one to finish. Gold Coast-based 4YO mare 4. Predictable Miss is ready to win again fifth-up after just missing in heavy ground in a good quality BM 66 at Muswellbrook.

Dangers: Far North Coast 5YO 3. Rumberella had the right run and surged home to win narrowly third-up. Drawn to get another sweet run, but more depth here. Look for Tamworth 5YO 6. Hardyo to finish hard out to this distance after rattling home over the mile in a thinner race at Moree.

How to play it: Predictable Miss to win. Odds and Evens: Split.

All the fields, form and replays for Tuesday's Grafton meeting

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